Cards predictions

Cards are a lower-liquidity, less efficiently priced market. We model total-booking probabilities from recent disciplinary records and referee tendencies.

Highest Cards probability this round

Match	Model %
Alaves vs Getafe prediction & probabilities (2026-08-15)	75.6%
Sevilla vs Vallecano prediction & probabilities (2026-08-15)	72.9%
Espanol vs Levante prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)	68.0%
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction & probabilities (2025-08-17)	64.9%
RC Deportivo vs Elche prediction & probabilities (2026-08-17)	64.5%
Real Madrid vs Sociedad prediction & probabilities (2026-08-26)	64.2%
Celta vs Osasuna prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)	64.1%
R. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)	64.1%
Aston Villa vs Newcastle prediction & probabilities (2025-08-16)	63.0%
Santander vs Villarreal prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)	62.4%
Valencia vs Betis prediction & probabilities (2026-08-25)	61.0%
Ath Madrid vs Malaga prediction & probabilities (2026-08-19)	59.9%
Bologna vs Lazio prediction & probabilities (2026-08-24)	59.2%
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford prediction & probabilities (2025-08-17)	59.1%
Roma vs Fiorentina prediction & probabilities (2026-08-24)	58.5%
Lens vs Auxerre prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)	58.1%
Fulham vs Chelsea prediction & probabilities (2026-08-24)	57.9%
Brighton vs Fulham prediction & probabilities (2025-08-16)	57.6%
FC Koln vs Hoffenheim prediction & probabilities (2026-08-29)	57.4%
Manchester City vs Bournemouth prediction & probabilities (2026-08-23)	57.4%

Calibration-graded model probabilities, not tips. See our public track record, including the misses.