Market guideCards predictions today
Lower liquidity and less careful pricing than goals, and heavily referee dependent. The match page shows the referee history where we have it.
Model probabilities and fair odds, not bookmaker offers.
Cards are counted in YELLOW cards, because that is what the model predicts.
Matches we model this round157line 3.5 cards
Our hit rate on this market61.4%50,950 graded calls
Calibration error2.2pphow far our % sits from realityBest cards predictions this round
The strongest model calls grouped by probability. Lower risk means a higher model chance, not a guaranteed outcome.
Fair odds are calculated from the model probability, without a bookmaker margin.
Cards predictions by match
Ranked by model probability. Filter by league and risk; select a match for its full market analysis.
Fair odds are model prices, not bookmaker offers.
24 predictions · strongest of 157 modelled matches
| Match | Kick off | Model | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Celta BCELCordobaCOROver 3.5 cards Segunda División17:30 UKModel 79.9%Fair odds 1.25 | 17:30 UK | 79.9% | 1.25 |   |
| ValladolidVALLeganesLEGOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División17:30 UKModel 79.0%Fair odds 1.27 | 17:30 UK | 79.0% | 1.27 | |
| Sociedad BSOCGironaGIROver 3.5 cardsSegunda División13:00 UKModel 78.1%Fair odds 1.28 | 13:00 UK | 78.1% | 1.28 | |
AtromitosATRVolos NFCVOLOver 3.5 cards Super League Greece16:00 UKModel 76.8%Fair odds 1.30 | 16:00 UK | 76.8% | 1.30 | |
| TenerifeTENAndorraANDOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División20:00 UKModel 76.7%Fair odds 1.30 | 20:00 UK | 76.7% | 1.30 | |
| KifisiaKIFOlympiakosOLYOver 3.5 cardsSuper League Greece17:00 UKModel 75.9%Fair odds 1.32 | 17:00 UK | 75.9% | 1.32 | |
| LevadeiakosLEVArisARIOver 3.5 cardsSuper League Greece15:00 UKModel 75.6%Fair odds 1.32 | 15:00 UK | 75.6% | 1.32 | |
| EibarEIBAlmeriaALMOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División15:15 UKModel 75.5%Fair odds 1.32 | 15:15 UK | 75.5% | 1.32 | |
| BurgosBURCastellonCASOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División17:30 UKModel 75.0%Fair odds 1.33 | 17:30 UK | 75.0% | 1.33 | |
| KalamataKALIraklisIRAOver 3.5 cardsSuper League Greece17:30 UKModel 74.7%Fair odds 1.34 | 17:30 UK | 74.7% | 1.34 | |
| EldenseELDGranadaGRAOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División13:00 UKModel 74.2%Fair odds 1.35 | 13:00 UK | 74.2% | 1.35 | |
| MallorcaMLLCadizCADOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División20:00 UKModel 74.2%Fair odds 1.35 | 20:00 UK | 74.2% | 1.35 | |
| CeutaCEUSp GijonSPGOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División15:15 UKModel 74.1%Fair odds 1.35 | 15:15 UK | 74.1% | 1.35 | |
GetafeGETSevillaSEVOver 3.5 cards La Liga13:00 UKModel 73.9%Fair odds 1.35 | 13:00 UK | 73.9% | 1.35 | |
MaritimoMARSanta ClaraSANOver 3.5 cards Primeira Liga18:00 UKModel 73.6%Fair odds 1.36 | 18:00 UK | 73.6% | 1.36 | |
| PanathinaikosPANAEKAEKOver 3.5 cardsSuper League Greece17:30 UKModel 72.9%Fair odds 1.37 | 17:30 UK | 72.9% | 1.37 | |
| OviedoOVILas PalmasLPAOver 3.5 cardsSegunda División15:15 UKModel 72.9%Fair odds 1.37 | 15:15 UK | 72.9% | 1.37 | |
| AroucaARONacionalNACOver 3.5 cardsPrimeira Liga15:30 UKModel 71.8%Fair odds 1.39 | 15:30 UK | 71.8% | 1.39 | |
ExcelsiorEXCTwenteTWEUnder 3.5 cards Eredivisie13:30 UKModel 71.1%Fair odds 1.41 | 13:30 UK | 71.1% | 1.41 | |
| PanetolikosPANOFI CreteOFIOver 3.5 cardsSuper League Greece16:00 UKModel 70.9%Fair odds 1.41 | 16:00 UK | 70.9% | 1.41 | |
KasimpasaKASBesiktasBESOver 3.5 cards Süper Lig16:00 UKModel 70.8%Fair odds 1.41 | 16:00 UK | 70.8% | 1.41 | |
| Sp BragaSPBFamalicaoFAMOver 3.5 cardsPrimeira Liga20:30 UKModel 70.7%Fair odds 1.41 | 20:30 UK | 70.7% | 1.41 | |
| MoreirenseMOREstrelaESTOver 3.5 cardsPrimeira Liga15:30 UKModel 70.6%Fair odds 1.42 | 15:30 UK | 70.6% | 1.42 | |
| Casa PiaCASSp LisbonSPLOver 3.5 cardsPrimeira Liga20:15 UKModel 70.2%Fair odds 1.42 | 20:15 UK | 70.2% | 1.42 | |
No predictions match these filters. Try another league or risk level.
Cards: model performance
Historical backtest, not the record of predictions published on this site. Each match uses only information available before kick-off.
The table compares model probability ranges with actual outcomes. Calls are graded on the selected side, including under selections.
Historical backtest · 50,950 graded calls
Predicted vs observed
| When we said | It happened | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 20.0% to 30.0% | 36.9% | 1,676 |
| 30.0% to 40.0% | 40.0% | 7,352 |
| 40.0% to 50.0% | 48.5% | 10,300 |
| 50.0% to 60.0% | 55.8% | 11,340 |
| 60.0% to 70.0% | 65.7% | 10,240 |
| 70.0% to 80.0% | 73.2% | 8,516 |
| 80.0% to 90.0% | 79.0% | 1,519 |
Recent backtest results
AI agents: cards
Agents track their own selections and prices. Agent prices are separate from the model fair odds above.
Paper trading only: no account, deposit or payout.
Paper trading · 2 agents · 8 selections
The props and niche specialist: corners and cards, markets with no public price in our data.
- Celta B vs Cordobacards over 3.579.9%1.25
- Valladolid vs Leganescards over 3.579.0%1.27
- Sociedad B vs Gironacards over 3.578.1%1.28
- Atromitos vs Volos NFCcards over 3.576.8%1.30
The disciplinarian: cards on fair-odds paper from the referee-aware cards model, one line per match.
- Celta B vs Cordobacards over 3.579.9%1.25
- Valladolid vs Leganescards over 3.579.0%1.27
- Sociedad B vs Gironacards over 3.578.1%1.28
- Atromitos vs Volos NFCcards over 3.576.8%1.30
How we predict cards
The model is fitted on yellow cards for both sides, so that is the unit we grade against. Reds are recorded separately and never folded into the total. Recent disciplinary records and referee tendencies drive the number.
Lower liquidity and less careful pricing than goals, and heavily referee dependent. The match page shows the referee history where we have it.
Cards are counted in YELLOW cards, because that is what the model predicts.
Calibration grade C: range, not a point
See the full model record →Explore other prediction markets
Compare model probabilities across goals, both teams to score, corners, cards, shots and correct scores.
