AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Segunda División
MallorcaMallorcaLDWDD
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1120:00UK
CadizCadizDWLLW

Mallorca vs Cadiz cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.8%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Mallorca vs Cadiz. Slightly more cards are projected for Cadiz for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.9% 12.0%
3.5 cards 74.2% 25.8%
4.5 cards 56.8% 43.2%
5.5 cards 39.3% 60.7%

Who picks up more cards

Mallorca
33.3%
Level
17.9%
Cadiz
48.7%

Team cards lines

Mallorca

Over 1.5
66.9%
Over 2.5
40.4%

Cadiz

Over 1.5
76.0%
Over 2.5
51.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Mallorca's; Cadiz gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Mallorca line Mallorca Cadiz
-1.5 18.7% 81.3%
-0.5 33.3% 66.7%
+0.5 51.3% 48.7%
+1.5 68.8% 31.2%

Red card

Any red card7.4%
Mallorca red card3.7%
Cadiz red card3.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 84.8% 15.2%
22.5 fouls 74.7% 25.3%
24.5 fouls 62.3% 37.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Cadiz R. Sanchez 2 5.5 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

MallorcaMallorca

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Mallorca at home and Cadiz away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CadizCadiz
Statistic
Mallorca
Cadiz
Cards per game at this venue
3.3
2.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.3
1.3

Yellow cards per game
3.1
3.3

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.9
1.7

Matches with more cards than the opponent
75.0%
62.5%

Matches with card data
8
8
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 74.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.9% for over 2.5 to 39.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.8%. Between the two sides, Cadiz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 17.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Mallorca over 1.5 cards sits at 66.9% and Cadiz at 76.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.4% (Mallorca 3.7%, Cadiz 3.9%). Cadiz’s most frequent referee this season, R. Sanchez, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Mallorca have averaged 3.6 cards a game and Cadiz 3.4.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

74.2%Over 3.5 cards
7.4%Any red card
48.7%Most cards: Cadiz
66.9%Mallorca over 1.5 cards
76.0%Cadiz over 1.5 cards
74.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR. Sanchez, Cadiz’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCadiz are the pick to collect more cards at 48.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
MallorcaMallorca

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CadizCadiz
Statistic
Mallorca
Cadiz
cards per game
3.6
3.4

fouls per game
14.3
12.9

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 74.2% for Mallorca vs Cadiz.
Will there be a red card in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
The model rates Cadiz to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Segunda DivisiónMallorca fixtures and statsCadiz fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.