The closing line is the final price the sharpest bookmakers settle on right before kickoff. Years of data show it is the most accurate price in football. CLV simply compares our price to that closing price. Positive means we were ahead of the market, near zero means we matched it. We publish it honestly, and we do not beat it.

It measures whether our percentages are truthful. If everything we call a 60% chance happens about 60% of the time, the calibration error is near zero. Lower is better. Ours sits at market level, which is about as honest as a probability gets.

We take every prediction, group them by the chance we gave them, then check how often they actually happened. The graphic higher up shows the two side by side. When they match, our numbers are honest. That is the single most important thing on this page.

In every match our model has one most likely outcome. This is how often that single pick comes in. It lands around half the time, because favourites win about half their matches. It is a sign of reliability, not a betting edge.

An accuracy score for yes or no predictions, like Over 2.5 goals. Zero is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better. We show it so you can see the goal markets get graded too, not just the match result.

The final odds from the sharpest bookmakers at kickoff. They absorb all the late money and information, which makes them very hard to beat. We are upfront that no model, including ours, beats them on public data.

When no outcome offers enough value, we say No bet and sit the round out. That happens most rounds. Knowing when not to bet protects a bankroll more than any tip, so we treat the discipline as the real product.

The current best model, the one that produces the numbers you see (right now: the ensemble). It only keeps the title by beating every rival in honest, out of sample backtests. If a challenger wins, it takes over.

Because honest probabilities plus knowing when to stay out is worth more than a tip sheet. We would rather lose your click than your bankroll. The numbers inform, you decide.

Every day. The daily log above is the timestamped record of every check, so you can watch the numbers hold up over time instead of taking our word for it.