AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Super League Greece
KalamataKalamataWLWWL
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1117:30UK
IraklisIraklisDDWLL

Kalamata vs Iraklis cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.3%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kalamata vs Iraklis. The model leans toward Iraklis for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.2% 11.8%
3.5 cards 74.7% 25.3%
4.5 cards 57.4% 42.6%
5.5 cards 39.9% 60.1%

Who picks up more cards

Kalamata
36.2%
Level
18.1%
Iraklis
45.7%

Team cards lines

Kalamata

Over 1.5
69.2%
Over 2.5
43.1%

Iraklis

Over 1.5
74.8%
Over 2.5
50.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Kalamata's; Iraklis gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Kalamata line Kalamata Iraklis
-1.5 20.9% 79.1%
-0.5 36.2% 63.8%
+0.5 54.3% 45.7%
+1.5 71.3% 28.7%

Red card

Any red card24.9%
Kalamata red card8.0%
Iraklis red card18.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 93.2% 6.8%
22.5 fouls 87.2% 12.8%
24.5 fouls 78.5% 21.5%
KalamataKalamata

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Kalamata at home and Iraklis away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

IraklisIraklis
Statistic
Kalamata
Iraklis
Cards per game at this venue
3.3
4.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.7

Yellow cards per game
3.4
2.5

First-half yellow cards per game
1.3
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.0
1.8

Matches with more cards than the opponent
66.7%
50.0%

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 74.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 88.2% for over 2.5 to 39.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.4%. Between the two sides, Iraklis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 18.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Kalamata over 1.5 cards sits at 69.2% and Iraklis at 74.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.9% (Kalamata 8.0%, Iraklis 18.4%). This season Kalamata have averaged 3.5 cards a game and Iraklis 3.2.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

74.7%Over 3.5 cards
24.9%Any red card
45.7%Most cards: Iraklis
69.2%Kalamata over 1.5 cards
74.8%Iraklis over 1.5 cards
87.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.9%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianIraklis are the pick to collect more cards at 45.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 57.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
KalamataKalamata

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

IraklisIraklis
Statistic
Kalamata
Iraklis
cards per game
3.5
3.2

fouls per game
14.9
15.9

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Kalamata vs Iraklis?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 74.7% for Kalamata vs Iraklis.
Will there be a red card in Kalamata vs Iraklis?
The model rates a red card for either side at 24.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kalamata vs Iraklis?
The model rates Iraklis to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Super League GreeceKalamata fixtures and statsIraklis fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.