AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Segunda División
EibarEibarWWLDL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:15UK
AlmeriaAlmeriaWWWWD

Eibar vs Almeria cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined75.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined24.5%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards75.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Eibar vs Almeria. It tips Almeria for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.7% 11.3%
3.5 cards 75.5% 24.5%
4.5 cards 58.5% 41.5%
5.5 cards 41.0% 59.0%

Who picks up more cards

Eibar
38.4%
Level
18.0%
Almeria
43.6%

Team cards lines

Eibar

Over 1.5
71.2%
Over 2.5
45.6%

Almeria

Over 1.5
74.2%
Over 2.5
49.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Eibar's; Almeria gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Eibar line Eibar Almeria
-1.5 22.7% 77.3%
-0.5 38.4% 61.7%
+0.5 56.4% 43.6%
+1.5 73.1% 27.0%

Red card

Any red card23.0%
Eibar red card6.8%
Almeria red card17.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 79.5% 20.5%
22.5 fouls 67.6% 32.4%
24.5 fouls 54.0% 46.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Almeria A. Ojaos 2 3.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

EibarEibar

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Eibar at home and Almeria away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AlmeriaAlmeria
Statistic
Eibar
Almeria
Cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
5.0
·

Yellow cards per game
1.9
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
0.7

Matches with more cards than the opponent
25.0%
·

Matches with card data
8
5
Red cards this season
2
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 88.7% for over 2.5 to 41.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.5%. On the card count, Almeria are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 18.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Eibar over 1.5 cards sits at 71.2% and Almeria at 74.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.0% (Eibar 6.8%, Almeria 17.4%). Almeria’s most frequent referee this season, A. Ojaos, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

75.5%Over 3.5 cards
23.0%Any red card
43.6%Most cards: Almeria
71.2%Eibar over 1.5 cards
74.2%Almeria over 1.5 cards
67.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 75.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Ojaos, Almeria’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 23.0%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianAlmeria are the pick to collect more cards at 43.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
EibarEibar

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AlmeriaAlmeria
Statistic
Eibar
Almeria
cards per game
2.0
·

fouls per game
10.7
12.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Eibar vs Almeria?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 75.5% for Eibar vs Almeria.
Will there be a red card in Eibar vs Almeria?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Eibar vs Almeria?
The model rates Almeria to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Segunda DivisiónEibar fixtures and statsAlmeria fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.