AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
HeerenveenHeerenveenDWLWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1017:45UK
NijmegenNijmegenLDDDD

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined66.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33.7%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards33.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Heerenveen vs Nijmegen. Slightly more cards are projected for Nijmegen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 56.0% 44.0%
3.5 cards 33.7% 66.3%
4.5 cards 17.3% 82.7%
5.5 cards 7.8% 92.3%

Who picks up more cards

Heerenveen
30.6%
Level
24.2%
Nijmegen
45.2%

Team cards lines

Heerenveen

Over 1.5
37.2%
Over 2.5
14.3%

Nijmegen

Over 1.5
48.4%
Over 2.5
22.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Heerenveen's; Nijmegen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Heerenveen line Heerenveen Nijmegen
-1.5 13.2% 86.8%
-0.5 30.6% 69.4%
+0.5 54.8% 45.2%
+1.5 76.6% 23.4%

Red card

Any red card6.4%
Heerenveen red card1.9%
Nijmegen red card4.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 57.4% 42.6%
22.5 fouls 42.0% 58.0%
24.5 fouls 28.2% 71.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Heerenveen Jannick van der Laan 2 0.5 0.0
Heerenveen Robin Hensgens 2 1.5 0.0
Nijmegen Allard Lindhout 2 3.5 1.5
Nijmegen S. Gozubuyuk 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

HeerenveenHeerenveen

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Heerenveen at home and Nijmegen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NijmegenNijmegen
Statistic
Heerenveen
Nijmegen
Cards per game at this venue
0.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Yellow cards per game
1.0
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.8

Matches with more cards than the opponent
16.7%
·

Matches with card data
6
3
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 33.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 56.0% for over 2.5 to 7.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.0%. Between the two sides, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 24.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Heerenveen over 1.5 cards sits at 37.2% and Nijmegen at 48.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.4% (Heerenveen 1.9%, Nijmegen 4.5%). Heerenveen’s most frequent referee this season, Jannick van der Laan, has averaged 0.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

33.7%Over 3.5 cards
6.4%Any red card
45.2%Most cards: Nijmegen
37.2%Heerenveen over 1.5 cards
48.4%Nijmegen over 1.5 cards
42.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 33.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJannick van der Laan, Heerenveen’s most frequent referee this season, averages 0.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianNijmegen are the pick to collect more cards at 45.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
HeerenveenHeerenveen

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NijmegenNijmegen
Statistic
Heerenveen
Nijmegen
cards per game
0.8
·

fouls per game
8.5
11.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Heerenveen vs Nijmegen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.7% for Heerenveen vs Nijmegen.
Will there be a red card in Heerenveen vs Nijmegen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Heerenveen vs Nijmegen?
The model rates Nijmegen to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 24.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisieHeerenveen fixtures and statsNEC Nijmegen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.