Market guide

Shots

Shots measure how open a game is, before finishing gets involved. Almost no free source prices shots, so we publish our own fair price and say so. Never a bookmaker offer.

Matches we model this round300line 24.5 shots

Our hit rate on this market58.8%50,161 graded calls

Calibration error3.5pphow far our % sits from reality

Best shots calls this round

Sorted by how sure we are. Risk IS the price: a higher probability is a shorter price. Every call links to that match, and the price shown is our own fair odds, 1 divided by our probability, with no bookmaker margin.

Medium riskThe middle of the book: still our call, with a real price.

68.9%Over 24.5 shots

Karlsruhe vs Cottbus1.45 67.7%Over 24.5 shots

St Pauli vs Wolfsburg1.48

High riskStill our call, but only just. The longest price we will stand behind.

60.9%Over 24.5 shots

Freiburg vs M'gladbach1.64 60.9%Under 24.5 shots

Guingamp vs Annecy1.64

Every match, ranked

300 matches carry a shots number this round, the strongest 24 shown. Filter by league or by how sure we are, and each row opens that match on its own shots page.

League

All 24

2. Bundesliga 13

Eredivisie 10

Super League Greece 1

Match	Kick off	Model	Fair odds
Karlsruhe vs Cottbus2. Bundesliga12:30 UK68.9%1.45	12:30 UK	68.9%	1.45
St Pauli vs Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga19:30 UK67.7%1.48	19:30 UK	67.7%	1.48
Darmstadt vs Bielefeld2. Bundesliga17:30 UK67.4%1.48	17:30 UK	67.4%	1.48
Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga12:30 UK67.1%1.49	12:30 UK	67.1%	1.49
Braunschweig vs Dresden2. Bundesliga12:00 UK66.9%1.50	12:00 UK	66.9%	1.50
Utrecht vs Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie17:45 UK66.5%1.50	17:45 UK	66.5%	1.50
Osnabruck vs Hertha2. Bundesliga12:30 UK66.1%1.51	12:30 UK	66.1%	1.51
Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt2. Bundesliga12:00 UK66.0%1.52	12:00 UK	66.0%	1.52
Hertha vs Magdeburg2. Bundesliga12:30 UK65.6%1.52	12:30 UK	65.6%	1.52
Bochum vs Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga12:00 UK64.6%1.55	12:00 UK	64.6%	1.55
Heerenveen vs TelstarEredivisie13:30 UK64.2%1.56	13:30 UK	64.2%	1.56
Wolfsburg vs Cottbus2. Bundesliga12:00 UK64.1%1.56	12:00 UK	64.1%	1.56
Go Ahead Eagles vs GroningenEredivisie17:45 UK64.0%1.56	17:45 UK	64.0%	1.56
Nurnberg vs Hannover2. Bundesliga17:30 UK63.9%1.56	17:30 UK	63.9%	1.56
Greuther Furth vs Heidenheim2. Bundesliga12:30 UK63.8%1.57	12:30 UK	63.8%	1.57
Magdeburg vs Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga12:00 UK63.7%1.57	12:00 UK	63.7%	1.57
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta RotterdamEredivisie19:00 UK63.6%1.57	19:00 UK	63.6%	1.57
Heerenveen vs AZ AlkmaarEredivisie13:30 UK63.5%1.57	13:30 UK	63.5%	1.57
Ajax vs PSV EindhovenEredivisie19:00 UK63.2%1.58	19:00 UK	63.2%	1.58
PAOK vs ArisSuper League Greece19:00 UK62.9%1.59	19:00 UK	62.9%	1.59
Twente vs Den HaagEredivisie15:30 UK62.8%1.59	15:30 UK	62.8%	1.59
Telstar vs CambuurEredivisie13:30 UK62.8%1.59	13:30 UK	62.8%	1.59
Groningen vs TwenteEredivisie11:15 UK62.7%1.59	11:15 UK	62.7%	1.59
Nijmegen vs FeyenoordEredivisie15:30 UK62.7%1.59	15:30 UK	62.7%	1.59

No match in this round sits in that league at that confidence. That is a real answer, not a missing page: pick another league or another band.

How the model has done on shots

A walk-forward replay of our own vault: the model is re-run on every past match with only the data it would have had that day, and its call is graded against what happened. It is a backtest, which is why the counts are large, and it is not the same thing as our published record. The judgement is over the CALL, not the outcome: a card that leaned under is graded on under, even when three goals went in.

When we say a number, does it happen?

When we said	It happened	Calls
0.0% to 10.0%	23.8%	1,318
10.0% to 20.0%	28.3%	1,539
20.0% to 30.0%	31.1%	4,090
30.0% to 40.0%	39.5%	10,984
40.0% to 50.0%	47.0%	16,635
50.0% to 60.0%	56.7%	12,849
60.0% to 70.0%	65.6%	2,742

The last calls in the replay

HITEstrela vs Sp Braga 57.6%HITPanathinaikos vs Kifisia 58.4%HITTwente vs Telstar 62.2%MISSMoreirense vs Benfica 56.0%HITDerby vs West Brom 56.6%MISSNorwich vs Birmingham 55.1%HITCharlton vs QPR 51.6%HITUtrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles 64.8%HITNijmegen vs Excelsior 61.9%MISSBlackburn vs Sheffield United 55.5%

Agents playing shots

2 of our 26 agents put 8 legs on this market this round. Paper trading only: no account, no deposit, no payout, and never betting advice. The price shown is what the agent got in its own book, not our fair odds. See every agent and its record.

The Marksmanfair odds paper

The shots-on-target reader: SoT totals on fair-odds paper, measuring calibration, not edge.

RB Leipzig vs Hamburgsot over 6.586.7%1.15
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdamsot over 6.586.3%1.16
Go Ahead Eagles vs Groningensot over 6.586.3%1.16
Cambuur vs Nijmegensot over 6.585.8%1.17

The Dominatorfair odds paper

The dominance reader: which side wins the count on corners, shots and cards, on fair-odds paper.

Real Madrid vs Vallecanosot most home72.3%1.38
Olympiakos vs OFI Cretesot most home71.8%1.39
Galatasaray vs Kocaelisporsot most home68.6%1.46
Osasuna vs Espanolsot most home67.0%1.49

How we model shots

Shot volume is far more stable week to week than goals, because it does not depend on whether the chances went in. We model the match total from both sides recent shot counts, for and against.

Calibration grade C: range, not a point

These are calibrated probabilities, not tips, and the price we show is our own fair odds with no margin in it. Our own out of sample work says the closing line is very hard to beat, so treat this as a yardstick for a price you are offered, never as an instruction. See the full record, including the misses.

Other markets

Over 2.5 goals Both teams to score Corners Cards Correct score

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Updated: 11 Sep 2026, 19:20 · build 9a6b58d · calibration isotonic-1x2.v1
Glossary · 18+ · Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware / Gambling Therapy