AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Segunda División
BurgosBurgosWLLWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1117:30UK
CastellonCastellonWDLWW

Burgos vs Castellon cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined75%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards75.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Burgos vs Castellon. It tips Burgos for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.4% 11.6%
3.5 cards 75.0% 25.0%
4.5 cards 57.8% 42.2%
5.5 cards 40.3% 59.7%

Who picks up more cards

Burgos
42.9%
Level
18.1%
Castellon
38.9%

Team cards lines

Burgos

Over 1.5
73.5%
Over 2.5
48.5%

Castellon

Over 1.5
71.2%
Over 2.5
45.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Burgos's; Castellon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Burgos line Burgos Castellon
-1.5 26.3% 73.7%
-0.5 42.9% 57.1%
+0.5 61.1% 38.9%
+1.5 76.9% 23.1%

Red card

Any red card15.7%
Burgos red card3.1%
Castellon red card13.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 86.1% 13.9%
22.5 fouls 76.4% 23.6%
24.5 fouls 64.4% 35.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Burgos I. Galech 2 4.0 2.0
Castellon G. Cid 2 5.0 1.0
Castellon M. H. De Aza 2 5.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

BurgosBurgos

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Burgos at home and Castellon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CastellonCastellon
Statistic
Burgos
Castellon
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
4.3

Yellow cards per game
2.6
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.1
1.3

Matches with card data
5
6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.4% for over 2.5 to 40.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.8%. On the card count, Burgos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 18.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Burgos over 1.5 cards sits at 73.5% and Castellon at 71.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.7% (Burgos 3.1%, Castellon 13.0%). Burgos’s most frequent referee this season, I. Galech, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

75.0%Over 3.5 cards
15.7%Any red card
42.9%Most cards: Burgos
73.5%Burgos over 1.5 cards
71.2%Castellon over 1.5 cards
76.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 75.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherI. Galech, Burgos’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBurgos are the pick to collect more cards at 42.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
BurgosBurgos

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CastellonCastellon
Statistic
Burgos
Castellon
fouls per game
15.6
11.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Burgos vs Castellon?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 75.0% for Burgos vs Castellon.
Will there be a red card in Burgos vs Castellon?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Burgos vs Castellon?
The model rates Burgos to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Segunda División, Cards

Sociedad B vs Girona cards predictionEibar vs Almeria cards predictionCelta B vs Cordoba cards predictionAlbacete vs Sabadell cards predictionEldense vs Granada cards predictionCeuta vs Sporting Gijon cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónBurgos fixtures and statsCastellon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.