AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp BragaSp BragaWDLLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1120:30UK
FamalicaoFamalicaoDDWLW

Sp Braga vs Famalicao cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined70.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined29.3%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards70.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Braga vs Famalicao. The model leans toward Famalicao for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.8% 14.2%
3.5 cards 70.7% 29.3%
4.5 cards 52.6% 47.4%
5.5 cards 35.1% 64.9%

Who picks up more cards

Sp Braga
35.8%
Level
18.6%
Famalicao
45.6%

Team cards lines

Sp Braga

Over 1.5
66.1%
Over 2.5
39.5%

Famalicao

Over 1.5
72.1%
Over 2.5
46.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sp Braga's; Famalicao gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sp Braga line Sp Braga Famalicao
-1.5 20.2% 79.8%
-0.5 35.8% 64.2%
+0.5 54.4% 45.6%
+1.5 71.9% 28.1%

Red card

Any red card13.9%
Sp Braga red card8.1%
Famalicao red card6.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.3% 14.7%
22.5 fouls 75.9% 24.1%
24.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sp Braga Jose Bessa 2 5.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Sp BragaSp Braga

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sp Braga at home and Famalicao away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

FamalicaoFamalicao
Statistic
Sp Braga
Famalicao
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.7

Yellow cards per game
2.0
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.6

Matches with card data
5
5
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 70.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 85.8% for over 2.5 to 35.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Head to head on cards, Famalicao are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 18.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Sp Braga over 1.5 cards sits at 66.1% and Famalicao at 72.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.9% (Sp Braga 8.1%, Famalicao 6.3%). Sp Braga’s most frequent referee this season, Jose Bessa, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

70.7%Over 3.5 cards
13.9%Any red card
45.6%Most cards: Famalicao
66.1%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards
72.1%Famalicao over 1.5 cards
75.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 70.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJose Bessa, Sp Braga’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianFamalicao are the pick to collect more cards at 45.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Sp BragaSp Braga

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

FamalicaoFamalicao
Statistic
Sp Braga
Famalicao
fouls per game
13.3
11.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sp Braga vs Famalicao?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.7% for Sp Braga vs Famalicao.
Will there be a red card in Sp Braga vs Famalicao?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Braga vs Famalicao?
The model rates Famalicao to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Primeira LigaSp Braga fixtures and statsFamalicao fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.