Super 6 predictions this week
The score our model would enter for every Premier League and EFL match this weekend, with the chance of the exact score and of the result. Pick your six.
We do not know which six matches Sky picks. These are our most likely scores for this weekend’s matches, and the score we would enter for each. Pick your six. Not affiliated with Sky Bet or Sky Sports.
Our six
The six Premier League and EFL matches where our score earns the most expected points this weekend. Not Sky’s six: check which matches the game uses before you enter.
- 1Salford vs ExeterAlso the most likely score · All scores2-012.0% exact1.63 exp. pts
- 2Middlesbrough vs CharltonAlso the most likely score · All scores2-011.6% exact1.63 exp. pts
- 3Grimsby vs YorkAlso the most likely score · All scores2-011.6% exact1.61 exp. pts
- 4Accrington vs NorthamptonMost likely 1-1 (11.8%) · All scores1-011.6% exact1.47 exp. pts
- 5Oldham vs Crawley TownMost likely 1-1 (11.8%) · All scores1-011.1% exact1.42 exp. pts
- 6Swindon vs RotherhamMost likely 1-1 (11.9%) · All scores1-011.1% exact1.42 exp. pts
Every Premier League and EFL match this weekend
Premier League · 10 matches
- Chelsea vs Manchester UnitedMost likely 1-1 (11.2%) · All scores2-18.8% exact1.12 exp. pts
- Bournemouth vs LeedsMost likely 1-1 (12.6%) · All scores1-09.8% exact1.24 exp. pts
- Brentford vs Nottingham ForestMost likely 1-1 (12.5%) · All scores1-09.5% exact1.20 exp. pts
- Coventry vs SunderlandMost likely 1-1 (13.4%) · All scores1-09.6% exact1.00 exp. pts
- Hull vs IpswichMost likely 1-1 (12.8%) · All scores1-09.4% exact1.13 exp. pts
- Manchester City vs BrightonMost likely 1-1 (11.1%) · All scores2-19.7% exact1.36 exp. pts
- Tottenham vs Crystal PalaceMost likely 1-1 (12.4%) · All scores1-09.5% exact1.22 exp. pts
- Aston Villa vs FulhamMost likely 1-1 (13.0%) · All scores1-010.0% exact1.16 exp. pts
- Liverpool vs ArsenalMost likely 1-1 (13.3%) · All scores0-110.5% exact1.16 exp. pts
- Newcastle vs EvertonMost likely 1-1 (12.5%) · All scores1-09.2% exact1.19 exp. pts
Championship · 12 matches
- Sheffield United vs WrexhamMost likely 1-1 (12.0%) · All scores2-19.5% exact1.24 exp. pts
- Lincoln vs BirminghamMost likely 1-1 (12.9%) · All scores0-111.3% exact1.29 exp. pts
- Norwich vs WatfordMost likely 1-1 (11.3%) · All scores2-19.9% exact1.40 exp. pts
- Stoke vs PrestonMost likely 1-1 (12.7%) · All scores1-011.7% exact1.35 exp. pts
- Bolton vs Bristol CityMost likely 1-1 (13.6%) · All scores0-111.0% exact1.14 exp. pts
- Burnley vs PortsmouthMost likely 1-1 (13.4%) · All scores0-110.3% exact1.11 exp. pts
- Middlesbrough vs CharltonAlso the most likely score · All scores2-011.6% exact1.63 exp. pts
- Millwall vs DerbyMost likely 1-1 (12.4%) · All scores1-011.1% exact1.35 exp. pts
- Southampton vs QPRMost likely 1-1 (10.6%) · All scores2-19.9% exact1.42 exp. pts
- Swansea vs BlackburnMost likely 1-1 (13.6%) · All scores1-012.0% exact1.21 exp. pts
- West Ham vs West BromMost likely 1-1 (13.6%) · All scores0-111.9% exact1.21 exp. pts
- Wolves vs CardiffMost likely 1-1 (13.1%) · All scores1-010.1% exact1.15 exp. pts
League Two · 12 matches
- Newport County vs ChesterfieldMost likely 1-1 (12.6%) · All scores0-19.5% exact1.18 exp. pts
- Grimsby vs YorkAlso the most likely score · All scores2-011.6% exact1.61 exp. pts
- Port Vale vs RochdaleMost likely 1-1 (13.4%) · All scores1-010.8% exact1.17 exp. pts
- Accrington vs NorthamptonMost likely 1-1 (11.8%) · All scores1-011.6% exact1.47 exp. pts
- Colchester vs WalsallMost likely 1-1 (13.7%) · All scores1-011.2% exact1.12 exp. pts
- Crewe vs BarnetMost likely 1-1 (12.3%) · All scores1-28.8% exact1.07 exp. pts
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol RvsMost likely 1-1 (13.2%) · All scores1-010.7% exact1.18 exp. pts
- Oldham vs Crawley TownMost likely 1-1 (11.8%) · All scores1-011.1% exact1.42 exp. pts
- Salford vs ExeterAlso the most likely score · All scores2-012.0% exact1.63 exp. pts
- Shrewsbury vs GillinghamMost likely 1-1 (13.1%) · All scores1-010.3% exact1.16 exp. pts
- Swindon vs RotherhamMost likely 1-1 (11.9%) · All scores1-011.1% exact1.42 exp. pts
- Tranmere vs CheltenhamMost likely 1-1 (11.9%) · All scores2-19.1% exact1.14 exp. pts
An exact score is always unlikely. Our exact-score chances this weekend run from 8.8% to 12.0%, so most exact scores miss, ours included.
How the points work, and how we pick
Our score is not always the most likely one. The most likely single score is often a draw such as 1-1, but a draw is rarely the most likely result. Because the right result alone is worth 2 points, a 1-0 for a clear favourite can be worth more on average than a slightly more likely 1-1. We enter the score with the most expected points: 5 times its chance, plus 2 times the chance of the right result without the exact score.
5 points for the exact score, 2 for the right result, as the game describes it; check the official rules.
We do not model the Golden Goal tiebreaker (the minute of the first goal), and League One is not in our model, so its matches are not listed.
Each score comes from the match’s own score grid, and each result chance is the same calibrated number the match page shows. See our public track record, including the misses.
