AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
ZwolleZwolleLLLWD
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1111:15UK
Den HaagDen HaagLDDWL

PEC Zwolle vs Den Haag cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined66.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33.1%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards33.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Zwolle vs Den Haag. It tips Den Haag for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 55.4% 44.7%
3.5 cards 33.1% 66.9%
4.5 cards 16.9% 83.1%
5.5 cards 7.5% 92.5%

Who picks up more cards

Zwolle
28.9%
Level
24.2%
Den Haag
46.9%

Team cards lines

Zwolle

Over 1.5
35.4%
Over 2.5
13.1%

Den Haag

Over 1.5
49.2%
Over 2.5
23.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Zwolle's; Den Haag gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Zwolle line Zwolle Den Haag
-1.5 12.1% 87.9%
-0.5 28.9% 71.1%
+0.5 53.1% 46.9%
+1.5 75.4% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card16.5%
Zwolle red card10.2%
Den Haag red card7.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 64.2% 35.8%
22.5 fouls 49.1% 50.9%
24.5 fouls 34.7% 65.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Den Haag E. Blank 2 2.5 1.5
Den Haag Jannick van der Laan 2 2.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ZwolleZwolle

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Zwolle at home and Den Haag away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Den HaagDen Haag
Statistic
Zwolle
Den Haag
Cards per game at this venue
1.4
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.6
1.0

Yellow cards per game
1.4
1.7

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
40.0%
83.3%

Matches with card data
10
6
Red cards this season
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 33.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 55.4% for over 2.5 to 7.5% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.4%. On the card count, Den Haag are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.9%, with a level count at 24.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Zwolle over 1.5 cards sits at 35.4% and Den Haag at 49.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.5% (Zwolle 10.2%, Den Haag 7.0%). Den Haag’s most frequent referee this season, E. Blank, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Zwolle have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Den Haag 2.2.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

33.1%Over 3.5 cards
16.5%Any red card
46.9%Most cards: Den Haag
35.4%Zwolle over 1.5 cards
49.2%Den Haag over 1.5 cards
49.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 33.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherE. Blank, Den Haag’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianDen Haag are the pick to collect more cards at 46.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
ZwolleZwolle

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Den HaagDen Haag
Statistic
Zwolle
Den Haag
cards per game
1.5
2.2

fouls per game
11.0
14.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Zwolle vs Den Haag?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.1% for Zwolle vs Den Haag.
Will there be a red card in Zwolle vs Den Haag?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Zwolle vs Den Haag?
The model rates Den Haag to pick up more cards at 46.9%, with a level count at 24.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisiePEC Zwolle fixtures and statsDen Haag fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.