Premier League predictions
Calibrated model probabilities for the Premier League fixtures we currently model. We track 10 upcoming matches.
- 10Upcoming predictions
- 20Teams in league
- 51.6%Model avg Over 2.5
- 55.5%Model avg BTTS
Upcoming Premier League predictions
ChelseaCHEManchester UnitedMUN
- Home win
- 42.7%
- Draw
- 24.4%
- Away win
- 32.8%
BournemouthBOULeedsLEE
- Home win
- 47.3%
- Draw
- 25.7%
- Away win
- 27.0%
BrentfordBRENottingham ForestNFO
- Home win
- 45.6%
- Draw
- 26.0%
- Away win
- 28.3%
CoventryCOVSunderlandSUN
- Home win
- 35.7%
- Draw
- 28.5%
- Away win
- 35.7%
HullHULIpswichIPS
- Home win
- 42.7%
- Draw
- 26.6%
- Away win
- 30.8%
Manchester CityMCIBrightonBHA
- Home win
- 53.3%
- Draw
- 23.3%
- Away win
- 23.3%
TottenhamTOTCrystal PalaceCRY
- Home win
- 46.9%
- Draw
- 25.4%
- Away win
- 27.7%
Aston VillaAVLFulhamFUL
- Home win
- 42.9%
- Draw
- 28.1%
- Away win
- 29.0%
LiverpoolLIVArsenalARS
- Home win
- 30.1%
- Draw
- 27.8%
- Away win
- 42.1%
NewcastleNEWEvertonEVE
- Home win
- 45.6%
- Draw
- 26.1%
- Away win
- 28.4%
Premier League score predictions
The most likely correct score in each match. Even the leading scoreline usually has a low probability.
- ChelseaCHEManchester UnitedMUN1-1 11.2%
- BournemouthBOULeedsLEE1-1 12.6%
- BrentfordBRENottingham ForestNFO1-1 12.5%
- CoventryCOVSunderlandSUN1-1 13.4%
- HullHULIpswichIPS1-1 12.8%
- Manchester CityMCIBrightonBHA1-1 11.1%
- TottenhamTOTCrystal PalaceCRY1-1 12.4%
- Aston VillaAVLFulhamFUL1-1 13.0%
- LiverpoolLIVArsenalARS1-1 13.3%
- NewcastleNEWEvertonEVE1-1 12.5%
Premier League table and stats (2026/27)
Season 2026/27. 80 league matches played, through 2026-10-25.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
Per-game team stats (shots, corners, cards, xG) are on the statistics page.
Season match patterns
Over 2.5 goals
Share of matches
- Premier League
- 50%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Both teams scored
Share of matches
- Premier League
- 50%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Home wins
Share of matches
- Premier League
- 39%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Draws
Share of matches
- Premier League
- 29%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Away wins
Share of matches
- Premier League
- 33%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Premier League top scorers and xG
Season 2026/27. Leading scorers in our published player data.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 9 | 7.04 |
| Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 6 | 4.70 |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | 5 | 3.61 |
| Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | 5 | 3.08 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Manchester United | 4 | 4.26 |
| Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | 4 | 2.41 |
| Morgan Rogers | Chelsea | 4 | 1.87 |
| Nicolas Jackson | Aston Villa | 4 | 2.28 |
| Brian Brobbey | Sunderland | 3 | 3.30 |
| Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | 3 | 3.17 |
Stored match analysis
Historical or unresolved fixtures. Final scores are shown only when verified.
- Sunderland 0-0 Leeds, 25 Oct
- Hull 1-1 Brentford, 25 Oct
- Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth, 25 Oct
- Liverpool 2-0 Brighton, 25 Oct
- Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle, 25 Oct
- Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham, 24 Oct
- Coventry 0-1 Fulham, 24 Oct
- Arsenal 2-0 Everton, 24 Oct
- Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City, 24 Oct
- Ipswich 1-1 Nottingham Forest, 23 Oct
- Tottenham 3-1 Coventry, 19 Oct
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal, 18 Oct
- Leeds 1-1 Manchester United, 18 Oct
- Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace, 18 Oct
- Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland, 18 Oct
- Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa, 17 Oct
- Manchester City 3-2 Ipswich, 17 Oct
- Fulham 1-0 Hull, 17 Oct
- Brentford 1-2 Liverpool, 17 Oct
- Everton 0-2 Chelsea, 17 Oct
- Coventry 4-1 Newcastle, 12 Oct
- Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City, 11 Oct
- Hull 2-2 Everton, 11 Oct
- Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest, 11 Oct
- Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham, 10 Oct
- Sunderland 0-2 Brighton, 10 Oct
- Ipswich 2-1 Fulham, 10 Oct
- Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth, 10 Oct
- Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford, 10 Oct
- Arsenal 2-1 Leeds, 10 Oct
Premier League Super 6 style picks: six correct scores
Super 6 predictions this week: our score for every Premier League and EFL match in the round.
The Premier League matches where our score earns the most expected points: 5 for the exact score and 2 for the right result.
- 1Manchester City vs BrightonMost likely 1-1 (11.1%) · All scores2-19.7% exact1.36 exp. pts
- 2Bournemouth vs LeedsMost likely 1-1 (12.6%) · All scores1-09.8% exact1.24 exp. pts
- 3Tottenham vs Crystal PalaceMost likely 1-1 (12.4%) · All scores1-09.5% exact1.22 exp. pts
- 4Brentford vs Nottingham ForestMost likely 1-1 (12.5%) · All scores1-09.5% exact1.20 exp. pts
- 5Newcastle vs EvertonMost likely 1-1 (12.5%) · All scores1-09.2% exact1.19 exp. pts
- 6Liverpool vs ArsenalMost likely 1-1 (13.3%) · All scores0-110.5% exact1.16 exp. pts
An exact score is always unlikely: the strongest one here has a 10.5% chance. All Premier League and EFL scores for the round are on our Super 6 predictions page.
Premier League referees
Matches in the Premier League since 2025/26, with career yellow cards per game from completed matches. We never publish referee appointments for upcoming matches unless an official source confirms them.
- Michael Oliver35 matches3.25
- Chris Kavanagh35 matches3.48
- Anthony Taylor31 matches3.60
- Stuart Attwell29 matches3.71
- Darren England28 matches3.81
- Sam Barrott28 matches3.48
- Jarred Gillett27 matches3.46
- Peter Bankes26 matches3.95
- Tom Bramall26 matches3.30
- Andy Madley25 matches3.24
- Craig Pawson25 matches3.61
- Rob Jones22 matches3.49
Premier League fixtures
Linked matches have a full prediction page. Schedule from our fixture feed, refreshed daily; kickoff times can move.
Showing 20 of 20 upcoming league fixtures.
- Sat 31 Oct 2026
- 12:30 UKChelseaCHEManchester UnitedMUN
- 15:00 UKBournemouthBOULeedsLEE
- 15:00 UKBrentfordBRENottingham ForestNFO
- 15:00 UKCoventryCOVSunderlandSUN
- 15:00 UKHullHULIpswichIPS
- 15:00 UKManchester CityMCIBrightonBHA
- 17:30 UKTottenhamTOTCrystal PalaceCRY
- 20:00 UKAston VillaAVLFulhamFUL
- Sun 1 Nov 2026
- 16:30 UKLiverpoolLIVArsenalARS
- Mon 2 Nov 2026
- 20:00 UKNewcastleNEWEvertonEVE
- Fri 6 Nov 2026
- 20:00 UKEvertonEVECoventryCOV
- Sat 7 Nov 2026
- 12:30 UKLeedsLEETottenhamTOT
- 15:00 UKArsenalARSHullHUL
- 15:00 UKFulhamFULNewcastleNEW
- 17:30 UKNottingham ForestNFOManchester CityMCI
- Sun 8 Nov 2026
- 14:00 UKBrightonBHABrentfordBRE
- 14:00 UKCrystal PalaceCRYLiverpoolLIV
- 14:00 UKIpswichIPSBournemouthBOU
- 14:00 UKSunderlandSUNChelseaCHE
- 16:30 UKManchester UnitedMUNAston VillaAVL
Frequently asked questions
How many Premier League matches are predicted?
We currently model 10 upcoming fixtures across 20 teams. Each links to a full page with the calibrated probabilities behind it.
Are these Premier League tips?
No. These are calibration graded model probabilities, not betting advice. Across these 10 matches the model averages 51.6% for Over 2.5 goals.
Who is top of the Premier League?
Manchester City lead the Premier League (2026/27) with 21 points from 8 games, through 2026-10-25.
How many goals per game in the Premier League this season?
The Premier League is averaging 2.77 goals per match, with 50% of matches going over 2.5 goals across 80 matches played.
Calibration-graded model probabilities, not tips. See our public track record, including the misses.
