AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Super League Greece
LevadeiakosLevadeiakosDLLDD
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:00UK
ArisArisLDWWW

Levadeiakos vs Aris cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined75.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined24.5%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards75.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Levadeiakos vs Aris. The model leans toward Aris for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.8% 11.3%
3.5 cards 75.6% 24.5%
4.5 cards 58.6% 41.4%
5.5 cards 41.1% 59.0%

Who picks up more cards

Levadeiakos
32.9%
Level
17.7%
Aris
49.4%

Team cards lines

Levadeiakos

Over 1.5
67.7%
Over 2.5
41.3%

Aris

Over 1.5
77.2%
Over 2.5
53.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Levadeiakos's; Aris gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Levadeiakos line Levadeiakos Aris
-1.5 18.5% 81.5%
-0.5 32.9% 67.1%
+0.5 50.6% 49.4%
+1.5 68.0% 32.0%

Red card

Any red card26.7%
Levadeiakos red card15.1%
Aris red card13.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 94.0% 6.0%
22.5 fouls 88.4% 11.6%
24.5 fouls 80.3% 19.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Levadeiakos A. Evangelou 2 0.5 0.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

LevadeiakosLevadeiakos

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Levadeiakos at home and Aris away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ArisAris
Statistic
Levadeiakos
Aris
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.3

Matches with more cards than the opponent
20.0%
20.0%

Matches with card data
5
5
Red cards this season
2
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.8% for over 2.5 to 41.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.6%. On the card count, Aris are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 17.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards sits at 67.7% and Aris at 77.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.7% (Levadeiakos 15.1%, Aris 13.6%). Levadeiakos’s most frequent referee this season, A. Evangelou, has averaged 0.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Levadeiakos have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Aris 2.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

75.6%Over 3.5 cards
26.7%Any red card
49.4%Most cards: Aris
67.7%Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards
77.2%Aris over 1.5 cards
88.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 75.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Evangelou, Levadeiakos’s most frequent referee this season, averages 0.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 26.7%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianAris are the pick to collect more cards at 49.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
LevadeiakosLevadeiakos

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ArisAris
Statistic
Levadeiakos
Aris
cards per game
2.0
2.0

fouls per game
13.8
16.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Levadeiakos vs Aris?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 75.6% for Levadeiakos vs Aris.
Will there be a red card in Levadeiakos vs Aris?
The model rates a red card for either side at 26.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Levadeiakos vs Aris?
The model rates Aris to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 17.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Super League GreeceLevadeiakos fixtures and statsAris fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.