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Top European leagues

Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1

Honest football probabilities, not promises.

Calibrated model percentages, clear No bet calls, and a public track record that shows the misses too.

View today’s predictions →Full track record →
50
Matches this round
100%
No bet rate
0.0097
Calibration error
≈0%
Realised ROI
≈≈ break-evenRealised ROI (the only real proof of edge)
0.0097
Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%
Top pick hit (reliability, not edge)
-3.074%
CLV (upper bound, not proof)
54,671
Matches evaluated
Our insight

The honest frame

We do not beat the sharp closing market. A zero edge placebo also shows positive CLV, so CLV is an upper bound, not proof. The value here is calibrated probabilities and disciplined No bet calls, not a profit promise.

Calibrated probabilitiesTransparent missesNo bet disciplinePublic track record

Today’s predictions

All matches →

Model probabilities with the decision. Most rounds are mostly No bet, by design.

5 leagues2026-08-15
Alaves
VS
Getafe
Model’s pickHome win45.8%
1X2 · Match result
1
45.8%
X
30.3%
2
23.9%
Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)
Over 2.5
32.9%
BTTS (Yes)
39.5%
5 leagues2026-08-15
Sevilla
VS
Vallecano
Model’s pickHome win39.2%
1X2 · Match result
1
39.2%
X
29.1%
2
31.8%
Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)
Over 2.5
42.0%
BTTS (Yes)
48.6%
5 leagues2026-08-16
Santander
VS
Villarreal
Model’s pickAway win49.2%
1X2 · Match result
1
26.5%
X
24.3%
2
49.2%
Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)
Over 2.5
55.3%
BTTS (Yes)
57.7%
5 leagues2026-08-16
Espanol
VS
Levante
Model’s pickHome win42.7%
1X2 · Match result
1
42.7%
X
26.5%
2
30.8%
Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)
Over 2.5
51.7%
BTTS (Yes)
55.8%
5 leagues2026-08-16
Celta
VS
Osasuna
Model’s pickHome win50.7%
1X2 · Match result
1
50.7%
X
25.7%
2
23.6%
Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)
Over 2.5
48.7%
BTTS (Yes)
51.9%
5 leagues2026-08-17
RC Deportivo
VS
Elche
Model’s pickHome win40.9%
1X2 · Match result
1
40.9%
X
27.7%
2
31.5%
Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)
Over 2.5
50.0%
BTTS (Yes)
54.8%
View all matches

This round, ranked

See all 13 →

Most reliable first. Level is a dot, not a promise.

How it works

1

We model

Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble, then calibrate the probabilities on real, out-of-sample results.

2

We gate

A trust zone and hard risk limits decide No bet when the edge is not real. The default posture is No bet.

3

We show our work

Every prediction is graded after the match. The track record is public, including the misses and a calibration check.

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Updated: 2026-07-28 09:16:08 · build 3c83206 · calibration isotonic-1x2.v1
Glossary · 18+ · Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware / Gambling Therapy