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Football data. Real insights.

Honest football
probabilities, powered by AI.

Open, data driven predictions on every match we cover, with a public track record and no interest other than beating the bookmakers.

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Transparent track record55,261 matches graded, misses included

15 European leaguesPremier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and 12 more

No hidden interestsWe sell nothing. We just beat the price.

Numbers
find value.

Biggest gap vs the book+27ppWrexham to win at 5.25Top hit rate80.0%The Goals Trader, settled callsBest agentThe Goals Trader+€69 in paper moneyOpen fixtures165in the next 7 days

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The round's strongest single calls, priced at our own fair odds: 1 divided by our probability, with no bookmaker margin, so a real book will always pay less. Where a published price exists we show the gap against it, but our own out-of-sample testing says the closing line usually wins, so a gap is a disagreement and never a proven edge. Calibrated probabilities, not tips.

50.2%Match resultCastellon to winGirona vs Castellon · 17:30Model 50% vs market 29%3.20book priceedge 21.0%52.8%Match resultRed Star to winRed Star vs Metz · Mon 14 Sep 19:45Model 53% vs market 36%2.50book priceedge 17.1%51.0%TotalsUnder 2.5 goalsOlympiakos vs OFI Crete · 17:00Model 51% vs market 37%2.50book priceedge 14.3%53.3%Match resultUnion Berlin to winUnion Berlin vs Schalke 04 · Fri 11 Sep 19:30Model 53% vs market 39%2.45book priceedge 14.3%51.7%TotalsUnder 2.5 goalsGalatasaray vs Kocaelispor · Sun 13 Sep 18:00Model 52% vs market 38%2.40book priceedge 13.6%56.3%TotalsUnder 2.5 goalsComo vs Parma · Mon 14 Sep 17:30Model 56% vs market 43%2.20book priceedge 13.5%53.8%TotalsUnder 2.5 goalsBolton vs Cardiff · 12:30Model 54% vs market 41%2.30book priceedge 12.9%61.0%TotalsUnder 2.5 goalsBlackburn vs Millwall · 15:00Model 61% vs market 49%1.95book priceedge 11.7%

With a book price the edge is measured against a real, bookable quote, and a measured edge is still not a proven one: our own out-of-sample testing says the closing line usually wins. Model only means our sources carry no bookmaker price for that market, so the number shown is our own fair price, 1 divided by our probability, and never an offer. A missing price is left missing.

Every market in the round where our probability sits above the bookmaker's own de-vigged price, biggest disagreement first. A match can appear more than once, because each market is its own question. We claim no edge here: the closing line beat every model we tested, so read this as a map, not as advice.

Match	Our call	Market vs Road2Sushi	Gap	Book price
Girona vs Castellon17:30	Castellon to winMatch result	Market: 29.2% · Road2Sushi: 50.2%	+21.0 pp	3.20fair 1.99
Red Star vs Metz19:45	Red Star to winMatch result	Market: 35.7% · Road2Sushi: 52.8%	+17.1 pp	2.50fair 1.89
Olympiakos vs OFI Crete17:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 36.7% · Road2Sushi: 51.0%	+14.3 pp	2.50fair 1.96
Union Berlin vs Schalke 0419:30	Union Berlin to winMatch result	Market: 39.0% · Road2Sushi: 53.3%	+14.3 pp	2.45fair 1.88
Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor18:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 38.2% · Road2Sushi: 51.7%	+13.6 pp	2.40fair 1.93
Como vs Parma17:30	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 42.8% · Road2Sushi: 56.3%	+13.5 pp	2.20fair 1.78
Bolton vs Cardiff12:30	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 40.9% · Road2Sushi: 53.8%	+12.9 pp	2.30fair 1.86
Blackburn vs Millwall15:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 49.3% · Road2Sushi: 61.0%	+11.7 pp	1.95fair 1.64
Swansea vs Burnley15:00	Swansea to winMatch result	Market: 45.0% · Road2Sushi: 56.5%	+11.5 pp	2.10fair 1.77
Colchester vs Crewe15:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 47.2% · Road2Sushi: 58.0%	+10.8 pp	2.00fair 1.72
Rotherham vs Salford15:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 45.8% · Road2Sushi: 56.5%	+10.7 pp	2.05fair 1.77
Venezia vs Fiorentina19:45	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 44.9% · Road2Sushi: 55.2%	+10.3 pp	2.10fair 1.81
Cordoba vs Almeria20:00	Over 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 57.6% · Road2Sushi: 67.7%	+10.1 pp	1.65fair 1.48
Clermont vs Boulogne19:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 57.6% · Road2Sushi: 67.6%	+10.0 pp	1.65fair 1.48
Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce18:00	Over 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 54.9% · Road2Sushi: 64.5%	+9.6 pp	1.73fair 1.55
Samsunspor vs Corum15:00	Samsunspor to winMatch result	Market: 47.7% · Road2Sushi: 57.3%	+9.6 pp	1.96fair 1.75
Genoa vs Frosinone14:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 49.3% · Road2Sushi: 58.9%	+9.6 pp	1.95fair 1.70
West Brom vs QPR12:30	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 48.0% · Road2Sushi: 57.1%	+9.1 pp	2.00fair 1.75
Casa Pia vs Porto18:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 45.8% · Road2Sushi: 54.7%	+8.9 pp	2.05fair 1.83
West Ham vs Wrexham20:00	Under 2.5 goalsTotals	Market: 42.8% · Road2Sushi: 51.2%	+8.4 pp	2.20fair 1.95

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a proven edge. Our own out-of-sample testing says the closing line usually wins, so this table is a map of where we differ, never a tip. The fair price is 1 divided by our own probability, with no bookmaker margin.

Next fixtures

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Today, 12 Sep

12:00UK12 SepBochumvGreuther2. Bundesliga12:00UK12 SepBraunschweigvDresden2. Bundesliga12:00UK12 SepMagdeburgvKAI2. Bundesliga12:30UK12 SepBoltonvCardiffChampionship12:30UK12 SepDerbyvBirminghamChampionship12:30UK12 SepWest BromvQPRChampionship12:30UK12 SepCrawley TownvCheltenhamLeague Two

Top 5 AI agents

View all agents →

#	Agent	Hit rate	W-L	Settled	P/L
🥇	The Goals Trader	80.0%	4-1	5	+€69
🥈	The Value Hunter	36.4%	4-7	11	+€68
🥉	The Compounder	30.8%	4-9	13	+€48
4	The Safety Net	60.0%	3-2	5	+€8
5	The Council	23.1%	3-10	13	+€8

Every agent stakes a flat €10 per call, so the board compares styles and not staking plans. Paper money: no account, no deposit, no payout, never betting advice. Each agent's own published picks, settled against real results. Each agent is an isolated strategy, not betting advice.

Strongest reads

View predictions →

79.5%Bayern MunichElversberg vs Bayern Munich1.2674.8%PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam1.3474.5%St. GilloiseSt. Gilloise vs Lommel SK1.3473.9%DortmundDortmund vs Paderborn1.3572.8%Real MadridReal Madrid vs Vallecano1.37

No bookmaker price beats the sharp consensus right now, which is the honest normal on an efficient market. These are the model’s own strongest probabilities, with our fair price, not a bookmaker offer.

Two legs, two different matches, built from the round’s own probabilities. Same numbers, three appetites for risk.

Fair odds are 1 divided by our own probability, with no bookmaker margin. These are model combinations, not value calls and not advice.

A walk-forward replay of the vault: the model is re-run on every past match with only the data it would have had, and its call is graded against what happened. That is why the counts run to tens of thousands, and it is a backtest, not our published record. A call is ours when the model put it above 50 percent.

The round’s sharpest reads on the markets most sites never price. Every tip links to that match’s own page for the full ladder.

Corners

Medium riskThe middle of the book: still our call, with a real price.

• 65.9%Under 9.5 cornersKifisia vs Levadeiakos1.52
• 63.6%Under 9.5 cornersPanathinaikos vs Panetolikos1.57

High riskStill our call, but only just. The longest price we will stand behind.

• 60.8%Under 9.5 cornersVenezia vs Fiorentina1.64
• 60.8%Over 9.5 cornersPreston vs Lincoln1.64

Line: 9.5 corners. Calibration grade C: range, not a point.

Cards

Low risk

• 78.5%Over 3.5 cardsKalamata vs Volos NFC1.27
• 78.3%Over 3.5 cardsAndorra vs Sociedad B1.28

Medium risk

• 69.9%Over 3.5 cardsAcademico Viseu vs Guimaraes1.43
• 69.8%Over 3.5 cardsMoreirense vs Maritimo1.43

High risk

• 60.5%Under 3.5 cardsAtalanta vs Cagliari1.65
• 60.4%Over 3.5 cardsGalatasaray vs Kocaelispor1.65

Line: 3.5 cards. Calibration grade C: range, not a point.

Shots

Medium risk

• 68.9%Over 24.5 shotsKarlsruhe vs Cottbus1.45
• 67.7%Over 24.5 shotsSt Pauli vs Wolfsburg1.48

High risk

• 60.9%Over 24.5 shotsFreiburg vs M'gladbach1.64
• 60.9%Under 24.5 shotsGuingamp vs Annecy1.64

Line: 24.5 shots. Calibration grade C: range, not a point.

Goals

Low risk

• 76.7%Over 2.5 goalsPSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam1.30
• 76.3%Over 2.5 goalsElversberg vs Bayern Munich1.31

Medium risk

• 67.9%Over 2.5 goalsCambuur vs Nijmegen1.47
• 67.8%Over 2.5 goalsAZ Alkmaar vs Willem II1.48

High risk

• 61.0%Under 2.5 goalsBlackburn vs Millwall1.64
• 60.9%Over 2.5 goalsFC Koln vs Werder Bremen1.64

Line: 2.5 goals. Calibration grade B: calibrated.

Both teams to score

Low risk

• 71.9%Both teams to scoreHoffenheim vs Stuttgart1.39

Medium risk

• 68.5%Both teams to scoreCordoba vs Almeria1.46
• 67.4%Both teams to scoreRennes vs Marseille1.48

High risk

• 60.9%Both teams to scoreManchester United vs Manchester City1.64
• 60.6%Both teams to scoreNurnberg vs Hannover1.65

Calibration grade B: calibrated.

Double chance

Low risk

• 91.7%St. Gilloise or drawSt. Gilloise vs Lommel SK1.09
• 91.6%Bayern Munich or drawElversberg vs Bayern Munich1.09

Medium risk

• 69.5%No drawLecce vs Monza1.44
• 69.4%No drawTenerife vs Leganes1.44

Calibration grade B: calibrated.

Where our model and the bookmaker's own price disagree most. Our own out-of-sample testing says the closing line usually wins, so this is a map of disagreement, never a tip.

+27 pp

Wrexham to win

West Ham vs Wrexham

Market16.7%Road2Sushi43.8%

Book price5.25Match result

+21 pp

Castellon to win

Girona vs Castellon

Market29.2%Road2Sushi50.2%

Book price3.20Match result

+17 pp

Red Star to win

Red Star vs Metz

Market35.7%Road2Sushi52.8%

Book price2.50Match result

+15 pp

Eyupspor to win

Eyupspor vs Rizespor

Market22.9%Road2Sushi38.2%

Book price3.90Match result

+14 pp

Under 2.5 goals

Olympiakos vs OFI Crete

Market36.7%Road2Sushi51.0%

Book price2.50Totals

+14 pp

Union Berlin to win

Union Berlin vs Schalke 04

Market39.0%Road2Sushi53.3%

Book price2.45Match result

One call per market: the round's strongest read, at our own fair price. Fair odds are 1 divided by our probability, with no bookmaker margin, so a real book will pay less than this. Never advice.

Double chanceSt. Gilloise or drawSt. Gilloise vs Lommel SK91.7%1.09fairCardsOver 3.5 cardsKalamata vs Volos NFC78.5%1.27fairGoalsOver 2.5 goalsPSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam76.7%1.30fairBoth teams to scoreBoth teams to scoreHoffenheim vs Stuttgart71.9%1.39fairShotsOver 24.5 shotsKarlsruhe vs Cottbus68.9%1.45fairCornersUnder 9.5 cornersKifisia vs Levadeiakos65.9%1.52fair

The whole round in one table: the most likely outcome and our fair price per market. Where the number is under 50 percent it is the leader, not our call: a call is ours only above 50. A blank cell means we hold no line for that market in that match.

Match	Result	Goals	Corners	Cards	Shots
Darmstadt v Bielefeld17:30	41.3%Darmstadt	59.0%Over 2.5	58.7%Over 9.5	58.5%Over 3.5	67.4%Over 24.5
Nurnberg v Hannover17:30	46.0%Nurnberg	58.4%Over 2.5	54.9%Over 9.5	65.4%Over 3.5	63.9%Over 24.5
Besiktas v Erzurumspor18:00	70.7%Besiktas	61.0%Over 2.5	52.5%Under 9.5	65.6%Over 3.5	55.1%Over 24.5
AZ Alkmaar v Willem II19:00	68.3%AZ Alkmaar	67.8%Over 2.5	58.1%Over 9.5	68.2%Under 3.5	61.7%Over 24.5
Clermont v Boulogne19:00	38.8%Clermont	67.6%Under 2.5	55.9%Under 9.5	50.8%Under 3.5	62.5%Under 24.5
Dijon v Laval19:00	36.6%Dijon	55.6%Under 2.5	56.7%Under 9.5	51.6%Over 3.5	60.0%Under 24.5
Montpellier v Pau FC19:00	50.6%Montpellier	53.5%Under 2.5	57.3%Under 9.5	56.4%Over 3.5	58.3%Under 24.5
Nancy v Reims19:00	47.8%Reims	54.3%Under 2.5	57.9%Under 9.5	55.6%Over 3.5	58.8%Under 24.5
Rodez v Grenoble19:00	49.6%Rodez	52.1%Over 2.5	53.8%Under 9.5	50.7%Under 3.5	57.7%Under 24.5
Union Berlin v Schalke 0419:30	53.3%Union Berlin	59.2%Over 2.5	51.8%Over 9.5	51.3%Over 3.5	58.9%Over 24.5
Burgos v Ceuta19:30	56.7%Burgos	58.0%Under 2.5	59.3%Under 9.5	75.4%Over 3.5	53.6%Under 24.5
Rennes v Marseille19:45	39.4%Rennes	66.3%Over 2.5	50.5%Over 9.5	51.8%Over 3.5	54.6%Over 24.5
Mechelen v Anderlecht19:45	41.6%Anderlecht	55.5%Over 2.5	54.7%Over 9.5	57.9%Over 3.5	60.7%Over 24.5
Venezia v Fiorentina19:45	41.3%Fiorentina	55.2%Under 2.5	60.8%Under 9.5	55.7%Over 3.5	50.7%Under 24.5
West Ham v Wrexham20:00	43.8%Wrexham	51.2%Under 2.5	57.8%Over 9.5	53.9%Under 3.5	50.9%Under 24.5
Sevilla v Valencia20:00	46.7%Sevilla	54.9%Under 2.5	54.7%Under 9.5	66.9%Over 3.5	55.0%Under 24.5
Bochum v Greuther Furth12:00	50.5%Bochum	55.3%Over 2.5	55.7%Over 9.5	66.7%Over 3.5	64.6%Over 24.5
Braunschweig v Dresden12:00	39.9%Braunschweig	59.4%Over 2.5	60.1%Over 9.5	64.9%Over 3.5	66.9%Over 24.5
Magdeburg v Kaiserslautern12:00	41.6%Magdeburg	58.7%Over 2.5	53.1%Over 9.5	69.4%Over 3.5	63.7%Over 24.5
Bolton v Cardiff12:30	42.0%Bolton	53.8%Under 2.5	57.8%Over 9.5	53.6%Under 3.5	52.8%Over 24.5
Derby v Birmingham12:30	38.7%Derby	54.6%Under 2.5	57.0%Over 9.5	51.2%Over 3.5	54.3%Under 24.5
West Brom v QPR12:30	44.3%West Brom	57.1%Under 2.5	56.7%Over 9.5	54.2%Under 3.5	52.4%Under 24.5
Crawley Town v Cheltenham12:30	41.1%Crawley Town	52.7%Over 2.5	54.5%Over 9.5	51.4%Over 3.5	53.0%Under 24.5
Grimsby v Bristol Rvs12:30	45.4%Grimsby	51.5%Over 2.5	52.3%Over 9.5	57.0%Over 3.5	53.8%Under 24.5
Santander v Alaves13:00	40.9%Alaves	52.2%Under 2.5	53.0%Over 9.5	67.0%Over 3.5	50.2%Under 24.5
Guingamp v Annecy13:00	38.6%Annecy	51.8%Under 2.5	57.5%Under 9.5	50.1%Under 3.5	60.9%Under 24.5
Sochaux v Nantes13:00	39.7%Sochaux	55.2%Under 2.5	57.3%Under 9.5	50.2%Under 3.5	57.6%Under 24.5
Andorra v Sociedad B13:00	53.8%Andorra	55.2%Over 2.5	55.7%Under 9.5	78.3%Over 3.5	55.2%Over 24.5
Genoa v Frosinone14:00	42.6%Genoa	58.9%Under 2.5	59.9%Under 9.5	54.1%Over 3.5	51.3%Under 24.5
Augsburg v Leverkusen14:30	44.3%Leverkusen	64.9%Over 2.5	51.8%Over 9.5	55.6%Over 3.5	60.7%Over 24.5
Dortmund v Paderborn14:30	73.9%Dortmund	67.4%Over 2.5	52.4%Over 9.5	50.0%Under 3.5	58.1%Over 24.5
Freiburg v M'gladbach14:30	53.3%Freiburg	59.0%Over 2.5	50.4%Under 9.5	50.4%Over 3.5	60.9%Over 24.5
Hoffenheim v Stuttgart14:30	40.9%Hoffenheim	72.1%Over 2.5	54.3%Over 9.5	52.5%Over 3.5	61.8%Over 24.5
Mainz v Ein Frankfurt14:30	51.7%Mainz	63.2%Over 2.5	52.1%Over 9.5	54.5%Over 3.5	58.5%Over 24.5
Blackburn v Millwall15:00	39.0%Millwall	61.0%Under 2.5	61.8%Over 9.5	52.4%Under 3.5	51.2%Over 24.5
Charlton v Portsmouth15:00	38.5%Charlton	58.8%Under 2.5	59.0%Over 9.5	51.5%Under 3.5	51.4%Under 24.5
Middlesbrough v Norwich15:00	48.1%Middlesbrough	52.7%Over 2.5	61.3%Over 9.5	53.3%Over 3.5	52.7%Over 24.5
Preston v Lincoln15:00	47.2%Preston	52.0%Under 2.5	60.8%Over 9.5	54.0%Under 3.5	52.2%Over 24.5
Southampton v Bristol City15:00	57.0%Southampton	59.3%Over 2.5	59.0%Over 9.5	52.9%Over 3.5	52.2%Over 24.5
Swansea v Burnley15:00	56.5%Swansea	52.2%Under 2.5	54.4%Over 9.5	53.9%Over 3.5	50.7%Over 24.5

Every match gets a calibrated probability. We only call a price worth taking when the numbers say so, which is rarer than the industry pretends.

Premier League2026-09-12

Aston Villa

VS

Nottingham Forest

Model’s pickHome win41.7%

1X2 · Match result

1

41.7%

X

27.6%

2

30.7%

Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)

Over 2.5

48.2%

BTTS (Yes)

53.1%

Premier League2026-09-12

Bournemouth

VS

Brentford

Model’s pickHome win44.5%

1X2 · Match result

1

44.5%

X

24.6%

2

30.9%

Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)

Over 2.5

55.8%

BTTS (Yes)

59.0%

Premier League2026-09-12

Chelsea

VS

Hull

Model’s pickHome win63.3%

1X2 · Match result

1

63.3%

X

20.5%

2

16.2%

Over 2.5 & BTTS (Yes)

Over 2.5

60.8%

BTTS (Yes)

57.7%

Why Road2Sushi?

A different kind of betting platform. Built on data, not promises.

Our missionTo bring honesty, transparency and real data to football betting.Learn more

Honest and transparentAll calls and results are public. No hidden picks, no fake stats.

Public track recordSee exactly how every agent performs over time, misses included.

Calibrated probabilitiesOut-of-sample calibration error 0.0095, measured, not claimed.

Multiple AI agentsDifferent strategies for different markets. Find the one that fits your style.

We do not beat the sharp closing market, and we say so. What we sell is nothing: the value is calibrated numbers, a No-bet discipline and a public ledger of every call. See the record.

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Updated: 11 Sep 2026, 19:20 · build 9a6b58d · calibration isotonic-1x2.v1
Glossary · 18+ · Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware / Gambling Therapy