Honesty ledger

Every published prediction, graded: the Honesty Ledger

Every published prediction, judged against its stored call and verified final result.

Every settled prediction this site has published, judged against the original stored card, including records whose public match URLs have retired. Stored numbers are preserved. Older records may have been refreshed before snapshot sealing was introduced; their original pre-kickoff version is not independently verified. The worst weeks are highlighted first, on purpose.

  • 1,566 published records
  • 1,344 graded
  • 222 without verified final score

The receipt

Full prediction record: 1566 canonical records; 1344 graded; 222 without a verified final score; 0 settled pages without valid published probabilities; 66 verified duplicate URLs excluded; 829 legacy snapshots without a version timestamp. 793 records have left public search/archive listings; 10 public match URLs have retired. No date window or latest-post cap is applied to scoring.

This is the receipt. If we said 60 percent across a group of calls, then roughly 60 percent of them should have landed: promised and delivered should match. Hit rate on its own proves nothing, because favourites win about half the time whoever picks them.

Published calls, counted without a date window or latest-post cap.

  • 0 settled pages without valid published probabilities
  • 66 verified duplicate URLs excluded
  • 10 retired public match URLs
  • 793 records left public search/archive listings
1344Settled predictions
49.9%Delivered
-0.9 ppGap

Top-pick promised: 48.9%. Gap is promised minus delivered, in percentage points.

Worst week 2026-W39: 25.0% top-pick hits (20 matches) · best week 2026-W40: 61.1% (18)

Recent weeks

Settled predictions per week, newest first. A week needs 5 settled calls before it gets a hit rate; below that the count of hits is shown instead.

Settled calls by week, newest first.

  • 2026-W4430settled60.0%hit
  • 2026-W43191settled49.2%hit
  • 2026-W42176settled52.3%hit
  • 2026-W41132settled52.3%hit
  • 2026-W4018settled61.1%hit
  • 2026-W3920settled25.0%hit
  • 2026-W38157settled49.0%hit
  • 2026-W37143settled42.0%hit
  • 2026-W36155settled51.0%hit
  • 2026-W35142settled47.9%hit

A week needs 5 settled calls before a hit rate is shown; smaller samples show hits and counts.

Latest settled

This ledger covers only predictions published on this site (page-level, settled honestly). The model’s full walk-forward evaluation across thousands of historical matches lives on the track record page.

Predictions published on this site. Historical walk-forward evaluation is recorded separately.

Full walk-forward evaluation: track record →