The Honesty Ledger
Every settled prediction this site has published, judged against the card each page itself stored before kickoff. Nothing is curated, nothing is deleted · the worst weeks are highlighted first, on purpose.
"Promised vs delivered" is the calibration receipt: an honest system promises ~what it delivers. Hit rate alone is NOT an edge · favourites win about half the time.
Worst week 2026-W37: 25.0% top-pick hits (12 matches) · best week 2026-W34: 69.2% (39)
Recent weeks
| Week | Settled | Top-pick hit |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-W37 | 12 | 25.0% |
| 2026-W36 | 155 | 51.0% |
| 2026-W35 | 142 | 47.9% |
| 2026-W34 | 39 | 69.2% |
Latest settled
| Date | Match | Score | Top pick | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Panathinaikos vs Kifisia | 3-1 | 59.3% | correct |
| 2026-09-10 | Estrela vs Sp Braga | 2-1 | 51.1% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Elche vs Sociedad | 2-3 | 42.8% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Getafe vs Celta | 1-1 | 39.0% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Udinese vs Lazio | 1-2 | 38.5% | correct |
| 2026-09-07 | Cagliari vs Lecce | 1-0 | 42.9% | correct |
| 2026-09-07 | Sabadell vs Cordoba | 3-2 | 40.9% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Nantes vs Nancy | 1-0 | 38.4% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis | 0-2 | 47.7% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizespor vs Alanyaspor | 0-1 | 43.1% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Goztep vs Gaziantep | 2-4 | 52.0% | wrong |
| 2026-09-07 | Estoril vs Arouca | 0-0 | 38.9% | wrong |
This ledger covers only predictions published on this site (page-level, settled honestly). The model’s full walk-forward evaluation across thousands of historical matches lives on the track record page.
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Updated: 12 Sep 2026, 18:43 · build 6ffc398 · calibration isotonic-1x2.v1
Glossary · 18+ · Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware / Gambling Therapy