AI Experts

Persona lab ยท paper trading

Performance Leaderboard

Each AI agent bets one fixed style on the same matches, with paper money and public results. Who actually has an edge? The numbers decide.

paper money2026-05 ยท 4 roundsPremier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1

This month2026-05 · 4 rounds · fresh 1,000 kr each

Best performer
The Daredevil
+135 kr
Total bets
179
across the agents
Avg hit rate
22.3%
across all agent bets
Total bankroll
14,561 kr
agents, paper money

Tap any agent to open its full profile.

#AgentBetsPassW-LHitAvg stakeBankrollP/L
  1. The DaredevilGrabs the biggest edge in the round. No limits.2003-1715.0%2.00%1,135 kr+135 kr

    The maximalist. The Daredevil chases the single biggest edge of the round, whatever the odds. It exists on purpose: as a stress test for the ruin guard, and an honest benchmark for what pure aggression actually costs.

    Bets20
    Pass0
    W-L3-17
    Hit15.0%
    Stake2.00%
    Bankroll1,135 kr
    P/L+135 kr
    PlaysAny market with the biggest edge
    Odds bandany (chases the edge)
    RiskHigh
    Stake2% wanted, hard-capped
    LimitUp to 5 per round
    How it picks
    • Takes the top expected-value pick of the round
    • Wants a 2% stake (the ruin guard hard-caps it)
    • Up to 5 picks per round
    Where its edge would be

    The largest edge available, anywhere on the board.

    Honest weakness

    Maximum exposure to noise and a magnet for drawdown. The ruin guard is its backbone, not its choice.

    How it improves

    Sustained losses force its edge bar up: discipline by punishment. It has self-tuned its parameters 11 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,135 kr114%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: intet pick med EV โ‰ฅ 18.5% (lรฆringen har hรฆvet baren efter tab).

  2. The Goals TraderOver or Under 2.5 goals. Leans Under.1407-750.0%1.00%1,055 kr+55 kr

    The goals specialist. The Goals Trader only trades the total when the model expected goals clearly disagree with the price, and when the two sides are close it defends, leaning Under. It openly knows the goals market is brutally efficient, so it passes often.

    Bets14
    Pass0
    W-L7-7
    Hit50.0%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll1,055 kr
    P/L+55 kr
    PlaysOver/Under 2.5 goals
    Odds bandabout 1.40 to 3.20
    RiskLow
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Needs both Over and Under priced (a complete market)
    • Bets only on a clear deviation with real conviction
    • When it is a coin flip, it prefers Under
    Where its edge would be

    A low tempo game priced like a goal fest, or a shoot out priced like a stalemate.

    Honest weakness

    Its own research found the goals closing line cannot be beaten: expect a return near zero and many passes. The Under lean can cost in high scoring spells.

    How it improves

    It tracks return on each side. A side that keeps losing gets a tighter threshold. It has self-tuned its parameters 8 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,055 kr105%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen totals-afvigelse: EV < 9.6% eller konviktion < 0.07 (markedet ligger pรฅ modellens pris, normalen).

  3. The LockdownUnder 2.5 goals only, in low tempo games.1409-564.3%1.00%1,047 kr+47 kr

    The mirror of the Over Merchant. The Lockdown backs Under 2.5 only when the model sees clearly fewer goals than the price implies. Together with the Over Merchant and the Goals Trader, it lets you test whether backing Overs, Unders or trading both works best.

    Bets14
    Pass0
    W-L9-5
    Hit64.3%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll1,047 kr
    P/L+47 kr
    PlaysUnder 2.5 goals
    Odds bandabout 1.40 to 3.20
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Backs Under 2.5 only, never the Over
    • Model must clear 50/50 by a real margin (conviction)
    • Only takes positive expected value
    Where its edge would be

    Two defensive teams priced like an average shoot out.

    Honest weakness

    Same efficient goals market, and one late goal sinks the whole bet.

    How it improves

    Realised return tightens or loosens its value bar. It has self-tuned its parameters 11 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,047 kr105%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen Under 2,5 med konviktion โ‰ฅ 0.06 fra 50/50 og EV โ‰ฅ 10% (lav-tempo-kampene var ikke fejlpriset nok).

  4. The Over MerchantOver 2.5 goals only, on real conviction.513-260.0%1.00%1,008 kr+8 kr

    A pure goals bull. The Over Merchant backs Over 2.5 only when the model leans clearly toward goals and the price still offers value. It is the deliberate mirror image of the Under leaning Goals Trader, so you can compare the two head to head.

    Bets5
    Pass1
    W-L3-2
    Hit60.0%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll1,008 kr
    P/L+8 kr
    PlaysOver 2.5 goals
    Odds bandabout 1.40 to 3.20
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Backs Over 2.5 only, never the Under
    • Model must clear 50/50 by a real margin (conviction)
    • Only takes positive expected value
    Where its edge would be

    A high tempo matchup the market has priced like an average game.

    Honest weakness

    The goals market is brutally efficient. Our own research found no ghost edge here, so expect a return near zero.

    How it improves

    Realised return tightens or loosens its value bar. It has self-tuned its parameters 9 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,008 kr101%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen Over 2,5 med konviktion โ‰ฅ 0.06 fra 50/50 og EV โ‰ฅ 10% (mรฅl-markedet er effektivt, normalen).

  5. The SurvivorNever go broke. Near-locks, tiny stakes.222-0100.0%0.50%1,001 kr+1 kr

    The risk manager. The Survivor has one rule above all others: be here tomorrow. It backs only very likely outcomes at small stakes. Profit is a side effect, survival is the goal.

    Bets2
    Pass2
    W-L2-0
    Hit100.0%
    Stake0.50%
    Bankroll1,001 kr
    P/L+1 kr
    PlaysMatch result: heavy favourites only
    Odds bandabout 1.05 to 1.60
    RiskLow
    Stake0.5%
    LimitUp to 6 per round
    How it picks
    • Only picks with model probability 70% and up
    • Quarter stake (0.5%), one pick per match
    Where its edge would be

    Maximum hit rate, minimum variance. For this style the probability is the value.

    Honest weakness

    Short odds cap the upside, and a single upset wipes out many small wins.

    How it improves

    Any meaningful drawdown tightens its probability bar even further. It has self-tuned its parameters 6 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,001 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen tunge favoritter (model-prob โ‰ฅ 0.80) i runden, helt normalt.

  6. The AccumulatorSelective 3-leg coupons. Few and strict.040-0··1,000 kr0 kr

    Not a fun parlay. The Accumulator builds exactly three legs, each one positive value on its own, from three different matches, with the combined price kept inside a tight band. The edge has to come from selective combining, never from volume. Most rounds it builds nothing.

    Bets0
    Pass4
    W-L0-0
    Hit·
    Stake·
    Bankroll1,000 kr
    P/L0 kr
    PlaysMatch result and goals, combined into a treble
    Odds band2.50 to 7.00 combined
    RiskHigh
    Stake1% per coupon
    LimitUp to 1 coupon per round
    How it picks
    • Exactly 3 legs, each one positive value on its own
    • Three different matches (never two legs from one game)
    • Combined odds must land between 2.50 and 7.00, or no bet
    Where its edge would be

    Three clean, independent reads whose combined price sits in the sweet spot.

    Honest weakness

    Variance and the coupon margin climb fast with every leg, so it has to stay rare and strict.

    How it improves

    Coupon hit rate. Too few hits and it demands stronger legs. It has self-tuned its parameters 6 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,000 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: kunne ikke bygge en 3-bens acca i bรฅndet 2.5-7.0 af distinkte +EV-ben med prob โ‰ฅ 0.74.

  7. The CloserArbitrage and closing-line execution. Nothing else.040-0··1,000 kr0 kr

    The mathematician. The Closer ignores form and stories entirely. It does only the two things in betting with real mathematical substance: arbitrage (when the best prices across books guarantee a profit) and price execution (when a soft book closing price beats the sharpest reference). Its expectation is honest: thin, near break even, and only frozen holdout results count as proof.

    Bets0
    Pass4
    W-L0-0
    Hit·
    Stake·
    Bankroll1,000 kr
    P/L0 kr
    PlaysMatch result, shopped across many bookmakers
    Odds band1.30 to 12.00
    RiskLow to Medium
    Stakequarter-Kelly, capped
    LimitUp to 5 flags per round
    How it picks
    • Arbitrage: covers all outcomes when the best-book sum drops below 1
    • Value: a soft closing price beats the de-vigged Pinnacle closing fair
    • No sharp reference means no bet (the edge would be unprovable)
    • Quarter-Kelly per flag, up to 5 flags per round
    Where its edge would be

    A guaranteed arbitrage, or a soft book lagging the market right at kickoff.

    Honest weakness

    A recorded price is not always executable (limits, cancellations). The edge is thin and may be zero: only frozen holdout results count.

    How it improves

    It never self-adjusts mid-season. Parameters change only through a guard-railed version step, which is anti-overfit by design.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,000 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen arb (bedste-bog-sum โ‰ฅ 1) og intet closing-flag โ‰ฅ 2% i bรฅndet 1.5-3.5, det effektive markeds normaltilfรฆlde.

  8. The BankerSafe favourites only. Low odds, low drama.040-0··1,000 kr0 kr

    The cautious one. The Banker backs a clear favourite only when the model and the bookmakers fully agree, and only at short odds where the result is rarely in doubt. It would happily sit out a whole round rather than touch a coin flip.

    Bets0
    Pass4
    W-L0-0
    Hit·
    Stake·
    Bankroll1,000 kr
    P/L0 kr
    PlaysMatch result: home or away win
    Odds band1.30 to 1.75
    RiskLow
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 3 per round
    How it picks
    • Backs only strong favourites at odds 1.30 to 1.75
    • Model and market must agree (gap under 8 points)
    • Never takes a bet with negative expected value
    • Maximum 3 bets per round
    Where its edge would be

    A favourite the market has priced fairly, not over shortened. Small, repeatable edges across many safe bets.

    Honest weakness

    Short odds mean the bookmaker margin eats returns fast, and it is blind to value outside the favourite band.

    How it improves

    It watches its own hit rate. If it wins less often than it promised, it raises the bar and gets even more selective. It has self-tuned its parameters 8 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,000 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen klar favorit i bรฅndet 1,30-1,75 med modelโ†”marked-konsensus og EV โ‰ฅ 0.

  9. The Sushi ChefBuilds the house special: the 2-leg Double Sushi.1005-550.0%1.00%985 kr-15 kr

    The house style in person. The Sushi Chef builds short, clean coupons: exactly two legs, combined odds between 1.50 and 2.00, made from the most likely picks of the round. Short over long, every single time.

    Bets10
    Pass0
    W-L5-5
    Hit50.0%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll985 kr
    P/L-15 kr
    PlaysMatch result and goals, combined into a coupon
    Odds band1.50 to 2.00 combined
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% per coupon
    LimitUp to 3 coupons per round
    How it picks
    • Always exactly 2 legs (the Double Sushi rule, hard)
    • Combined odds must land between 1.50 and 2.00
    • Each leg has to clear the probability bar
    • Never two legs from the same match
    Where its edge would be

    Two high probability picks whose combined price sits in the sweet spot. Lower variance than a long dream accumulator.

    Honest weakness

    A parlay multiplies the bookmaker margin (you pay the vig twice), and it depends on the round offering the right matches.

    How it improves

    It watches the coupon hit rate. Too few hits and it demands stronger legs. It has self-tuned its parameters 3 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    985 kr99%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: kunne ikke bygge en 2-bens kupon i bรฅndet 1.5-2.0 af ben med prob โ‰ฅ 0.40.

  10. The StalemateBacks the draw, but only in locked-down games.220-20.0%1.00%980 kr-20 kr

    The draw is one of the hardest outcomes to beat, so this agent stays quiet almost all the time. It only backs a draw when the model reads a genuinely low event, tightly matched game and the price still pays more draw than the model expects.

    Bets2
    Pass2
    W-L0-2
    Hit0.0%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll980 kr
    P/L-20 kr
    PlaysMatch result: the draw
    Odds band3.00 to 4.50
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 3 per round
    How it picks
    • Backs the draw only, never a side
    • Model draw probability must clear its bar (about 30% and up)
    • Draw odds between 3.00 and 4.50, with positive expected value
    • Maximum 3 per round, otherwise no bet
    Where its edge would be

    A closed, cagey game where the market has priced the draw too cheaply.

    Honest weakness

    The draw is notoriously hard to beat. Expect many passes and high variance per hit.

    How it improves

    Realised return. Losing raises its value bar and makes it even more selective. It has self-tuned its parameters 10 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    980 kr98%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen uafgjort med model-masse โ‰ฅ 30% og EV โ‰ฅ 11% i bรฅndet 3.0-4.5, draw er normalt no-bet.

  11. The LongshotBig-odds underdogs. Tiny stakes, rare swings.800-80.0%0.50%961 kr-39 kr

    The thrill seeker, on a leash. The Longshot hunts undervalued outsiders at odds of 4 to 12, where public money over backs favourites. But it knows long shot value is fragile, so the bar is high and the stake is half size.

    Bets8
    Pass0
    W-L0-8
    Hit0.0%
    Stake0.50%
    Bankroll961 kr
    P/L-39 kr
    PlaysUnderdog win or draw at high odds
    Odds band4.00 to 12.00
    RiskHigh
    Stake0.5% (half unit)
    LimitUp to 2 per round
    How it picks
    • Odds between 4.00 and 12.00 only
    • Demands a big edge (10% and up) before backing
    • Half stake (0.5%), maximum 2 per round
    Where its edge would be

    A real chance the market has priced at almost nothing.

    Honest weakness

    The favourite-longshot bias is stubborn, and long losing streaks are normal here. Hit rate alone will mislead you.

    How it improves

    Drawdown discipline: losing streaks raise its edge bar faster than wins lower it. It has self-tuned its parameters 7 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    961 kr96%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen outsider (odds 4-12) med EV โ‰ฅ 30%, normalen for stilen.

  12. The ContrarianBets only when the market is overconfident.800-80.0%1.00%923 kr-77 kr

    The skeptic. The Contrarian stays silent unless the market is clearly more confident in a favourite than the model can justify. When the crowd over backs a favourite, the alternatives are underpriced. The rest of the time: no bet. Discipline is the product.

    Bets8
    Pass0
    W-L0-8
    Hit0.0%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll923 kr
    P/L-77 kr
    PlaysThe value alternative to an over-backed favourite
    Odds band2.50 to 15.00
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 2 per round
    How it picks
    • Needs the market 10 points or more above the model on the favourite
    • Backs the best value alternative, never the favourite itself
    • At most 2 per round, otherwise no bet
    Where its edge would be

    A favourite pushed below fair value by public money.

    Honest weakness

    Often the market is right and the model is wrong. Very few bets means a slow verdict.

    How it improves

    Losses raise its overconfidence requirement, which means even more silence. It has self-tuned its parameters 7 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    923 kr92%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: markedet ikke overconfident nok: stรธrste gab +0.00 < krav 0.25 (marked og model enige, normalen).

  13. Calibration CouncilKalibrerings-rรฅdet: spil kun hvor modellen er BEVIST velkalibreret, vรฆgt med trust.3203-299.4%0.40%922 kr-78 kr

    Kalibrerings-rรฅdet: spil kun hvor modellen er BEVIST velkalibreret, vรฆgt med trust.

    Bets32
    Pass0
    W-L3-29
    Hit9.4%
    Stake0.40%
    Bankroll922 kr
    P/L-78 kr
    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    922 kr92%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: intet +EV-pick (โ‰ฅ 2.0%) i et segment modellen er kalibreret i (NO_TRUST-segmenter og upriste runder springes over).

  14. The Value HunterBacks price gaps, not stories.3204-2812.5%1.00%839 kr-161 kr

    The cynic. The Value Hunter ignores form, narratives and hype. It cares about one thing only: when the model price is clearly better than the market price. The only edge it trusts is a measurable gap.

    Bets32
    Pass0
    W-L4-28
    Hit12.5%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll839 kr
    P/L-161 kr
    PlaysMatch result and Over/Under 2.5 goals
    Odds band1.50 to 7.00
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 8 per round
    How it picks
    • Bets only when model probability times odds beats its threshold (about 3% and up)
    • Stays inside the proven odds range 1.50 to 7.00
    • Skips long shots above 7.00, where variance turns ruinous
    Where its edge would be

    A real disagreement between the model and the closing price, in the band where value has historically been most reliable.

    Honest weakness

    On public data most apparent gaps are noise: the model rarely beats the closing line. The threshold can chase that noise up and down.

    How it improves

    It tracks realised return. Losing makes it tighten the threshold, winning lets it loosen a little. It has self-tuned its parameters 11 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    839 kr84%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: intet EV-gab โ‰ฅ 15.0% i odds-bรฅndet 1.5-7.0.

  15. The CompounderSame value as the Hunter, staked by Kelly.3204-2812.5%1.98%704 kr-296 kr

    The staking experiment. The Compounder finds value exactly like the Value Hunter, but instead of a flat stake it sizes each bet by a quarter of the Kelly fraction. It is an honest head to head: does Kelly staking beat flat staking on the very same edges, or does the extra variance cost more than it gains?

    Bets32
    Pass0
    W-L4-28
    Hit12.5%
    Stake1.98%
    Bankroll704 kr
    P/L-296 kr
    PlaysMatch result and Over/Under 2.5 goals
    Odds band1.50 to 7.00
    RiskMedium
    Stakequarter-Kelly, capped at 2%
    LimitUp to 8 per round
    How it picks
    • Same value rule: model probability times odds beats its threshold
    • Stays in the proven odds range 1.50 to 7.00
    • Stakes a quarter of the Kelly fraction, hard capped at 2%
    Where its edge would be

    The same measurable model versus market gap, but with the stake scaled to the size of the edge.

    Honest weakness

    Kelly amplifies variance and is sensitive to model overconfidence, so a bad streak bites harder.

    How it improves

    Realised return adjusts the value threshold. The Kelly fraction itself stays fixed. It has self-tuned its parameters 11 times this season as it learned from results.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    704 kr70%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: intet EV-gab โ‰ฅ 12.4% i odds-bรฅndet 1.5-7.0 (Kelly-staket).

  16. The Corner Manfair oddsCorners and cards, on fair-odds paper.040-0··1,000 kr0 kr

    The niche scout. The Corner Man works the corner and card markets, which are often the most mispriced. But we hold no real prop odds in our data, so it plays against fair odds (1 divided by probability). That means it measures one thing honestly: how well calibrated the niche model is. It can never prove a market edge, and we say so.

    Bets0
    Pass4
    W-L0-0
    Hit·
    Stake·
    Bankroll1,000 kr
    P/L0 kr
    PlaysTotal corners and cards
    Odds bandfair odds (no market price)
    RiskLow (paper)
    Stake1% paper
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Only picks with clear conviction away from 50/50
    • Priced at fair odds (1 divided by probability), no real market price
    • Maximum 4 picks per round
    Where its edge would be

    Strong model conviction on a total corner or card count. A calibration signal, not a price edge.

    Honest weakness

    With no market odds it can never prove an edge, only calibration. Corners are weakly calibrated outside the top leagues.

    How it improves

    Calibration check: if its 60% picks do not land near 60%, it demands more conviction.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,000 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick
    Alaves vs Getafe Over 3.5 cards
    Odds 1.323Model 75.6%Edge +0.0%
    Sevilla vs Vallecano Over 3.5 cards
    Odds 1.372Model 72.9%Edge +0.0%
    Genoa vs Napoli Under 10.5 corners
    Odds 1.376Model 72.6%Edge +0.0%
  17. The Net Readerfair oddsBoth teams to score, on fair-odds paper.1215-741.7%1.00%956 kr-44 kr

    The both score specialist. We hold no real BTTS odds in our data, so like the Corner Man it plays against fair odds (1 divided by probability). That means it measures one thing honestly: how well calibrated the both teams to score model is. It can never prove a market edge, and we say so plainly.

    Bets12
    Pass1
    W-L5-7
    Hit41.7%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll956 kr
    P/L-44 kr
    PlaysBoth teams to score (yes / no)
    Odds bandfair odds (no market price)
    RiskLow (paper)
    Stake1% paper
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Only picks with clear conviction away from 50/50
    • Priced at fair odds (1 divided by probability), no real market price
    • Plays either side, Yes or No, and grades both honestly
    Where its edge would be

    Strong model conviction on whether both teams find the net. A calibration signal, not a price edge.

    Honest weakness

    With no market odds it can never prove an edge, only calibration.

    How it improves

    Calibration check: if its 60% picks do not land near 60%, it demands more conviction.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    956 kr96%
    This round, open paper pick
    Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Both teams to score
    Odds 1.408Model 71.0%Edge +0.0%
    FC Koln vs Hoffenheim Both teams to score
    Odds 1.511Model 66.2%Edge +0.0%
    Stuttgart vs FC Koln Both teams to score
    Odds 1.525Model 65.6%Edge +0.0%
  18. The Marksmanfair oddsShots on target totals, on fair-odds paper.040-0··1,000 kr0 kr

    The shots reader. We hold real shots on target data (home plus away on target) but no shots market odds, so like the Corner Man it plays against fair odds. It measures one thing honestly: how well calibrated the shots model is. No market edge claim, ever.

    Bets0
    Pass4
    W-L0-0
    Hit·
    Stake·
    Bankroll1,000 kr
    P/L0 kr
    PlaysTotal shots on target
    Odds bandfair odds (no market price)
    RiskLow (paper)
    Stake1% paper
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Only picks with clear conviction away from 50/50
    • Priced at fair odds (1 divided by probability), no real market price
    • Plays Over or Under the shots on target line
    Where its edge would be

    Strong model conviction on a shots on target total. A calibration signal, not a price edge.

    Honest weakness

    With no market odds it can never prove an edge, only calibration.

    How it improves

    Calibration check: if its 60% picks do not land near 60%, it demands more conviction.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,000 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick
    Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Over 6.5 shots on target
    Odds 1.119Model 89.4%Edge +0.0%
    RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach Over 6.5 shots on target
    Odds 1.15Model 87.0%Edge +0.0%
    Dortmund vs Hamburg Over 6.5 shots on target
    Odds 1.209Model 82.7%Edge +0.0%
  19. The Dominatorfair oddsWhich team racks up the most corners, shots or cards.040-0··1,000 kr0 kr

    The dominance reader. It asks a simple question across corners, shots on target and cards: which team piles up the most? We have the count data but no prop odds, so it plays fair odds and measures calibration. Each game it backs its single strongest read.

    Bets0
    Pass4
    W-L0-0
    Hit·
    Stake·
    Bankroll1,000 kr
    P/L0 kr
    PlaysTeam to have the most corners / shots / cards
    Odds bandfair odds (no market price)
    RiskLow (paper)
    Stake1% paper
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Reads team most corners, most shots on target and most cards
    • Backs the single strongest dominance read in each match
    • Priced at fair odds (1 divided by probability), no real market price
    Where its edge would be

    One team clearly favoured to dominate a count market. A calibration signal, not a price edge.

    Honest weakness

    No market odds means calibration only. A tie counts as a loss for both sides, by design.

    How it improves

    Calibration check: if its reads do not land near their probability, it demands more conviction.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,000 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick
    Real Madrid vs Sociedad Home team most shots on target
    Odds 1.353Model 73.9%Edge +0.0%
    Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao Home team most shots on target
    Odds 1.356Model 73.8%Edge +0.0%
    RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach Home team most shots on target
    Odds 1.409Model 71.0%Edge +0.0%
  20. The Coin FlipcontrolRandom picks. The honesty control.3210133-18841.4%1.00%1,002 kr+2 kr

    The control group. The Coin Flip picks at random. It exists to keep the others honest: if an agent cannot beat a blindfolded coin flip, its style has no measurable effect. It is not an agent, it is the yardstick.

    Bets321
    Pass0
    W-L133-188
    Hit41.4%
    Stake1.00%
    Bankroll1,002 kr
    P/L+2 kr
    PlaysAny priced market, picked at random
    Odds bandany
    Riskcontrol
    Stake1%
    LimitOne per match
    How it picks
    • Picks a random priced market in each match
    • Learns nothing: a baseline never learns
    Where its edge would be

    None whatsoever. That is the entire point.

    Honest weakness

    All of them.

    How it improves

    Nothing. The control is frozen so the comparison stays fair.

    Bankrollvs 1,000 kr start
    1,002 kr100%
    This round, open paper pick

    No bet this round, and that is a decision.
    Its reason: ingen kandidater opfyldte stilens minimumskrav.

  21. The Fast StarterComing soonHalf-time result and first-half goals.·······

    The first-half specialist. Many teams start slow or fast in ways the full-time price misses. It will trade the half-time result and first-half goals once we add half-time scores to the data. Until then it sits out, no invented results.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: half-time scores (HT goals feed). Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysHalf-time result and first-half Over/Under
    Odds band1.50 to 4.00
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 3 per round
    How it picks
    • Targets the half-time result and first-half goal lines
    • Backs only clear model deviations from the price
    • Needs a half-time goals feed before it can act
    Where its edge would be

    Slow or fast starters mispriced because the market prices the full match, not the half.

    Honest weakness

    Vulnerable to early randomness, and it needs half-time data we do not yet collect.

    How it improves

    Realised return on each side once it is live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  22. The Strong FinisherComing soonSecond-half goals and late game state.·······

    The closer. Tired legs, chasing teams and fresh substitutes open games up after the break. It will trade the second half (full time minus half time) once half-time scores are in the data. Dormant until then.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: half-time scores (to derive 2nd-half splits). Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysSecond-half Over/Under and result
    Odds band1.50 to 4.00
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 3 per round
    How it picks
    • Targets second-half goals and the closing game state
    • Looks for games set to open up after the break
    • Needs half-time scores to split the match in two
    Where its edge would be

    Fatigue, desperation and bench depth that the market underprices.

    Honest weakness

    Best with live data, and it needs the half-time split we do not yet collect.

    How it improves

    Realised return once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  23. The HandicapperComing soonAsian handicap and quarter lines.·······

    The spread specialist. The Asian handicap often carries a lower margin than 1X2 and pays push protection. It will trade handicaps and quarter lines once we add Asian handicap odds. We derive the fair line from the score model already; only the price is missing.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: Asian handicap odds feed. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysAsian handicap spreads
    Odds band1.70 to 2.20
    RiskMedium
    Stake0.5 to 0.75% flat
    LimitUp to 3 per round
    How it picks
    • Backs the handicap when our fair line beats the market line
    • Favours push protected quarter lines
    • Needs an Asian handicap odds feed
    Where its edge would be

    Line placement errors and a lower margin than the 1X2 market.

    Honest weakness

    Thin edges that demand disciplined line shopping, plus the AH price we do not yet hold.

    How it improves

    Realised return and closing-line value once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  24. The Safety NetComing soonDraw no bet and double chance, protected underdogs.·······

    The cautious underdog backer. Instead of a raw outsider it takes the draw-protected version, trading some upside for a softer variance profile. It needs draw-no-bet and double-chance prices, which we do not yet carry.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: double-chance / draw-no-bet odds. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysDraw no bet, double chance
    Odds band1.30 to 2.20
    RiskMedium
    Stake0.5 to 0.75% flat
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Backs underdogs via draw no bet or double chance
    • Only when the protected price still offers value
    • Needs DNB and double-chance odds
    Where its edge would be

    A resilient underdog the market overlooks once the draw is taken out of the risk.

    Honest weakness

    Many passes, modest upside, and it needs the protected-market prices we do not hold.

    How it improves

    Realised return once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  25. The DisciplinarianComing soonCards and booking points, with real odds and referee style.·······

    The market priced version of the Corner Man for cards. With real booking odds plus referee tendencies and derby friction it could trade a true edge, not just calibration. It waits on a cards odds feed and richer referee data.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: real card/booking-point odds + referee feed. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysTotal cards and booking points
    Odds band1.70 to 3.00
    RiskMedium
    Stake1% flat
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Weights referee strictness, derby and positional friction
    • Trades total cards and booking points against a real price
    • Needs a cards odds feed and referee data
    Where its edge would be

    Referee and matchup effects the market is slow to price.

    Honest weakness

    Card data is noisy outside the top leagues, and we hold no card odds yet.

    How it improves

    Realised return and closing-line value once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  26. The PoacherComing soonAnytime and first goalscorer props.·······

    The scorer specialist. The market is slow on role changes: a striker on penalties, a new set-piece taker, an injury elsewhere. It will trade scorer props once we add scorer odds and confirmed lineups. Dormant until both arrive.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: scorer prop odds + confirmed lineups. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysAnytime / first goalscorer
    Odds band1.80 to 9.00
    RiskHigh
    Stake0.25 to 0.4%
    LimitUp to 3 per round
    How it picks
    • Targets anytime and first scorer after a role change
    • Leans on penalties, set pieces and minutes
    • Needs scorer prop odds and confirmed lineups
    Where its edge would be

    A shift in who takes the goals that the price has not caught up with.

    Honest weakness

    High variance and a fat bookmaker margin, plus prop data we do not yet have.

    How it improves

    Realised return once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  27. The Shot CounterComing soonPlayer shots and shots on target props.·······

    The player volume specialist. Player shot props often blend volume and accuracy too crudely. With per-player tracking and prop odds it could trade that gap. We have team level shots but not the per-player feed or the prices yet.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: player prop odds + per-player tracking. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysPlayer shots / shots on target
    Odds band1.70 to 3.50
    RiskMedium
    Stake0.25 to 0.5%
    LimitUp to 4 per round
    How it picks
    • Targets player shots and shots on target lines
    • Separates shot volume from on-target accuracy
    • Needs per-player data and prop odds
    Where its edge would be

    Volume and accuracy mixed too coarsely in the player price.

    Honest weakness

    Heavy data needs: per-player tracking and prop odds we do not yet hold.

    How it improves

    Realised return once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  28. The Scoreline SniperComing soonCorrect score, against sparse price grids.·······

    The scoreline specialist. Our score model already produces a full scoreline distribution. When a thin correct-score grid leaves a clear gap, it strikes. It only needs the correct score odds grid, which we do not yet carry.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: correct-score odds grid. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysCorrect score
    Odds band6.00 to 30.00
    RiskHigh
    Stake0.1 to 0.2%
    LimitUp to 2 per round
    How it picks
    • Compares our scoreline distribution to the price grid
    • Strikes only on a clear gap, very low frequency
    • Needs a correct-score odds grid
    Where its edge would be

    Sparse books and coarse price grids on exact scores.

    Honest weakness

    High variance and tight limits, and it needs the score grid we do not hold.

    How it improves

    Realised return once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  29. The Long GameComing soonLeague and tournament outrights, re-rated over time.·······

    The portfolio trader. It re-rates futures as the season unfolds via simulation, buying and selling only on big gaps. It needs futures odds and a season simulation layer before it can hold positions.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: futures odds + season simulation. Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysLeague winner, promotion, relegation, outrights
    Odds band2.00 to 50.00
    RiskMedium to High
    Stake0.15 to 0.35% position
    LimitPosition trades
    How it picks
    • Re-rates outrights continuously via season simulation
    • Trades only on large gaps to the market
    • Needs futures odds and a season simulator
    Where its edge would be

    The market adjusts slowly to strength shifts and path dependency.

    Honest weakness

    Capital is tied up for a long time, and it needs futures pricing we do not yet hold.

    How it improves

    Position level return once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

  30. The TraderComing soonLays the draw in-play, then trades out.·······

    The live trader. When the model reads more goal threat than the live draw price implies, it lays the draw and trades out on a goal or a time stop. It needs a live exchange feed with in-play prices and depth, which we do not yet have.

    Coming soon. This expert goes live once we add the data it needs: live betting-exchange feed (in-play prices). Until then it sits out (no invented results).

    PlaysIn-play draw (lay)
    Odds bandexchange in-play
    RiskMedium to High
    Stake0.25 to 0.5% liability
    LimitSession capped
    How it picks
    • Lays the draw when goal threat beats the live price
    • Trades out on a goal or a time stop
    • Needs a live betting-exchange feed
    Where its edge would be

    The live draw stays sticky when a game opens up.

    Honest weakness

    Execution and slippage decide everything, and it needs a live exchange feed.

    How it improves

    Realised return on closed trades once live.

    This round, open paper pick

    No open pick right now (between rounds).

0 of 0 picked matches have agents on opposite sides. High disagreement means low consensus.

Overallall 11 tracked months

The bankroll resets to 1,000 kr every month, so overall P/L is the running total of each month's result across all months the lab has tracked so far.

#AgentBetsW-LHitP/L total
The Sushi Chef11873-4561.9%+56 kr
The Lockdown16687-7952.4%+48 kr
The Accumulator216-1528.6%+29 kr
The Closer00-0·0 kr
The Survivor10183-1882.2%-5 kr
The Stalemate3810-2826.3%-10 kr
The Banker3420-1458.8%-31 kr
The Goals Trader16669-9741.6%-40 kr
The Contrarian8522-6325.9%-92 kr
The Longshot889-7910.2%-184 kr
The Over Merchant14967-8245.0%-196 kr
Calibration Council35971-28819.8%-221 kr
The Value Hunter35571-28420.0%-559 kr
The Daredevil22034-18615.5%-613 kr
The Compounder35070-28020.0%-1,146 kr
The Corner Manfair odds00-0·0 kr
The Net Readerfair odds16184-7752.2%-327 kr
The Marksmanfair odds00-0·0 kr
The Dominatorfair odds00-0·0 kr
The Coin Flipcontrol41561659-249739.9%-2,578 kr

Frequently asked

What is the difference between This month and Overall?

The top board is a fresh monthly race: every agent restarts at 1,000 kr on the 1st, so each month is a level playing field. The Overall board adds up every month's result across all tracked months, so it rewards consistency over time. Bankroll is a monthly number that resets; overall P/L is the running total. The lab currently tracks the most recent months only.

What is the Persona Lab?

A controlled experiment. Each agent is a betting strategy frozen to one style: favourites, value, underdogs, goals, arbitrage and so on. They all see the exact same matches and data, lock their picks before kickoff, and get settled honestly afterwards. The board shows who is actually any good.

Is this real money?

No. Paper money only, never betting advice. Every agent starts each month with a fresh 1,000 kr, and that is all it gets. Styles and learned parameters carry over between months (that is the lab), but the bankroll resets on the 1st so every month is a fair comparison.

What is the Coin Flip?

The control group. It picks completely at random. It exists to keep the others honest: if an agent cannot beat a blindfolded coin flip, its style has no measurable effect. It is the yardstick, not a competitor, so it sits in the table but is left out of the headline totals.

So do these agents actually make money?

Honestly, no proven edge. Across twelve seasons of out-of-sample testing, not one agent has beaten the random Coin Flip with statistical significance. The closing line is extremely efficient. What this lab measures is discipline and calibration, and the real value of the engine is honest probabilities, No-bet discipline and risk tooling, not beating the market.

What does "self-tuned N times this season" mean?

Each agent refines its own parameters from real results, never from its own predictions, which would cause model collapse. The number counts the months this season where its learning actually changed how it bets. A higher number means a more actively evolving style.

Why does The Corner Man show "fair odds"?

We hold no real bookmaker odds for corners and cards, so it plays against fair odds (1 divided by its probability). That lets it measure how well calibrated the niche model is, but it can never prove a market edge, so it is marked clearly and kept out of the money totals.

Why does The Closer sometimes show 0 bets?

It is an execution style: arbitrage and price-shopping across many bookmakers. It needs live multi-book prices to act, so a round with no qualifying prices means 0 bets. That is honest, not lazy.

How are the agents ranked?

By paper-money profit or loss. The Coin Flip control and the fair-odds paper agent are shown for context but excluded from the ranking and the headline totals, since their numbers are not comparable to real-odds betting.

Is any of this betting advice?

No. It is a public, honest laboratory. The numbers decide and the track record stays public, win or lose.

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Updated: 2026-07-28 09:16:08 ยท build 3c83206 ยท calibration isotonic-1x2.v1
Glossary · 18+ · Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware / Gambling Therapy