Primeira Liga predictions
Calibrated model probabilities for the Primeira Liga fixtures we currently model. We track 9 upcoming matches.
- 9Upcoming predictions
- 18Teams in league
- 50.4%Model avg Over 2.5
- 48.5%Model avg BTTS
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Casa PiaCASSp LisbonSPL
- Home win
- 9.3%
- Draw
- 17.5%
- Away win
- 73.1%
MoreirenseMOREstrelaEST
- Home win
- 45.8%
- Draw
- 27.8%
- Away win
- 26.4%
PortoPOREstorilEST
- Home win
- 76.4%
- Draw
- 15.9%
- Away win
- 7.7%
AroucaARONacionalNAC
- Home win
- 47.7%
- Draw
- 26.4%
- Away win
- 26.0%
Academico ViseuACARio AveRIO
- Home win
- 38.8%
- Draw
- 27.9%
- Away win
- 33.3%
MaritimoMARSanta ClaraSAN
- Home win
- 30.6%
- Draw
- 30.1%
- Away win
- 39.3%
Sp BragaSPBFamalicaoFAM
- Home win
- 53.6%
- Draw
- 25.4%
- Away win
- 21.0%
BenficaBENAlvercaALV
- Home win
- 78.4%
- Draw
- 14.4%
- Away win
- 7.2%
Gil VicenteGILGuimaraesGUI
- Home win
- 37.9%
- Draw
- 29.4%
- Away win
- 32.7%
Primeira Liga score predictions
The most likely correct score in each match. Even the leading scoreline usually has a low probability.
Primeira Liga table and stats (2026/27)
Season 2026/27. 81 league matches played, through 2026-10-26.
Primeira Liga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
Per-game team stats (shots, corners, cards, xG) are on the statistics page.
Season match patterns
Over 2.5 goals
Share of matches
- Primeira Liga
- 56%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Both teams scored
Share of matches
- Primeira Liga
- 49%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Home wins
Share of matches
- Primeira Liga
- 37%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Draws
Share of matches
- Primeira Liga
- 22%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Away wins
Share of matches
- Primeira Liga
- 41%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Stored match analysis
Historical or unresolved fixtures. Final scores are shown only when verified.
- Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica, 26 Oct
- Sporting CP 1-2 Academico Viseu, 25 Oct
- Rio Ave 0-4 Famalicao, 25 Oct
- Nacional 1-0 Sp Braga, 25 Oct
- Estoril 1-3 Moreirense, 25 Oct
- Gil Vicente 0-1 Porto, 24 Oct
- Alverca 0-1 Arouca, 24 Oct
- Estrela 0-2 Casa Pia, 24 Oct
- Guimaraes 5-0 Maritimo, 23 Oct
- Sp Braga 1-2 Gil Vicente, 19 Oct
- Famalicao 1-4 Alverca, 12 Oct
- Arouca 1-0 Estrela, 11 Oct
- Benfica 2-0 Guimaraes, 11 Oct
- Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional, 11 Oct
- Academico Viseu 2-1 Estoril, 10 Oct
- Maritimo 1-2 Porto, 10 Oct
- Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara, 10 Oct
- Sp Braga 1-3 Sporting CP, 9 Oct
- Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente, 9 Oct
Primeira Liga Super 6 style picks: six correct scores
Super 6 itself uses British matches. This is the same Super 6 style idea on the Primeira Liga: the matches where our score earns the most expected points, 5 for the exact score and 2 for the right result.
- 1Benfica vs AlvercaAlso the most likely score · All scores2-012.4% exact1.94 exp. pts
- 2Porto vs EstorilAlso the most likely score · All scores2-013.3% exact1.93 exp. pts
- 3Casa Pia vs Sp LisbonAlso the most likely score · All scores0-213.0% exact1.85 exp. pts
- 4Sp Braga vs FamalicaoMost likely 1-1 (12.1%) · All scores1-011.4% exact1.41 exp. pts
- 5Moreirense vs EstrelaMost likely 1-1 (13.2%) · All scores1-011.6% exact1.27 exp. pts
- 6Arouca vs NacionalMost likely 1-1 (12.6%) · All scores1-010.4% exact1.26 exp. pts
An exact score is always unlikely: the strongest one here has a 13.3% chance. All Premier League and EFL scores for the round are on our Super 6 predictions page.
Primeira Liga referees
Matches in the Primeira Liga since 2025/26, with career yellow cards per game from completed matches. We never publish referee appointments for upcoming matches unless an official source confirms them.
- Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves23 matches5.09
- David Rafael Oliveira da Silva21 matches6.14
- Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo20 matches5.30
- Gustavo Correia19 matches5.32
- Antonio Nobre18 matches5.11
- Joao Pedro Pinheiro18 matches4.50
- Carlos Macedo17 matches3.12
- Jose Bessa16 matches6.56
- Anzhony Rodrigues14 matches3.86
- Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa14 matches3.50
- Helder Malheiro14 matches4.36
- Luis Miguel Branco Godinho14 matches4.36
Primeira Liga fixtures
Linked matches have a full prediction page. Schedule from our fixture feed, refreshed daily; kickoff times can move.
Showing 18 of 18 upcoming league fixtures.
- Fri 30 Oct 2026
- 20:15 UKCasa PiaCASSp LisbonSPL
- Sat 31 Oct 2026
- 15:30 UKMoreirenseMOREstrelaEST
- 20:30 UKPortoPOREstorilEST
- Sun 1 Nov 2026
- 15:30 UKAroucaARONacionalNAC
- 18:00 UKAcademico ViseuACARio AveRIO
- 18:00 UKMaritimoMARSanta ClaraSAN
- 20:30 UKSp BragaSPBFamalicaoFAM
- Mon 2 Nov 2026
- 20:15 UKBenficaBENAlvercaALV
- 20:15 UKGil VicenteGILGuimaraesGUI
- Fri 6 Nov 2026
- 20:45 UKFamalicaoFAMAroucaARO
- Sat 7 Nov 2026
- 15:30 UKNacionalNACAcademico ViseuACA
- 18:00 UKAlvercaALVCasa PiaCAS
- 20:30 UKSp LisbonSPLMoreirenseMOR
- Sun 8 Nov 2026
- 15:30 UKEstorilESTMaritimoMAR
- 15:30 UKSanta ClaraSANGil VicenteGIL
- 18:00 UKGuimaraesGUIPortoPOR
- 20:30 UKEstrelaESTBenficaBEN
- 20:30 UKRio AveRIOSp BragaSPB
Frequently asked questions
How many Primeira Liga matches are predicted?
We currently model 9 upcoming fixtures across 18 teams. Each links to a full page with the calibrated probabilities behind it.
Are these Primeira Liga tips?
No. These are calibration graded model probabilities, not betting advice. Across these 9 matches the model averages 50.4% for Over 2.5 goals.
Who is top of the Primeira Liga?
Porto lead the Primeira Liga (2026/27) with 27 points from 9 games, through 2026-10-26.
How many goals per game in the Primeira Liga this season?
The Primeira Liga is averaging 2.74 goals per match, with 56% of matches going over 2.5 goals across 81 matches played.
Calibration-graded model probabilities, not tips. See our public track record, including the misses.
