AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Segunda División
EldenseEldenseLWWWL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1113:00UK
GranadaGranadaLWWWW

Eldense vs Granada cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.8%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Eldense vs Granada. Slightly more cards are projected for Granada for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.0% 12.0%
3.5 cards 74.2% 25.8%
4.5 cards 56.9% 43.2%
5.5 cards 39.3% 60.7%

Who picks up more cards

Eldense
38.3%
Level
18.2%
Granada
43.5%

Team cards lines

Eldense

Over 1.5
70.3%
Over 2.5
44.4%

Granada

Over 1.5
73.3%
Over 2.5
48.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Eldense's; Granada gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Eldense line Eldense Granada
-1.5 22.5% 77.5%
-0.5 38.3% 61.7%
+0.5 56.5% 43.5%
+1.5 73.3% 26.7%

Red card

Any red card15.3%
Eldense red card5.5%
Granada red card10.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 84.5% 15.5%
22.5 fouls 74.2% 25.8%
24.5 fouls 61.7% 38.3%
EldenseEldense

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Eldense at home and Granada away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GranadaGranada
Statistic
Eldense
Granada
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.4

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.8

Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
11.1%

Matches with card data
6
9
Red cards this season
·
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 74.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.0% for over 2.5 to 39.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.9%. On the card count, Granada are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 18.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Eldense over 1.5 cards sits at 70.3% and Granada at 73.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.3% (Eldense 5.5%, Granada 10.4%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

74.2%Over 3.5 cards
15.3%Any red card
43.5%Most cards: Granada
70.3%Eldense over 1.5 cards
73.3%Granada over 1.5 cards
74.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGranada are the pick to collect more cards at 43.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 56.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
EldenseEldense

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GranadaGranada
Statistic
Eldense
Granada
cards per game
·
1.9

fouls per game
12.3
12.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Eldense vs Granada?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 74.2% for Eldense vs Granada.
Will there be a red card in Eldense vs Granada?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Eldense vs Granada?
The model rates Granada to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónEldense fixtures and statsGranada fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.