AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
ExcelsiorExcelsiorLDLLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1113:30UK
TwenteTwenteWWDLW

Excelsior vs Twente cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined71.1%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined28.9%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards28.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Excelsior vs Twente. It tips Twente for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 50.9% 49.1%
3.5 cards 28.9% 71.1%
4.5 cards 13.9% 86.1%
5.5 cards 5.8% 94.2%

Who picks up more cards

Excelsior
34.6%
Level
25.7%
Twente
39.8%

Team cards lines

Excelsior

Over 1.5
37.3%
Over 2.5
14.3%

Twente

Over 1.5
41.2%
Over 2.5
17.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Excelsior's; Twente gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Excelsior line Excelsior Twente
-1.5 15.2% 84.8%
-0.5 34.6% 65.4%
+0.5 60.3% 39.8%
+1.5 81.3% 18.7%

Red card

Any red card10.3%
Excelsior red card2.8%
Twente red card7.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 47.8% 52.2%
22.5 fouls 32.7% 67.3%
24.5 fouls 20.4% 79.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Excelsior Robin Hensgens 2 2.0 1.0
Twente Allard Lindhout 2 1.0 0.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ExcelsiorExcelsior

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Excelsior at home and Twente away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TwenteTwente
Statistic
Excelsior
Twente
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.7

Yellow cards per game
1.4
0.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.4

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
0.0%

Matches with card data
4
8
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 1,676 matches we rated like this one (20–30%), Cards actually happened 36.9% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 28.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 50.9% for over 2.5 to 5.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. Head to head on cards, Twente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.8%, with a level count at 25.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Excelsior over 1.5 cards sits at 37.3% and Twente at 41.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.3% (Excelsior 2.8%, Twente 7.7%). Excelsior’s most frequent referee this season, Robin Hensgens, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

28.9%Over 3.5 cards
10.3%Any red card
39.8%Most cards: Twente
37.3%Excelsior over 1.5 cards
41.2%Twente over 1.5 cards
32.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 28.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherRobin Hensgens, Excelsior’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianTwente are the pick to collect more cards at 39.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
ExcelsiorExcelsior

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TwenteTwente
Statistic
Excelsior
Twente
cards per game
·
0.9

fouls per game
11.7
12.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Excelsior vs Twente?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 28.9% for Excelsior vs Twente.
Will there be a red card in Excelsior vs Twente?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Excelsior vs Twente?
The model rates Twente to pick up more cards at 39.8%, with a level count at 25.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisieExcelsior fixtures and statsTwente fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.