AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CeutaCeutaWDLLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:15UK
Sp GijonSp GijonLWWWL

Ceuta vs Sporting Gijon cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.9%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ceuta vs Sp Gijon. Slightly more cards are projected for Sp Gijon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.9% 12.1%
3.5 cards 74.1% 25.9%
4.5 cards 56.8% 43.2%
5.5 cards 39.2% 60.8%

Who picks up more cards

Ceuta
35.5%
Level
18.1%
Sp Gijon
46.4%

Team cards lines

Ceuta

Over 1.5
68.4%
Over 2.5
42.1%

Sp Gijon

Over 1.5
74.8%
Over 2.5
50.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ceuta's; Sp Gijon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Ceuta line Ceuta Sp Gijon
-1.5 20.3% 79.7%
-0.5 35.5% 64.5%
+0.5 53.6% 46.4%
+1.5 70.8% 29.2%

Red card

Any red card24.8%
Ceuta red card9.0%
Sp Gijon red card17.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 82.7% 17.3%
22.5 fouls 71.9% 28.2%
24.5 fouls 58.9% 41.1%
CeutaCeuta

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Ceuta at home and Sp Gijon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Sp GijonSp Gijon
Statistic
Ceuta
Sp Gijon
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
3.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
5.3
2.0

Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.7

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.7

Matches with card data
6
4
Red cards this season
2
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Cards per game: 0–6. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 74.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.9% for over 2.5 to 39.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.8%. Head to head on cards, Sp Gijon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 18.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Ceuta over 1.5 cards sits at 68.4% and Sp Gijon at 74.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.8% (Ceuta 9.0%, Sp Gijon 17.3%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

74.1%Over 3.5 cards
24.8%Any red card
46.4%Most cards: Sp Gijon
68.4%Ceuta over 1.5 cards
74.8%Sp Gijon over 1.5 cards
71.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.8%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianSp Gijon are the pick to collect more cards at 46.4%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 56.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CeutaCeuta

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Sp GijonSp Gijon
Statistic
Ceuta
Sp Gijon
fouls per game
13.1
11.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Ceuta vs Sp Gijon?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 74.1% for Ceuta vs Sp Gijon.
Will there be a red card in Ceuta vs Sp Gijon?
The model rates a red card for either side at 24.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ceuta vs Sp Gijon?
The model rates Sp Gijon to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónCeuta fixtures and statsSporting Gijon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.