Market guideOver 2.5 goals predictions today
The most liquid goals market, and the one bookmakers price hardest. Our value here is a calibrated number and the discipline to pass, not an edge.
Model probabilities and fair odds, not bookmaker offers.
Over 2.5 goals lands when a match produces three or more goals.
Matches we model this round207line 2.5 goals
Our hit rate on this market55.6%72,243 graded calls
Calibration error1.9pphow far our % sits from realityBest over 2.5 goals predictions this round
The strongest model calls grouped by probability. Lower risk means a higher model chance, not a guaranteed outcome.
Fair odds are calculated from the model probability, without a bookmaker margin.
Over 2.5 goals predictions by match
Ranked by model probability. Filter by league and risk; select a match for its full market analysis.
Fair odds are model prices, not bookmaker offers.
24 predictions · strongest of 207 modelled matches
| Match | Kick off | Model | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PSV EindhovenPSVWillem IIWILOver 2.5 goals Eredivisie17:45 UKModel 79.8%Fair odds 1.25 | 17:45 UK | 79.8% | 1.25 |   |
BrannBRAMoldeMOLOver 2.5 goals Eliteserien13:30 UKModel 71.0%Fair odds 1.41 | 13:30 UK | 71.0% | 1.41 | |
LeverkusenB04StuttgartVFBOver 2.5 goals Bundesliga14:30 UKModel 70.8%Fair odds 1.41 | 14:30 UK | 70.8% | 1.41 | |
CorvinulCORFC ArgesARGUnder 2.5 goals Liga I14:00 UKModel 70.0%Fair odds 1.43 | 14:00 UK | 70.0% | 1.43 | |
Lech PoznanLECWislaWISOver 2.5 goals Ekstraklasa16:30 UKModel 69.4%Fair odds 1.44 | 16:30 UK | 69.4% | 1.44 | |
| FeyenoordFEYFor SittardFOROver 2.5 goalsEredivisie15:30 UKModel 69.1%Fair odds 1.45 | 15:30 UK | 69.1% | 1.45 | |
| CambuurCAMGo Ahead EaglesGAEOver 2.5 goalsEredivisie20:00 UKModel 68.7%Fair odds 1.46 | 20:00 UK | 68.7% | 1.46 | |
BarcelonaBARAlavesALAOver 2.5 goals La Liga20:00 UKModel 68.6%Fair odds 1.46 | 20:00 UK | 68.6% | 1.46 | |
| Schalke 04S04RB LeipzigRBLOver 2.5 goalsBundesliga14:30 UKModel 68.3%Fair odds 1.46 | 14:30 UK | 68.3% | 1.46 | |
| Bayern MunichBAYDortmundDOROver 2.5 goalsBundesliga17:30 UKModel 68.1%Fair odds 1.47 | 17:30 UK | 68.1% | 1.47 | |
| GroningenGROSparta RotterdamSPAOver 2.5 goalsEredivisie15:45 UKModel 67.0%Fair odds 1.49 | 15:45 UK | 67.0% | 1.49 | |
FenerbahceFENGoztepGOZOver 2.5 goals Süper Lig16:00 UKModel 66.8%Fair odds 1.50 | 16:00 UK | 66.8% | 1.50 | |
| ValerengaVALTromsoTROOver 2.5 goalsEliteserien18:15 UKModel 66.3%Fair odds 1.51 | 18:15 UK | 66.3% | 1.51 | |
| GetafeGETSevillaSEVUnder 2.5 goalsLa Liga13:00 UKModel 66.2%Fair odds 1.51 | 13:00 UK | 66.2% | 1.51 | |
BenficaBENAlvercaALVOver 2.5 goals Primeira Liga20:15 UKModel 64.8%Fair odds 1.54 | 20:15 UK | 64.8% | 1.54 | |
| TelstarTELUtrechtUTROver 2.5 goalsEredivisie13:30 UKModel 64.5%Fair odds 1.55 | 13:30 UK | 64.5% | 1.55 | |
| M'gladbachMGLPaderbornPADOver 2.5 goalsBundesliga14:30 UKModel 64.5%Fair odds 1.55 | 14:30 UK | 64.5% | 1.55 | |
SonderjyskeSONFC CopenhagenCPHOver 2.5 goals Danish Superliga18:00 UKModel 63.9%Fair odds 1.57 | 18:00 UK | 63.9% | 1.57 | |
KarlsruheKARHeidenheimHEIOver 2.5 goals 2. Bundesliga19:30 UKModel 63.8%Fair odds 1.57 | 19:30 UK | 63.8% | 1.57 | |
BrommapojkarnaBROHackenHACOver 2.5 goals Allsvenskan18:00 UKModel 63.7%Fair odds 1.57 | 18:00 UK | 63.7% | 1.57 | |
VeneziaVENInterINTOver 2.5 goals Serie A17:30 UKModel 63.6%Fair odds 1.57 | 17:30 UK | 63.6% | 1.57 | |
| HeerenveenHEENijmegenNIJOver 2.5 goalsEredivisie17:45 UKModel 63.4%Fair odds 1.58 | 17:45 UK | 63.4% | 1.58 | |
| TrabzonsporTRAGaziantepGAZOver 2.5 goalsSüper Lig13:00 UKModel 63.3%Fair odds 1.58 | 13:00 UK | 63.3% | 1.58 | |
| Werder BremenSVWHoffenheimHOFOver 2.5 goalsBundesliga14:30 UKModel 63.3%Fair odds 1.58 | 14:30 UK | 63.3% | 1.58 | |
No predictions match these filters. Try another league or risk level.
Over 2.5 goals: model performance
Historical backtest, not the record of predictions published on this site. Each match uses only information available before kick-off.
The table compares model probability ranges with actual outcomes. Calls are graded on the selected side, including under selections.
Historical backtest · 72,243 graded calls
Predicted vs observed
| When we said | It happened | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 20.0% to 30.0% | 37.0% | 966 |
| 30.0% to 40.0% | 41.7% | 10,103 |
| 40.0% to 50.0% | 47.1% | 27,165 |
| 50.0% to 60.0% | 54.4% | 24,256 |
| 60.0% to 70.0% | 61.6% | 8,621 |
| 70.0% to 80.0% | 69.5% | 1,045 |
| 80.0% to 90.0% | 77.2% | 57 |
Recent backtest results
AI agents: over 2.5 goals
Agents track their own selections and prices. Agent prices are separate from the model fair odds above.
Paper trading only: no account, deposit or payout.
Paper trading · 3 agents · 4 selections
The survivor: never go bust, capital preservation before anything else.
- Leverkusen vs Stuttgartover 2.570.8%1.31
The goals hunter: backs Over 2.5 ONLY when the model leans clearly towards goals.
- FC Voluntari vs Farul Constantaover 2.559.2%1.76
- Lech Poznan vs Wislaover 2.569.4%1.49
The control group: a random pick per match, the zero-edge baseline.
- Hull vs Ipswichover 2.550.2%1.89
How we predict over 2.5 goals
We build a full score grid for every match from both sides expected goals, tempo and recent scoring, then read the total off that grid. The published number is calibrated against real out of sample results, so a 60 percent read has landed about 60 percent of the time.
The most liquid goals market, and the one bookmakers price hardest. Our value here is a calibrated number and the discipline to pass, not an edge.
Over 2.5 goals lands when a match produces three or more goals.
Calibration grade B: calibrated
See the full model record →Explore other prediction markets
Compare model probabilities across goals, both teams to score, corners, cards, shots and correct scores.
