AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
CharltonCharltonLDDLL
Tue, 3 Nov 20263/1119:45UK
BoltonBoltonWLWDL

Charlton vs Bolton cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Charlton vs Bolton. Slightly more cards are projected for Bolton for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.9% 30.1%
3.5 cards 48.7% 51.3%
4.5 cards 29.5% 70.5%
5.5 cards 15.7% 84.3%

Who picks up more cards

Charlton
35.1%
Level
21.8%
Bolton
43.1%

Team cards lines

Charlton

Over 1.5
50.8%
Over 2.5
24.4%

Bolton

Over 1.5
56.8%
Over 2.5
29.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Charlton's; Bolton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Charlton line Charlton Bolton
-1.5 17.6% 82.4%
-0.5 35.1% 64.9%
+0.5 56.9% 43.1%
+1.5 76.4% 23.6%

Red card

Any red card15.1%
Charlton red card7.0%
Bolton red card8.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 59.6% 40.4%
22.5 fouls 43.8% 56.2%
24.5 fouls 29.5% 70.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Charlton A Kitchen 2 3.5 2.0
Charlton T Reeves 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

CharltonCharlton

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Charlton at home and Bolton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BoltonBolton
Statistic
Charlton
Bolton
Yellow cards per game
2.1
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
1.2

Matches with card data
4
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 69.9% for over 2.5 to 15.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. Head to head on cards, Bolton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 21.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Charlton over 1.5 cards sits at 50.8% and Bolton at 56.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.1% (Charlton 7.0%, Bolton 8.7%). Charlton’s most frequent referee this season, A Kitchen, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

48.7%Over 3.5 cards
15.1%Any red card
43.1%Most cards: Bolton
50.8%Charlton over 1.5 cards
56.8%Bolton over 1.5 cards
43.8%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA Kitchen, Charlton’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBolton are the pick to collect more cards at 43.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
CharltonCharlton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BoltonBolton
Statistic
Charlton
Bolton
fouls per game
13.0
10.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Charlton vs Bolton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.7% for Charlton vs Bolton.
Will there be a red card in Charlton vs Bolton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Charlton vs Bolton?
The model rates Bolton to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Cards

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards predictionLincoln vs Birmingham cards predictionNorwich vs Watford cards predictionStoke vs Preston cards predictionBolton vs Bristol City cards predictionBurnley vs Portsmouth cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

ChampionshipCharlton fixtures and statsBolton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.