Ligue 1 predictions
Calibrated model probabilities for the Ligue 1 fixtures we currently model. We track 9 upcoming matches.
- 9Upcoming predictions
- 18Teams in league
- 55.0%Model avg Over 2.5
- 56.9%Model avg BTTS
Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions
Le HavreLEHParis SGPSG
- Home win
- 16.2%
- Draw
- 20.4%
- Away win
- 63.4%
NiceNICRennesREN
- Home win
- 35.2%
- Draw
- 23.6%
- Away win
- 41.3%
LilleLILLensLEN
- Home win
- 40.7%
- Draw
- 27.9%
- Away win
- 31.4%
TroyesTROLe MansLEM
- Home win
- 42.7%
- Draw
- 26.6%
- Away win
- 30.8%
StrasbourgSTRAuxerreAUX
- Home win
- 48.6%
- Draw
- 23.9%
- Away win
- 27.6%
LyonLYOAngersANG
- Home win
- 65.3%
- Draw
- 21.0%
- Away win
- 13.7%
Paris FCPARMonacoMON
- Home win
- 42.3%
- Draw
- 26.4%
- Away win
- 31.3%
MarseilleMARToulouseTOU
- Home win
- 48.5%
- Draw
- 23.9%
- Away win
- 27.6%
LorientLORBrestBRE
- Home win
- 42.8%
- Draw
- 28.2%
- Away win
- 29.0%
Ligue 1 score predictions
The most likely correct score in each match. Even the leading scoreline usually has a low probability.
Ligue 1 table and stats (2026/27)
Season 2026/27. 72 league matches played, through 2026-10-26.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
Per-game team stats (shots, corners, cards, xG) are on the statistics page.
Season match patterns
Over 2.5 goals
Share of matches
- Ligue 1
- 61%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Both teams scored
Share of matches
- Ligue 1
- 63%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Home wins
Share of matches
- Ligue 1
- 44%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Draws
Share of matches
- Ligue 1
- 26%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Away wins
Share of matches
- Ligue 1
- 29%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Ligue 1 top scorers and xG
Season 2026/27. Leading scorers in our published player data.
Stored match analysis
Historical or unresolved fixtures. Final scores are shown only when verified.
- PSG 2-0 Lyon, 26 Oct
- Rennes 3-0 Strasbourg, 25 Oct
- Marseille 4-3 Le Havre, 25 Oct
- Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans, 25 Oct
- Angers 0-0 Lorient, 25 Oct
- Toulouse 0-0 Troyes, 25 Oct
- Monaco 1-1 Lille, 25 Oct
- Lens 2-1 Paris FC, 24 Oct
- Brest 1-2 Nice, 23 Oct
- Lyon 2-1 Nice, 18 Oct
- Paris FC 4-3 Rennes, 18 Oct
- Lorient 1-0 Monaco, 18 Oct
- Le Havre 1-3 Auxerre, 18 Oct
- Angers 2-5 Marseille, 18 Oct
- Troyes 1-3 Lens, 17 Oct
- Lille 1-1 Brest, 17 Oct
- Strasbourg 1-3 PSG, 17 Oct
- Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse, 16 Oct
- Troyes 0-2 Marseille, 11 Oct
- Rennes 4-1 Auxerre, 11 Oct
- Nice 2-1 Strasbourg, 11 Oct
- PSG 3-1 Le Mans, 10 Oct
- Monaco 2-2 Toulouse, 10 Oct
- Lorient 1-0 Paris FC, 10 Oct
- Brest 5-1 Angers, 10 Oct
- Lille 1-0 Le Havre, 10 Oct
- Lens 2-1 Lyon, 9 Oct
Ligue 1 Super 6 style picks: six correct scores
Super 6 itself uses British matches. This is the same Super 6 style idea on the Ligue 1: the matches where our score earns the most expected points, 5 for the exact score and 2 for the right result.
- 1Lyon vs AngersAlso the most likely score · All scores2-011.2% exact1.64 exp. pts
- 2Le Havre vs Paris SGMost likely 1-1 (10.3%) · All scores1-29.9% exact1.57 exp. pts
- 3Strasbourg vs AuxerreMost likely 1-1 (11.3%) · All scores2-19.4% exact1.25 exp. pts
- 4Marseille vs ToulouseMost likely 1-1 (10.9%) · All scores2-19.4% exact1.25 exp. pts
- 5Lorient vs BrestMost likely 1-1 (13.0%) · All scores1-010.0% exact1.16 exp. pts
- 6Troyes vs Le MansMost likely 1-1 (12.5%) · All scores2-19.0% exact1.12 exp. pts
An exact score is always unlikely: the strongest one here has a 11.2% chance. All Premier League and EFL scores for the round are on our Super 6 predictions page.
Ligue 1 referees
Matches in the Ligue 1 since 2025/26, with career yellow cards per game from completed matches. We never publish referee appointments for upcoming matches unless an official source confirms them.
- Ruddy Buquet22 matches3.16
- Eric Wattellier22 matches2.83
- Willy Delajod22 matches3.09
- François Letexier22 matches4.23
- Jérôme Brisard21 matches4.00
- Clement Turpin21 matches3.05
- Jeremie Pignard21 matches4.05
- Benoît Bastien20 matches3.38
- Guillaume Paradis19 matches4.04
- Jeremy Stinat19 matches3.87
- Mathieu Vernice19 matches4.32
- Marc Bollengier19 matches4.52
Ligue 1 fixtures
Linked matches have a full prediction page. Schedule from our fixture feed, refreshed daily; kickoff times can move.
Showing 19 of 19 upcoming league fixtures.
- Fri 30 Oct 2026
- 18:00 UKLe HavreLEHParis SGPSG
- 18:00 UKNiceNICRennesREN
- 20:05 UKLilleLILLensLEN
- Sat 31 Oct 2026
- 19:45 UKTroyesTROLe MansLEM
- Sun 1 Nov 2026
- 14:00 UKStrasbourgSTRAuxerreAUX
- 16:15 UKLyonLYOAngersANG
- 16:15 UKParis FCPARMonacoMON
- 19:45 UKMarseilleMARToulouseTOU
- Mon 2 Nov 2026
- 19:45 UKLorientLORBrestBRE
- Fri 6 Nov 2026
- 19:45 UKToulouseTOUStrasbourgSTR
- Sat 7 Nov 2026
- 16:15 UKAuxerreAUXParis FCPAR
- 19:45 UKParis SGPSGTroyesTRO
- Sun 8 Nov 2026
- 14:00 UKRennesRENLilleLIL
- 16:15 UKAngersANGNiceNIC
- 16:15 UKBrestBRELyonLYO
- 16:15 UKLe HavreLEHLorientLOR
- 16:15 UKLe MansLEMMonacoMON
- 19:45 UKLensLENMarseilleMAR
- Fri 20 Nov 2026
- 19:45 UKTroyesTROLe HavreLEH
Frequently asked questions
How many Ligue 1 matches are predicted?
We currently model 9 upcoming fixtures across 18 teams. Each links to a full page with the calibrated probabilities behind it.
Are these Ligue 1 tips?
No. These are calibration graded model probabilities, not betting advice. Across these 9 matches the model averages 55.0% for Over 2.5 goals.
Who is top of the Ligue 1?
Paris SG lead the Ligue 1 (2026/27) with 17 points from 8 games, through 2026-10-26.
How many goals per game in the Ligue 1 this season?
The Ligue 1 is averaging 2.97 goals per match, with 61% of matches going over 2.5 goals across 72 matches played.
Calibration-graded model probabilities, not tips. See our public track record, including the misses.
