AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
KasimpasaKasimpasaWDLWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1116:00UK
BesiktasBesiktasWLWLW

Kasimpasa vs Besiktas cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined70.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined29.2%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards70.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kasimpasa vs Besiktas. The model leans toward Kasimpasa for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.9% 14.1%
3.5 cards 70.8% 29.2%
4.5 cards 52.6% 47.4%
5.5 cards 35.1% 64.9%

Who picks up more cards

Kasimpasa
44.6%
Level
18.7%
Besiktas
36.7%

Team cards lines

Kasimpasa

Over 1.5
71.6%
Over 2.5
46.1%

Besiktas

Over 1.5
66.8%
Over 2.5
40.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Kasimpasa's; Besiktas gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Kasimpasa line Kasimpasa Besiktas
-1.5 27.3% 72.7%
-0.5 44.6% 55.4%
+0.5 63.3% 36.7%
+1.5 79.1% 20.9%

Red card

Any red card20.7%
Kasimpasa red card14.3%
Besiktas red card7.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 89.0% 11.0%
22.5 fouls 79.9% 20.1%
24.5 fouls 67.8% 32.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Kasimpasa F. Tokail 2 3.5 2.0
Kasimpasa H. U. Meler 2 5.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

KasimpasaKasimpasa

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Kasimpasa at home and Besiktas away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BesiktasBesiktas
Statistic
Kasimpasa
Besiktas
Yellow cards per game
2.7
2.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.9
2.0

Matches with card data
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 70.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 85.9% for over 2.5 to 35.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Between the two sides, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 18.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards sits at 71.6% and Besiktas at 66.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.7% (Kasimpasa 14.3%, Besiktas 7.4%). Kasimpasa’s most frequent referee this season, F. Tokail, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

70.8%Over 3.5 cards
20.7%Any red card
44.6%Most cards: Kasimpasa
71.6%Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards
66.8%Besiktas over 1.5 cards
79.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 70.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherF. Tokail, Kasimpasa’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 20.7%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianKasimpasa are the pick to collect more cards at 44.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
KasimpasaKasimpasa

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BesiktasBesiktas
Statistic
Kasimpasa
Besiktas
fouls per game
15.3
13.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Kasimpasa vs Besiktas?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.8% for Kasimpasa vs Besiktas.
Will there be a red card in Kasimpasa vs Besiktas?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kasimpasa vs Besiktas?
The model rates Kasimpasa to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 18.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Süper Lig, Cards

Konyaspor vs Galatasaray cards predictionErzurumspor vs Corum cards predictionKocaelispor vs Rizespor cards predictionFenerbahce vs Goztep cards predictionAmedspor vs Eyupspor cards predictionBasaksehir vs Samsunspor cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Süper LigKasimpasa fixtures and statsBesiktas fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.