AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Segunda División
ValladolidValladolidWDWLL
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1117:30UK
LeganesLeganesLLLLD

Valladolid vs Leganes cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined79%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined21%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards79.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Valladolid vs Leganes. The model leans toward Leganes for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 90.7% 9.3%
3.5 cards 79.0% 21.0%
4.5 cards 63.1% 36.9%
5.5 cards 45.9% 54.1%

Who picks up more cards

Valladolid
34.2%
Level
17.3%
Leganes
48.5%

Team cards lines

Valladolid

Over 1.5
71.3%
Over 2.5
45.6%

Leganes

Over 1.5
79.0%
Over 2.5
56.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Valladolid's; Leganes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Valladolid line Valladolid Leganes
-1.5 19.8% 80.2%
-0.5 34.2% 65.8%
+0.5 51.5% 48.5%
+1.5 68.4% 31.6%

Red card

Any red card19.2%
Valladolid red card10.9%
Leganes red card9.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 88.8% 11.2%
22.5 fouls 80.3% 19.7%
24.5 fouls 69.3% 30.7%
ValladolidValladolid

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Valladolid at home and Leganes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LeganesLeganes
Statistic
Valladolid
Leganes
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.4
2.5

Yellow cards per game
3.3
2.8

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.8

Matches with more cards than the opponent
44.4%
55.6%

Matches with card data
9
9
Red cards this season
4
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 79.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 90.7% for over 2.5 to 45.9% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.9%. Between the two sides, Leganes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 17.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Valladolid over 1.5 cards sits at 71.3% and Leganes at 79.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.2% (Valladolid 10.9%, Leganes 9.3%). This season Valladolid have averaged 3.8 cards a game and Leganes 3.0.

79.0%Over 3.5 cards
19.2%Any red card
48.5%Most cards: Leganes
71.3%Valladolid over 1.5 cards
79.0%Leganes over 1.5 cards
80.3%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 79.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianLeganes are the pick to collect more cards at 48.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 5.5 cards: over sits at 45.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

AI experts on Cards

Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.

Expert Pick
corner_specialist v1.0 Over 3.5 cards
cards_referee v1.0 Over 3.5 cards

See all experts & their track records

ValladolidValladolid

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LeganesLeganes
Statistic
Valladolid
Leganes
cards per game
3.8
3.0

fouls per game
14.2
16.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Valladolid vs Leganes?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 79.0% for Valladolid vs Leganes.
Will there be a red card in Valladolid vs Leganes?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Valladolid vs Leganes?
The model rates Leganes to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 17.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónValladolid fixtures and statsLeganes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.