AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
KocaelisporKocaelisporLWLLW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1013:00UK
RizesporRizesporWDLLL

Kocaelispor vs Rizespor cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined58.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined41.4%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards58.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kocaelispor vs Rizespor. It tips Rizespor for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 77.6% 22.4%
3.5 cards 58.6% 41.4%
4.5 cards 39.1% 60.9%
5.5 cards 23.1% 76.9%

Who picks up more cards

Kocaelispor
34.1%
Level
20.2%
Rizespor
45.7%

Team cards lines

Kocaelispor

Over 1.5
56.6%
Over 2.5
29.6%

Rizespor

Over 1.5
64.6%
Over 2.5
37.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Kocaelispor's; Rizespor gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Kocaelispor line Kocaelispor Rizespor
-1.5 17.8% 82.2%
-0.5 34.1% 65.9%
+0.5 54.3% 45.7%
+1.5 73.2% 26.8%

Red card

Any red card10.0%
Kocaelispor red card2.3%
Rizespor red card7.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 88.8% 11.2%
22.5 fouls 79.6% 20.4%
24.5 fouls 67.4% 32.6%
KocaelisporKocaelispor

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Kocaelispor at home and Rizespor away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

RizesporRizespor
Statistic
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
Yellow cards per game
1.8
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.6
1.4

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 58.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.6% for over 2.5 to 23.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.6%. Between the two sides, Rizespor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Kocaelispor over 1.5 cards sits at 56.6% and Rizespor at 64.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.0% (Kocaelispor 2.3%, Rizespor 7.9%).

58.6%Over 3.5 cards
10.0%Any red card
45.7%Most cards: Rizespor
56.6%Kocaelispor over 1.5 cards
64.6%Rizespor over 1.5 cards
79.6%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 58.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianRizespor are the pick to collect more cards at 45.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 58.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
KocaelisporKocaelispor

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RizesporRizespor
Statistic
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
fouls per game
12.3
10.5

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Kocaelispor vs Rizespor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 58.6% for Kocaelispor vs Rizespor.
Will there be a red card in Kocaelispor vs Rizespor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kocaelispor vs Rizespor?
The model rates Rizespor to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Süper Lig, Cards

Konyaspor vs Galatasaray cards predictionErzurumspor vs Corum cards predictionFenerbahce vs Goztep cards predictionAmedspor vs Eyupspor cards predictionBasaksehir vs Samsunspor cards predictionTrabzonspor vs Gaziantep cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Süper LigKocaelispor fixtures and statsRizespor fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.