AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
MaritimoMaritimoLLDLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1118:00UK
Santa ClaraSanta ClaraWWDWL

Maritimo vs Santa Clara cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined73.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined26.4%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards73.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Maritimo vs Santa Clara. The model leans toward Santa Clara for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.6% 12.4%
3.5 cards 73.6% 26.4%
4.5 cards 56.1% 44.0%
5.5 cards 38.5% 61.5%

Who picks up more cards

Maritimo
33.9%
Level
18.1%
Santa Clara
48.0%

Team cards lines

Maritimo

Over 1.5
66.9%
Over 2.5
40.4%

Santa Clara

Over 1.5
75.2%
Over 2.5
50.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Maritimo's; Santa Clara gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Maritimo line Maritimo Santa Clara
-1.5 19.1% 80.9%
-0.5 33.9% 66.1%
+0.5 52.0% 48.0%
+1.5 69.5% 30.5%

Red card

Any red card11.7%
Maritimo red card7.6%
Santa Clara red card4.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 86.9% 13.1%
22.5 fouls 78.2% 21.8%
24.5 fouls 67.4% 32.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Maritimo Sergio Guelho 2 4.5 2.0
Santa Clara Vasilica Iancu 2 6.5 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

MaritimoMaritimo

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Maritimo at home and Santa Clara away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Santa ClaraSanta Clara
Statistic
Maritimo
Santa Clara
Cards per game at this venue
·
3.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.0

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.3

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
66.7%

Matches with card data
3
6
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 73.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.6% for over 2.5 to 38.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.1%. Between the two sides, Santa Clara are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 18.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Maritimo over 1.5 cards sits at 66.9% and Santa Clara at 75.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.7% (Maritimo 7.6%, Santa Clara 4.4%). Maritimo’s most frequent referee this season, Sergio Guelho, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

73.6%Over 3.5 cards
11.7%Any red card
48.0%Most cards: Santa Clara
66.9%Maritimo over 1.5 cards
75.2%Santa Clara over 1.5 cards
78.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 73.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherSergio Guelho, Maritimo’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSanta Clara are the pick to collect more cards at 48.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
MaritimoMaritimo

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Santa ClaraSanta Clara
Statistic
Maritimo
Santa Clara
cards per game
·
2.8

fouls per game
15.6
13.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 73.6% for Maritimo vs Santa Clara.
Will there be a red card in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?
The model rates Santa Clara to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Primeira LigaMaritimo fixtures and statsSanta Clara fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.