AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
AroucaAroucaDLDWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:30UK
NacionalNacionalLLLLW

Arouca vs Nacional cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined71.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined28.2%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards71.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Arouca vs Nacional. The model leans toward Arouca for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 86.5% 13.5%
3.5 cards 71.8% 28.2%
4.5 cards 53.9% 46.1%
5.5 cards 36.4% 63.6%

Who picks up more cards

Arouca
40.8%
Level
18.6%
Nacional
40.6%

Team cards lines

Arouca

Over 1.5
70.1%
Over 2.5
44.2%

Nacional

Over 1.5
70.0%
Over 2.5
44.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Arouca's; Nacional gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Arouca line Arouca Nacional
-1.5 24.3% 75.7%
-0.5 40.8% 59.2%
+0.5 59.4% 40.6%
+1.5 75.9% 24.1%

Red card

Any red card38.1%
Arouca red card19.4%
Nacional red card23.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.6% 22.4%
22.5 fouls 65.9% 34.1%
24.5 fouls 53.0% 47.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Nacional Carlos Macedo 2 3.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

AroucaArouca

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Arouca at home and Nacional away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NacionalNacional
Statistic
Arouca
Nacional
Cards per game at this venue
3.3
1.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.3
2.3

Yellow cards per game
2.6
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.2

Matches with more cards than the opponent
28.6%
28.6%

Matches with card data
7
7
Red cards this season
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 71.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.5% for over 2.5 to 36.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. On the card count, Arouca are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 18.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Arouca over 1.5 cards sits at 70.1% and Nacional at 70.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 38.1% (Arouca 19.4%, Nacional 23.2%). Nacional’s most frequent referee this season, Carlos Macedo, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Arouca have averaged 2.6 cards a game and Nacional 1.4.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

71.8%Over 3.5 cards
38.1%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Arouca
70.1%Arouca over 1.5 cards
70.0%Nacional over 1.5 cards
65.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 71.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherCarlos Macedo, Nacional’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 38.1%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianArouca are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
AroucaArouca

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NacionalNacional
Statistic
Arouca
Nacional
cards per game
2.6
1.4

fouls per game
11.1
11.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Arouca vs Nacional?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 71.8% for Arouca vs Nacional.
Will there be a red card in Arouca vs Nacional?
The model rates a red card for either side at 38.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Arouca vs Nacional?
The model rates Arouca to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Primeira Liga, Cards

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP cards predictionMoreirense vs Estrela cards predictionPorto vs Estoril cards predictionAcademico Viseu vs Rio Ave cards predictionMaritimo vs Santa Clara cards predictionSp Braga vs Famalicao cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaArouca fixtures and statsNacional fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.