AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
M'gladbachM'gladbachLLLLW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK10°C · Cloudy
PaderbornPaderbornLWLDW

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined64.1%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined35.9%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots64.1%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges M'gladbach.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, M'gladbach vs Paderborn
Model expects Shots On target
M'gladbach 14.6 5.6
Paderborn 12.5 4.4
Both teams 27.1 10.0

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 75.0% 25.0%
24.5 shots 64.1% 35.9%
26.5 shots 52.2% 47.8%
28.5 shots 40.4% 59.6%

Who takes more shots

M'gladbach
60.3%
Level
5.7%
Paderborn
34.0%

Team shots lines

M'gladbach

Over 10.5
79.7%
Over 12.5
65.3%
Over 14.5
49.4%

Paderborn

Over 10.5
64.4%
Over 12.5
46.7%
Over 14.5
30.8%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 83.9% 16.1%
7.5 shots on target 74.8% 25.2%
8.5 shots on target 64.0% 36.0%
9.5 shots on target 52.6% 47.4%

Who has more on target

M'gladbach
57.8%
Level
11.1%
Paderborn
31.2%

Team shots on target lines

M'gladbach

Over 3.5
77.4%
Over 4.5
62.8%
Over 5.5
47.5%

Paderborn

Over 3.5
61.4%
Over 4.5
43.8%
Over 5.5
28.6%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is M'gladbach's; Paderborn gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

M'gladbach line M'gladbach Paderborn
-4.5 36.4% 63.6%
-2.5 48.3% 51.7%
-0.5 60.3% 39.8%
+0.5 66.0% 34.0%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

M'gladbach player shots
M'gladbach 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Tim Kleindienst 53.5% 57.7% 2.06
Shuto Machino 32.0% 37.4% 2.31
Robin Hack 45.4% 45.6% 2.30
Wael Mohya 26.5% 33.5% 2.21
Hugo Bolin 49.0% 39.3% 2.67
Paderborn player shots
Paderborn 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Rayan Philippe 38.9% 41.9% 3.02
Santiago Castañeda 46.5% 50.8% 1.57
Marvin Pieringer 40.8% 29.7% 1.91
Raphael Obermair 36.7% 35.0% 1.34
Laurin Curda 36.9% 13.5% 1.33

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: M'gladbach in their home matches and Paderborn in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only M'gladbach's home matches and Paderborn's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: M'gladbach's last six home league matches and Paderborn's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

M'gladbachM'gladbach

Recorded 2026/27

PaderbornPaderborn
This season
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
Shots per game
15.3
14.0

Shots faced per game
17.6
16.9

Shots on target per game
4.7
3.4

On target faced per game
8.3
5.6

Matches with more shots
42.9%
28.6%

Matches
7
7
M'gladbach at home, Paderborn away
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
Shots per game
18.3
10.3

Shots faced per game
15.0
17.7

Shots on target per game
5.3
1.3

On target faced per game
8.7
7.7

Matches
3
3
By half, this season
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
1st-half shots
7.0
6.1

2nd-half shots
8.3
7.7

1st-half shots faced
7.9
7.6

2nd-half shots faced
9.9
9.6

1st-half shots on target
2.4
1.6

2nd-half shots on target
2.3
1.9

1st-half on target faced
3.4
2.1

2nd-half on target faced
4.9
3.4

Matches
7
7
By half, at home and away
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
1st-half shots
8.7
6.3

2nd-half shots
9.7
4.0

1st-half shots faced
7.0
7.7

2nd-half shots faced
8.0
10.3

1st-half shots on target
3.0
1.3

2nd-half shots on target
2.3
0.0

1st-half on target faced
3.3
2.3

2nd-half on target faced
5.3
5.3

Matches
3
3
Last six league matches
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
Shots per game
15.3
14.7

Shots faced per game
16.3
16.2

Shots on target per game
4.8
4.0

On target faced per game
7.8
5.8

1st-half shots
7.3
6.2

2nd-half shots
8.0
8.3

1st-half shots faced
7.5
7.2

2nd-half shots faced
9.0
9.2

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
Shots per game
14.2
12.3

Shots faced per game
13.2
15.2

Shots on target per game
5.0
2.7

On target faced per game
6.2
6.3

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 30.7 shots, 10.8 on target, 12.7 in the 1st half, 17.8 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 2,814 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 66.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 64.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.0% for over 22.5 to 40.4% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. On the shot count, M'gladbach are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.3%, with a level count at 5.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, M'gladbach over 12.5 shots sits at 65.3% and Paderborn at 46.7%. This season M'gladbach have averaged 15.3 shots a game and Paderborn 14.0. M'gladbach take 7.0 shots before half-time and 8.3 after, Paderborn 6.1 and 7.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

64.1%Over 24.5 shots
60.3%Most shots: M'gladbach
65.3%M'gladbach over 12.5 shots
46.7%Paderborn over 12.5 shots
74.8%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.1% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderM'gladbach are the pick to have more shots at 60.3%, the side controlling territory usually gets the attempts.
The Clock WatcherM'gladbach average 7.0 shots in the first half and 8.3 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 26.5 shots: over sits at 52.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in M'gladbach vs Paderborn?
The model expects about 14.6 shots for M'gladbach and 12.5 for Paderborn, 27.1 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 64.1%.
How many shots on target in M'gladbach vs Paderborn?
The model expects about 5.6 shots on target for M'gladbach and 4.4 for Paderborn, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 74.8%.
Which team will have more shots in M'gladbach vs Paderborn?
The model rates M'gladbach to take more shots at 60.3%.
How many shots do Paderborn take away from home?
Paderborn have taken 10.3 shots per game and faced 17.7 across 3 recorded away league matches this season.
Do M'gladbach shoot more in the first or second half?
M'gladbach average 7.0 shots before half-time and 8.3 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsPaderborn fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.