AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
Schalke 04Schalke 04WDLLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK10°C · Cloudy
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigWLWLW

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined63.4%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined36.6%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots63.4%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Schalke 04.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
Model expects Shots On target
Schalke 04 14.5 5.3
RB Leipzig 12.4 4.3
Both teams 26.9 9.7

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 74.4% 25.6%
24.5 shots 63.4% 36.6%
26.5 shots 51.4% 48.6%
28.5 shots 39.6% 60.4%

Who takes more shots

Schalke 04
59.7%
Level
5.8%
RB Leipzig
34.6%

Team shots lines

Schalke 04

Over 10.5
79.0%
Over 12.5
64.4%
Over 14.5
48.4%

RB Leipzig

Over 10.5
64.3%
Over 12.5
46.6%
Over 14.5
30.7%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 81.7% 18.3%
7.5 shots on target 71.9% 28.1%
8.5 shots on target 60.6% 39.4%
9.5 shots on target 48.9% 51.1%

Who has more on target

Schalke 04
55.4%
Level
11.5%
RB Leipzig
33.1%

Team shots on target lines

Schalke 04

Over 3.5
74.4%
Over 4.5
59.0%
Over 5.5
43.4%

RB Leipzig

Over 3.5
60.6%
Over 4.5
42.9%
Over 5.5
27.8%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Schalke 04's; RB Leipzig gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Schalke 04 line Schalke 04 RB Leipzig
-4.5 35.8% 64.2%
-2.5 47.7% 52.3%
-0.5 59.7% 40.3%
+0.5 65.5% 34.6%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

Schalke 04 player shots
Schalke 04 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Adil Aouchiche 46.6% 43.4% 1.96
Junior Adamu 31.2% 30.0% 1.84
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe 25.3% 22.7% 1.92
Soufiane El-Faouzi 26.3% 34.6% 1.08
Hee-Chan Hwang 11.8% 19.5% 1.22
RB Leipzig player shots
RB Leipzig 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Conrad Harder 43.3% 42.5% 4.07
Rômulo 60.1% 58.8% 2.56
Assan Ouédraogo 36.0% 43.2% 2.50
Tidiam Gomis 26.4% 26.2% 3.58
Christopher Nkunku 29.8% 41.3% 2.23

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Schalke 04 in their home matches and RB Leipzig in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Schalke 04's home matches and RB Leipzig's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: Schalke 04's last six home league matches and RB Leipzig's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

Schalke 04Schalke 04

Recorded 2026/27

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
This season
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
Shots per game
10.0
17.1

Shots faced per game
14.9
15.3

Shots on target per game
3.1
6.4

On target faced per game
6.0
6.9

Matches with more shots
14.3%
71.4%

Matches
7
7
Schalke 04 at home, RB Leipzig away
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
Shots per game
8.7
14.3

Shots faced per game
12.0
19.7

Shots on target per game
1.7
4.0

On target faced per game
4.0
10.0

Matches
3
3
By half, this season
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
1st-half shots
5.9
6.4

2nd-half shots
4.1
10.7

1st-half shots faced
5.3
6.3

2nd-half shots faced
9.7
9.0

1st-half shots on target
1.7
2.1

2nd-half shots on target
1.4
4.3

1st-half on target faced
2.7
3.0

2nd-half on target faced
3.3
3.9

Matches
7
7
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
1st-half shots
4.0
5.3

2nd-half shots
4.7
9.0

1st-half shots faced
4.7
7.7

2nd-half shots faced
7.3
12.0

1st-half shots on target
0.3
1.0

2nd-half shots on target
1.3
3.0

1st-half on target faced
2.7
4.3

2nd-half on target faced
1.3
5.7

Matches
3
3
Last six league matches
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
Shots per game
9.8
15.8

Shots faced per game
13.3
15.3

Shots on target per game
2.8
5.7

On target faced per game
4.8
7.3

1st-half shots
5.3
5.8

2nd-half shots
4.5
10.0

1st-half shots faced
5.2
6.5

2nd-half shots faced
8.3
8.8

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
Shots per game
12.0
15.0

Shots faced per game
10.7
18.2

Shots on target per game
4.3
5.2

On target faced per game
3.5
8.0

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 30.7 shots, 10.8 on target, 12.7 in the 1st half, 17.8 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 2,814 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 66.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 63.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 74.4% for over 22.5 to 39.6% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. Head to head on shots, Schalke 04 are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.7%, with a level count at 5.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Schalke 04 over 12.5 shots sits at 64.4% and RB Leipzig at 46.6%. This season Schalke 04 have averaged 10.0 shots a game and RB Leipzig 17.1. Schalke 04 take 5.9 shots before half-time and 4.1 after, RB Leipzig 6.4 and 10.7.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

63.4%Over 24.5 shots
59.7%Most shots: Schalke 04
64.4%Schalke 04 over 12.5 shots
46.6%RB Leipzig over 12.5 shots
71.9%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.4% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderSchalke 04 are the pick to have more shots at 59.7%, the side controlling territory usually gets the attempts.
The Clock WatcherSchalke 04 average 5.9 shots in the first half and 4.1 in the second, so they front-load their attempts.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 26.5 shots: over sits at 51.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects about 14.5 shots for Schalke 04 and 12.4 for RB Leipzig, 26.9 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 63.4%.
How many shots on target in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects about 5.3 shots on target for Schalke 04 and 4.3 for RB Leipzig, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 71.9%.
Which team will have more shots in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model rates Schalke 04 to take more shots at 59.7%.
How many shots do RB Leipzig take away from home?
RB Leipzig have taken 14.3 shots per game and faced 19.7 across 3 recorded away league matches this season.
Do Schalke 04 shoot more in the first or second half?
Schalke 04 average 5.9 shots before half-time and 4.1 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaSchalke 04 fixtures and statsRB Leipzig fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.