AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Casa PiaCasa PiaDLWLW
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1020:15UK
Sp LisbonSp LisbonWDDWL

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined57.1%
Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined42.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots42.9%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Sp Lisbon.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon
Model expects Shots On target
Casa Pia 11.7 3.5
Sp Lisbon 11.9 4.6
Both teams 23.7 8.1

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 55.1% 44.9%
24.5 shots 42.9% 57.1%
26.5 shots 31.7% 68.3%
28.5 shots 22.2% 77.8%

Who takes more shots

Casa Pia
45.5%
Level
6.3%
Sp Lisbon
48.2%

Team shots lines

Casa Pia

Over 10.5
57.5%
Over 12.5
40.2%
Over 14.5
25.7%

Sp Lisbon

Over 10.5
59.3%
Over 12.5
42.2%
Over 14.5
27.4%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 67.4% 32.7%
7.5 shots on target 54.3% 45.7%
8.5 shots on target 41.5% 58.5%
9.5 shots on target 30.0% 70.0%

Who has more on target

Casa Pia
29.5%
Level
12.6%
Sp Lisbon
58.0%

Team shots on target lines

Casa Pia

Over 3.5
44.7%
Over 4.5
27.3%
Over 5.5
15.1%

Sp Lisbon

Over 3.5
65.1%
Over 4.5
47.7%
Over 5.5
32.0%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Casa Pia's; Sp Lisbon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Casa Pia line Casa Pia Sp Lisbon
-2.5 33.5% 66.5%
-0.5 45.5% 54.5%
+0.5 51.8% 48.2%
+2.5 64.0% 36.0%

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Casa Pia in their home matches and Sp Lisbon in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Casa Pia's home matches and Sp Lisbon's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: Casa Pia's last six home league matches and Sp Lisbon's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

Casa PiaCasa Pia

Recorded 2026/27

Sp LisbonSp Lisbon
This season
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
Shots per game
9.7
12.9

Shots faced per game
15.8
9.3

Shots on target per game
2.8
5.5

On target faced per game
5.2
2.8

Matches with more shots
22.2%
62.5%

Matches
9
8
Casa Pia at home, Sp Lisbon away
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
Shots per game
9.3
13.5

Shots faced per game
14.3
8.5

Shots on target per game
2.3
5.8

On target faced per game
4.8
2.3

Matches
4
4
By half, this season
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
1st-half shots
4.7
5.9

2nd-half shots
5.0
7.0

1st-half shots faced
6.8
3.1

2nd-half shots faced
9.0
6.1

1st-half shots on target
1.0 (8)
2.6

2nd-half shots on target
1.9 (8)
2.9

1st-half on target faced
2.1 (8)
0.6

2nd-half on target faced
3.3 (8)
2.1

Matches
9
8
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
1st-half shots
4.3
5.5

2nd-half shots
5.0
8.0

1st-half shots faced
6.3
2.3

2nd-half shots faced
8.0
6.3

1st-half shots on target
1.0
2.5

2nd-half shots on target
1.3
3.3

1st-half on target faced
2.5
0.3

2nd-half on target faced
2.3
2.0

Matches
4
4
Last six league matches
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
Shots per game
10.3
16.0

Shots faced per game
16.3
8.8

Shots on target per game
3.2
5.0

On target faced per game
5.2
2.7

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
Shots per game
10.2
15.0

Shots faced per game
12.0
9.7

Shots on target per game
2.8
6.0

On target faced per game
4.5
2.8

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 24.7 shots, 8.2 on target, 11.7 in the 1st half, 13.0 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 17,005 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.3% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 42.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 55.1% for over 22.5 to 22.2% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Head to head on shots, Sp Lisbon are the model’s pick to have more shots at 48.2%, with a level count at 6.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Casa Pia over 12.5 shots sits at 40.2% and Sp Lisbon at 42.2%. This season Casa Pia have averaged 9.7 shots a game and Sp Lisbon 12.9. Casa Pia take 4.7 shots before half-time and 5.0 after, Sp Lisbon 5.9 and 7.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

42.9%Over 24.5 shots
48.2%Most shots: Sp Lisbon
40.2%Casa Pia over 12.5 shots
42.2%Sp Lisbon over 12.5 shots
54.3%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 42.9% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderSp Lisbon are the pick to have more shots at 48.2%, volume and pressure move together.
The Clock WatcherCasa Pia average 4.7 shots in the first half and 5.0 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 22.5 shots: over sits at 55.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The model expects about 11.7 shots for Casa Pia and 11.9 for Sp Lisbon, 23.7 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 42.9%.
How many shots on target in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The model expects about 3.5 shots on target for Casa Pia and 4.6 for Sp Lisbon, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 54.3%.
Which team will have more shots in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The model rates Sp Lisbon to take more shots at 48.2%.
How many shots do Sp Lisbon take away from home?
Sp Lisbon have taken 13.5 shots per game and faced 8.5 across 4 recorded away league matches this season.
Do Casa Pia shoot more in the first or second half?
Casa Pia average 4.7 shots before half-time and 5.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.