Market guideShots and shots on target predictions today
Almost no free source prices shots, so we publish our own fair price and say so. Never a bookmaker offer.
Model probabilities and fair odds, not bookmaker offers.
Shots measure how open a game is, before finishing gets involved.
Matches we model this round161line 24.5 shots
Our hit rate on this market58.7%50,938 graded calls
Calibration error3.7pphow far our % sits from realityBest shots predictions this round
The strongest model calls grouped by probability. Lower risk means a higher model chance, not a guaranteed outcome.
Fair odds are calculated from the model probability, without a bookmaker margin.
Shots predictions by match
Ranked by model probability. Filter by league and risk; select a match for its full market analysis.
Fair odds are model prices, not bookmaker offers.
24 predictions · strongest of 161 modelled matches
| Match | Kick off | Model | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
WolfsburgWOBOsnabruckOSNOver 24.5 shots 2. Bundesliga12:00 UKModel 70.5%Fair odds 1.42 | 12:00 UK | 70.5% | 1.42 |   |
| KarlsruheKARHeidenheimHEIOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga19:30 UKModel 69.6%Fair odds 1.44 | 19:30 UK | 69.6% | 1.44 | |
| HannoverH96DresdenDREOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga12:30 UKModel 69.0%Fair odds 1.45 | 12:30 UK | 69.0% | 1.45 | |
| CottbusCOTBochumBOCOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga17:30 UKModel 68.7%Fair odds 1.45 | 17:30 UK | 68.7% | 1.45 | |
| DarmstadtDARMagdeburgMAGOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga12:00 UKModel 68.0%Fair odds 1.47 | 12:00 UK | 68.0% | 1.47 | |
| KaiserslauternKAIHerthaHEROver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga12:00 UKModel 67.9%Fair odds 1.47 | 12:00 UK | 67.9% | 1.47 | |
LeverkusenB04StuttgartVFBOver 24.5 shots Bundesliga14:30 UKModel 67.1%Fair odds 1.49 | 14:30 UK | 67.1% | 1.49 | |
PSV EindhovenPSVWillem IIWILOver 24.5 shots Eredivisie17:45 UKModel 67.1%Fair odds 1.49 | 17:45 UK | 67.1% | 1.49 | |
| CambuurCAMGo Ahead EaglesGAEOver 24.5 shotsEredivisie20:00 UKModel 67.0%Fair odds 1.49 | 20:00 UK | 67.0% | 1.49 | |
| St PauliSTPNurnbergFCNOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga12:30 UKModel 66.6%Fair odds 1.50 | 12:30 UK | 66.6% | 1.50 | |
| ElversbergELVMainzM05Over 24.5 shotsBundesliga19:30 UKModel 65.7%Fair odds 1.52 | 19:30 UK | 65.7% | 1.52 | |
| GroningenGROSparta RotterdamSPAOver 24.5 shotsEredivisie15:45 UKModel 65.2%Fair odds 1.53 | 15:45 UK | 65.2% | 1.53 | |
| AugsburgAUGFreiburgFREOver 24.5 shotsBundesliga14:30 UKModel 65.0%Fair odds 1.54 | 14:30 UK | 65.0% | 1.54 | |
| ZwolleZWODen HaagDENOver 24.5 shotsEredivisie11:15 UKModel 64.9%Fair odds 1.54 | 11:15 UK | 64.9% | 1.54 | |
| TelstarTELUtrechtUTROver 24.5 shotsEredivisie13:30 UKModel 64.8%Fair odds 1.54 | 13:30 UK | 64.8% | 1.54 | |
| AjaxAJAAZ AlkmaarAZAOver 24.5 shotsEredivisie20:00 UKModel 64.7%Fair odds 1.54 | 20:00 UK | 64.7% | 1.54 | |
| Greuther FurthGREHolstein KielHOLOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga12:30 UKModel 64.3%Fair odds 1.55 | 12:30 UK | 64.3% | 1.55 | |
| FeyenoordFEYFor SittardFOROver 24.5 shotsEredivisie15:30 UKModel 64.3%Fair odds 1.56 | 15:30 UK | 64.3% | 1.56 | |
| BielefeldBIEBraunschweigBRAOver 24.5 shots2. Bundesliga17:30 UKModel 64.1%Fair odds 1.56 | 17:30 UK | 64.1% | 1.56 | |
| M'gladbachMGLPaderbornPADOver 24.5 shotsBundesliga14:30 UKModel 64.1%Fair odds 1.56 | 14:30 UK | 64.1% | 1.56 | |
| ExcelsiorEXCTwenteTWEOver 24.5 shotsEredivisie13:30 UKModel 63.9%Fair odds 1.57 | 13:30 UK | 63.9% | 1.57 | |
| Bayern MunichBAYDortmundDOROver 24.5 shotsBundesliga17:30 UKModel 63.6%Fair odds 1.57 | 17:30 UK | 63.6% | 1.57 | |
| HeerenveenHEENijmegenNIJOver 24.5 shotsEredivisie17:45 UKModel 63.4%Fair odds 1.58 | 17:45 UK | 63.4% | 1.58 | |
| Schalke 04S04RB LeipzigRBLOver 24.5 shotsBundesliga14:30 UKModel 63.4%Fair odds 1.58 | 14:30 UK | 63.4% | 1.58 | |
No predictions match these filters. Try another league or risk level.
Shots: model performance
Historical backtest, not the record of predictions published on this site. Each match uses only information available before kick-off.
The table compares model probability ranges with actual outcomes. Calls are graded on the selected side, including under selections.
Historical backtest · 50,938 graded calls
Predicted vs observed
| When we said | It happened | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% to 10.0% | 23.8% | 1,318 |
| 10.0% to 20.0% | 28.3% | 1,539 |
| 20.0% to 30.0% | 31.1% | 4,090 |
| 30.0% to 40.0% | 39.6% | 11,059 |
| 40.0% to 50.0% | 47.3% | 17,005 |
| 50.0% to 60.0% | 57.0% | 13,109 |
| 60.0% to 70.0% | 66.0% | 2,814 |
Recent backtest results
AI agents: shots
Agents track their own selections and prices. Agent prices are separate from the model fair odds above.
Paper trading only: no account, deposit or payout.
Paper trading · 2 agents · 8 selections
The shots-on-target reader: SoT totals on fair-odds paper, measuring calibration, not edge.
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem IIsot over 6.588.2%1.13
- Leverkusen vs Stuttgartsot over 6.586.9%1.15
- Karlsruhe vs Heidenheimsot over 6.586.4%1.16
- Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eaglessot over 6.586.4%1.16
The dominance reader: which side wins the count on corners, shots and cards, on fair-odds paper.
- Bayern Munich vs Dortmundsot most home70.8%1.41
- Barcelona vs Alavessot most home69.6%1.44
- Villarreal vs Espanolsot most home69.5%1.44
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem IIsot most home66.0%1.51
How we predict shots
Shot volume is far more stable week to week than goals, because it does not depend on whether the chances went in. We model the match total from both sides recent shot counts, for and against.
Almost no free source prices shots, so we publish our own fair price and say so. Never a bookmaker offer.
Shots measure how open a game is, before finishing gets involved.
Calibration grade C: range, not a point
See the full model record →Explore other prediction markets
Compare model probabilities across goals, both teams to score, corners, cards, shots and correct scores.
