Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 48.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.0% for over 2.5 to 15.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.8%. On the card count, Manchester City are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 21.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.8% | 84.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.1%
23.0%
58.4%
31.3%
Card handicap
| Liverpool line | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| +1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 23.3% | 76.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Liverpool cards per game13.0Liverpool fouls per game1.4Manchester City cards per game10.6Manchester City fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Liverpool vs Manchester City. Slightly more cards are projected for Manchester City for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
48.8%Over 3.5 cards8.6%Any red card49.1%Liverpool over 1.5 cards58.4%Manchester City over 1.5 cards37.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Liverpool over 1.5 cards sits at 49.1% and Manchester City at 58.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.6% (Liverpool 2.9%, Manchester City 5.9%). This season Liverpool have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Manchester City 1.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.8% for Liverpool vs Manchester City.
Will there be a red card in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates Manchester City to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
