Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Bournemouth Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 63.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.2% for over 2.5 to 27.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. Head to head on cards, Bournemouth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.2%, with a level count at 18.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.9%
28.1%
71.9%
46.4%
Card handicap
| Chelsea line | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| -0.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| +0.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| +1.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.5% | 61.5% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | J Gillett | 2 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Chelsea cards per game8.6Chelsea fouls per game2.8Bournemouth cards per game12.0Bournemouth fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chelsea vs Bournemouth. It tips Bournemouth for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
63.6%Over 3.5 cards17.8%Any red card54.9%Chelsea over 1.5 cards71.9%Bournemouth over 1.5 cards54.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Chelsea over 1.5 cards sits at 54.9% and Bournemouth at 71.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.8% (Chelsea 13.0%, Bournemouth 5.5%). Bournemouth’s most frequent referee this season, J Gillett, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Chelsea have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Bournemouth 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.6% for Chelsea vs Bournemouth.
Will there be a red card in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates Bournemouth to pick up more cards at 53.2%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
