Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 53.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.9% for over 7.5 to 25.1% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. Head to head on corners, Liverpool are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.9%, with a level count at 9.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.1% | 74.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.1%
57.3%
42.7%
68.5%
53.0%
38.4%
Corner handicap
| Liverpool line | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| -0.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +1.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Liverpool corners won per game4.4Liverpool corners conceded per game6.2Manchester City corners won per game4.2Manchester City corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Liverpool.
In-depth analysis
56.3%Over 9.5 corners57.3%Liverpool over 4.5 corners53.0%Manchester City over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Liverpool over 4.5 corners sits at 57.3% and Manchester City at 53.0%. This season Liverpool have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Manchester City 6.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 56.3% for Liverpool vs Manchester City.
Which team will win the corner count in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates Liverpool to win the corner count at 47.9%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How many corners do Liverpool and Manchester City average this season?
Liverpool have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Manchester City 6.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
