Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Brentford Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.9% for over 2.5 to 20.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. On the card count, Brentford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.3%, with a level count at 20.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.2% | 79.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.7%
22.7%
66.4%
39.8%
Card handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.2% | 86.9% |
| -0.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| +0.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| +1.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.2% | 74.8% |
This season (2026/27)
2.2Aston Villa cards per game11.4Aston Villa fouls per game2.2Brentford cards per game14.4Brentford fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Aston Villa vs Brentford. Slightly more cards are projected for Brentford for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
55.0%Over 3.5 cards3.3%Any red card48.7%Aston Villa over 1.5 cards66.4%Brentford over 1.5 cards39.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Aston Villa over 1.5 cards sits at 48.7% and Brentford at 66.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 3.3% (Aston Villa 2.5%, Brentford 0.8%). This season Aston Villa have averaged 2.2 cards a game and Brentford 2.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.0% for Aston Villa vs Brentford.
Will there be a red card in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates a red card for either side at 3.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates Brentford to pick up more cards at 52.3%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
