Premier League
Ipswich vs 
Fulham Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.4% for over 2.5 to 15.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.1%. Between the two sides, Fulham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 21.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.3% | 84.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.0%
19.7%
60.9%
33.9%
Card handicap
| Ipswich line | Ipswich | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.2% | 86.8% |
| -0.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| +0.5 | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| +1.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.8% | 78.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Ipswich cards per game11.6Ipswich fouls per game1.6Fulham cards per game10.0Fulham fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ipswich vs Fulham. The model leans toward Fulham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.1%Over 3.5 cards20.4%Any red card45.0%Ipswich over 1.5 cards60.9%Fulham over 1.5 cards35.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Ipswich over 1.5 cards sits at 45.0% and Fulham at 60.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.4% (Ipswich 14.4%, Fulham 7.0%). This season Ipswich have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Fulham 1.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ipswich vs Fulham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.1% for Ipswich vs Fulham.
Will there be a red card in Ipswich vs Fulham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ipswich vs Fulham?
The model rates Fulham to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
