Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 66.0% for over 22.5 to 32.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Between the two sides, Liverpool are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.4%, with a level count at 5.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 32.7% | 67.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.4%
56.1%
40.9%
59.5%
42.8%
28.3%
Shot handicap
| Liverpool line | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.6% | 66.5% |
| -2.5 | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| -0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| +0.5 | 62.1% | 38.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.1% | 62.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
6.6 / 8.6
6.8 / 7.0
This season (2026/27)
15.2Liverpool shots per game11.6Liverpool shots faced per game6.6Liverpool first-half shots8.6Liverpool second-half shots13.6Manchester City shots per game11.8Manchester City shots faced per game6.8Manchester City first-half shots7.0Manchester City second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Liverpool.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
54.7%Over 24.5 shots56.1%Liverpool over 12.5 shots42.8%Manchester City over 12.5 shots60.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Liverpool over 12.5 shots sits at 56.1% and Manchester City at 42.8%. This season Liverpool have averaged 15.2 shots a game and Manchester City 13.6. Liverpool take 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.6 after, Manchester City 6.8 and 7.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 54.7% for Liverpool vs Manchester City.
Which team will have more shots in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates Liverpool to take more shots at 56.4%.
Do Liverpool shoot more in the first or second half?
Liverpool average 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.6 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
