Premier League
Manchester United vs 
Tottenham Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 56.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.9% for over 2.5 to 21.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.2%. On the card count, Tottenham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.9%, with a level count at 19.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.9% | 24.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.1% | 78.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.0%
23.7%
66.9%
40.3%
Card handicap
| Manchester United line | Manchester United | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| -0.5 | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| +0.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| +1.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.6% | 68.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Manchester United cards per game9.8Manchester United fouls per game1.0Tottenham cards per game13.2Tottenham fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Manchester United vs Tottenham. Slightly more cards are projected for Tottenham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
56.2%Over 3.5 cards15.2%Any red card50.0%Manchester United over 1.5 cards66.9%Tottenham over 1.5 cards46.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Manchester United over 1.5 cards sits at 50.0% and Tottenham at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.2% (Manchester United 5.0%, Tottenham 10.7%). This season Manchester United have averaged 1.2 cards a game and Tottenham 1.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Manchester United vs Tottenham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.2% for Manchester United vs Tottenham.
Will there be a red card in Manchester United vs Tottenham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Manchester United vs Tottenham?
The model rates Tottenham to pick up more cards at 51.9%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
