Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87Liverpool xG created/game
1.40Liverpool xG conceded/game2.07Manchester City xG created/game1.60Manchester City xG conceded/gameRecent xG created & conceded (per game)
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
1.87
1.40
2.07
1.60
Liverpool have created 1.87 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Manchester City have created 2.07 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
60.3%Both Teams to Score57.1%Over 2.5 goalsMatch outlook
The model leans Manchester City to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 · 1 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
