Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 57.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Liverpool have averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Manchester City 2.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.1% for over 2.5 and 80.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Liverpool have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Manchester City in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.3% | 5.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 42.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 65.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.2% | 91.9% |
Team goal lines
75.6%
41.3%
17.0%
79.0%
46.3%
20.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.6% | 88.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.4% | 16.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.7% | 73.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Liverpool goals scored per game0.8Liverpool goals conceded per game40.0%Liverpool Over 2.5 rate0.4Liverpool 1st-half goals per game2.6Manchester City goals scored per game1.0Manchester City goals conceded per game60.0%Manchester City Over 2.5 rate1.0Manchester City 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
60.3%Both Teams to Score57.1%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 57.1% for three or more goals and 80.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Manchester City favoured at 42.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Manchester City to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 · 1 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 57.1% for Liverpool vs Manchester City.
Will there be a first-half goal in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 69.2%.
How often have Liverpool gone over 2.5 recently?
Liverpool have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Manchester City in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
