Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Everton42.9%
Win probability · fair 2.33
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.6%Fair 1.38
Draw or EvertonLikely70.9%Fair 1.41
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.7%Fair 1.65
Model read
▾
Hull versus Everton on 11 October 2026 tilts towards Everton in our numbers (43%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • On the availability front, Everton have Nørgaard ruled out, Patterson ruled out, Aznou ruled out, Röhl ruled out. • Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 1 wins for Hull, 2 draws and 1 for Everton, averaging 3.0 goals a game. The run in: Hull arrive W2 D2 L2, Everton W2 D3 L1. For shots markets, Robinio Vaz is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Hull are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals46.5%@ 2.15
Everton win42.9%@ 2.33
Over 10.5 corners40.9%@ 2.44
Medium risk
Hull or draw57.1%@ 1.75
Under 2.5 goals53.5%@ 1.87
Both teams to score51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.58
0-1 correct score10.5%@ 9.55
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.35
Model vs market
Hull
29.1%
Draw
28.0%
Everton
42.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 2.5Close call46.5%Fair 2.15
BTTS · YesClose call51.7%Fair 1.93
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.7%Fair 1.65
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.6%Fair 1.98
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.9%Fair 2.44
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.1%Fair 3.12
Most cornersHull52.6%Everton37.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.4%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.0%Fair 1.85
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely42.6%Fair 2.35
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely32.0%Fair 3.13
Recent shot volume
Hull11.8 taken14.7 faced
Everton14.7 taken15.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Hull (5 games)
3.8 / 8.0
Everton (5 games)
6.6 / 9.4
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.6%2.546.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
HullWWDDL
EvertonWDDDW
Last 4 meetings: Hull 1 · 2 draws · Everton 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Robinio VazHull · key player
To score15.4%6.49
1+ on target23.4%4.27
2+ shots9.0%11.11
Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.74
Carlos AlcarazEverton · key player
To score5.4%18.52
1+ on target36.9%2.71
2+ shots37.2%2.69
Shots/90 3.02SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.13
Mohamed Ali-ChoHull · in form
To score10.9%9.17
1+ on target38.9%2.57
2+ shots37.2%2.69
Shots/90 1.92SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.17
Thierno BarryEverton · in form
To score23.9%4.18
1+ on target41.7%2.40
2+ shots48.2%2.07
Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.41
Oliver McBurnieHull · in form
To score8.8%11.36
1+ on target30.3%3.30
2+ shots26.5%3.77
Shots/90 1.64SoT/90 0.59Goals/90 0.15
Iliman NdiayeEverton · in form
To score19.0%5.26
1+ on target44.9%2.23
2+ shots35.4%2.82
Shots/90 1.36SoT/90 0.65Goals/90 0.23
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Hull win3.35
Draw3.60
Everton win2.36
Both teams to score1.93
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.15
Over 3.5 goals3.99
Hull most3.35
Everton most2.36
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.44
Hull most1.89
Everton most2.69
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.98
Over 4.5 cards3.21
Over 5.5 cards5.91
Hull most2.82
Everton most2.33
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.18
Over 9.5 SoT2.89
Hull most1.94
Everton most2.77
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.85
Over 26.5 shots2.35
Over 28.5 shots3.13
Hull most1.65
Everton most2.96
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.94
Over 22.5 fouls2.83
Over 24.5 fouls4.57
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
NørgaardEvertonOut0% to play
PattersonEvertonOut0% to play
AznouEvertonOut0% to play
RöhlEvertonOut0% to play
BetoEvertonOut0% to play
Jack Grealish, Carlos Alcaraz, Tyrique GeorgeEvertonOut
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
BetoEverton12.7%23.5 xG+xA in 3,164 min
Tyrique GeorgeEverton2.5%4.7 xG+xA in 809 min
Merlin RöhlEverton2.0%3.7 xG+xA in 1,758 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.4%
Over 24.5
54.0%
Over 26.5
42.6%
Over 28.5
31.9%
Most: Hull
60.7%
Most: Everton
33.8%
Hull Over 13.2
50.9%
Everton Over 13.2
31.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.9%
Over 7.5
57.9%
Over 8.5
45.8%
Over 9.5
34.6%
Most: Hull
51.7%
Most: Everton
36.1%
Hull Over 4.2
46.1%
Everton Over 4.2
34.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
71.4%
Over 3.5
50.5%
Over 4.5
31.2%
Most: Hull
35.5%
Most: Everton
43.0%
Hull Over 1.8
52.3%
Everton Over 1.8
57.8%
Hull: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Robinio Vaz
2.21
1.18
0.74
23.4%
9.0%
15.4%
Mohamed Ali-Cho
1.92
0.73
0.17
38.9%
37.2%
10.9%
Oliver McBurnie
1.64
0.59
0.15
30.3%
26.5%
8.8%
Nobel Mendy
0.61
0.25
0.12
18.4%
8.9%
9.3%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
0.63
0.17
0.06
12.4%
8.8%
4.6%
Everton: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Carlos Alcaraz
3.02
1.07
0.13
36.9%
37.2%
5.4%
Thierno Barry
2.43
0.81
0.41
41.7%
48.2%
23.9%
Iliman Ndiaye
1.36
0.65
0.23
44.9%
35.4%
19.0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
1.58
0.52
0.24
34.0%
36.0%
17.4%
Brennan Johnson
1.57
0.48
0.29
26.0%
25.8%
16.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Hull clean sheet
24.6%
Everton clean sheet
32.1%
Hull win to nil
16.1%
Everton win to nil
23.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
29.8%
draw
27.7%
away
42.4%
double_chance
1X
57.6%
12
72.3%
X2
70.2%
dnb
home
41.3%
away
58.7%
btts
yes
51.7%
no
48.3%
clean_sheet
home
24.6%
away
32.2%
win_to_nil
home
16.1%
away
23.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.7%
home_by_2
8.4%
home_by_3plus
3.8%
away_by_1
22.0%
away_by_2
12.8%
away_by_3plus
7.7%
correct_score
0-0
8.6%
0-1
10.5%
0-2
7.8%
0-3
3.6%
0-4
1.3%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
8.4%
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.8%
1-3
4.1%
1-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.1%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
1.9%
3-1
2.7%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
4-1
0.8%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.5%
under_0.5
8.6%
over_1.5
72.6%
under_1.5
27.4%
over_2.5
46.6%
under_2.5
53.4%
over_3.5
25.0%
under_3.5
75.0%
over_4.5
11.4%
under_4.5
88.6%
over_5.5
4.5%
under_5.5
95.5%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
67.8%
under_0.5
32.2%
over_1.5
31.4%
under_1.5
68.6%
over_2.5
10.7%
under_2.5
89.3%
team_away
over_0.5
75.4%
under_0.5
24.6%
over_1.5
40.9%
under_1.5
59.1%
over_2.5
16.7%
under_2.5
83.3%
most
home
29.8%
draw
27.7%
away
42.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
3.8%
away_+2.5
96.2%
home_-1.5
12.2%
away_+1.5
87.8%
home_-0.5
29.8%
away_+0.5
70.2%
home_+0.5
57.6%
away_-0.5
42.4%
home_+1.5
79.5%
away_-1.5
20.5%
home_+2.5
92.3%
away_-2.5
7.7%
total_exact
exact_0
8.6%
exact_1
18.8%
exact_2
26.1%
exact_3
21.5%
exact_4
13.7%
exact_5
6.9%
exact_6
2.9%
exact_7plus
1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.4%
draw
44.1%
away
21.6%
total
over_0.5
66.3%
under_0.5
33.7%
over_1.5
29.6%
under_1.5
70.4%
over_2.5
9.7%
under_2.5
90.3%
btts
yes
17.0%
no
83.0%
total_exact
exact_0
33.7%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.9%
exact_3
7.2%
exact_4plus
2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
32.0%
draw
44.3%
away
23.7%
total
over_0.5
66.2%
under_0.5
33.8%
over_1.5
29.5%
under_1.5
70.5%
over_2.5
9.7%
under_2.5
90.3%
btts
yes
17.3%
no
82.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
28.1%
H/D
5.0%
H/A
1.3%
D/H
14.1%
D/D
19.5%
D/A
10.4%
A/H
1.5%
A/D
4.3%
A/A
15.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
75.0%
under_7.5
25.0%
over_8.5
64.1%
under_8.5
35.9%
over_9.5
52.4%
under_9.5
47.6%
over_10.5
41.0%
under_10.5
59.0%
over_11.5
30.7%
under_11.5
69.3%
over_12.5
22.0%
under_12.5
78.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.1%
under_3.5
26.9%
over_4.5
58.5%
under_4.5
41.5%
over_5.5
43.9%
under_5.5
56.1%
team_away
over_3.5
62.8%
under_3.5
37.2%
over_4.5
46.5%
under_4.5
53.5%
over_5.5
32.1%
under_5.5
67.9%
most
home
52.8%
draw
10.0%
away
37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.4%
away_+3.5
75.6%
home_-1.5
42.6%
away_+1.5
57.4%
home_-0.5
52.8%
away_+0.5
47.2%
home_+0.5
62.8%
away_-0.5
37.2%
home_+1.5
72.0%
away_-1.5
28.0%
home_+3.5
86.3%
away_-3.5
13.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.4%
under_22.5
34.6%
over_24.5
54.0%
under_24.5
46.0%
over_26.5
42.6%
under_26.5
57.4%
over_28.5
32.0%
under_28.5
68.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
73.4%
under_10.5
26.6%
over_12.5
58.5%
under_12.5
41.5%
over_14.5
43.4%
under_14.5
56.6%
team_away
over_10.5
55.9%
under_10.5
44.1%
over_12.5
39.1%
under_12.5
60.9%
over_14.5
25.1%
under_14.5
74.9%
most
home
60.7%
draw
5.5%
away
33.8%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.6%
away_+4.5
62.5%
home_-2.5
49.1%
away_+2.5
50.9%
home_-0.5
60.7%
away_+0.5
39.3%
home_+0.5
66.2%
away_-0.5
33.8%
home_+2.5
76.1%
away_-2.5
23.8%
home_+4.5
84.2%
away_-4.5
15.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.9%
under_6.5
30.1%
over_7.5
57.9%
under_7.5
42.1%
over_8.5
45.8%
under_8.5
54.2%
over_9.5
34.6%
under_9.5
65.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
62.8%
under_3.5
37.2%
over_4.5
46.1%
under_4.5
53.9%
over_5.5
31.4%
under_5.5
68.6%
team_away
over_3.5
52.0%
under_3.5
48.0%
over_4.5
34.9%
under_4.5
65.1%
over_5.5
21.5%
under_5.5
78.5%
most
home
51.7%
draw
12.3%
away
36.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.1%
away_+2.5
71.9%
home_-0.5
51.7%
away_+0.5
48.3%
home_+0.5
63.9%
away_-0.5
36.1%
home_+2.5
83.7%
away_-2.5
16.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
71.4%
under_2.5
28.6%
over_3.5
50.5%
under_3.5
49.5%
over_4.5
31.2%
under_4.5
68.8%
over_5.5
16.9%
under_5.5
83.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
52.3%
under_1.5
47.7%
over_2.5
25.7%
under_2.5
74.3%
team_away
over_1.5
57.8%
under_1.5
42.2%
over_2.5
30.7%
under_2.5
69.3%
most
home
35.5%
draw
21.5%
away
43.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
18.1%
away_+1.5
81.9%
home_-0.5
35.5%
away_+0.5
64.5%
home_+0.5
57.0%
away_-0.5
43.0%
home_+1.5
76.3%
away_-1.5
23.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
51.5%
under_20.5
48.5%
over_22.5
35.3%
under_22.5
64.7%
over_24.5
21.9%
under_24.5
78.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
61.0%
under_9.5
39.0%
over_11.5
37.9%
under_11.5
62.1%
over_13.5
19.5%
under_13.5
80.5%
team_away
over_9.5
56.6%
under_9.5
43.4%
over_11.5
33.5%
under_11.5
66.5%
over_13.5
16.3%
under_13.5
83.7%
most
home
49.0%
draw
8.4%
away
42.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.5%
away_+3.5
74.5%
home_-0.5
49.0%
away_+0.5
51.0%
home_+2.5
72.9%
away_-2.5
27.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
7.5%
no
92.5%
home
yes
2.7%
no
97.3%
away
yes
4.9%
no
95.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Hull
Everton