Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Manchester City42.4%
Win probability · fair 2.36
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely80.3%Fair 1.25
Draw or Manchester CityLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.8%Fair 1.57
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Liverpool and Manchester City almost evenly, Manchester City marginally on top at 42%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) No strong lean on goals (57% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Liverpool, 1 draws and 2 for Manchester City, averaging 2.4 goals a game. 3) For shots markets, Bradley Barcola is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Squad notes: Liverpool have Pecsi ruled out, Jaros ruled out, Bradley ruled out, Leoni ruled out. Form guide over the last six: Liverpool W2 D4 L0, Manchester City W5 D0 L1. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners44.2%@ 2.26
Manchester City win42.4%@ 2.36
Over 11.5 corners35.2%@ 2.84
Medium risk
Both teams to score60.3%@ 1.66
Liverpool or draw57.6%@ 1.74
Over 2.5 goals57.1%@ 1.75
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.47
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.39
2-1 correct score7.9%@ 12.59
Model vs market
Liverpool
32.9%
Draw
24.7%
Man City
42.4%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely80.3%Fair 1.25
Over 2.5Close call57.1%Fair 1.75
BTTS · YesLikely60.3%Fair 1.66
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.8%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.9%Fair 1.86
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.2%Fair 2.26
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.2%Fair 2.84
Most cornersLiverpool47.8%Manchester City42.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.0%Fair 1.51
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.7%Fair 1.83
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.3%Fair 2.31
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely32.7%Fair 3.06
Recent shot volume
Liverpool16.7 taken11.5 faced
Manchester City14.0 taken11.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Liverpool (5 games)
6.6 / 8.6
Manchester City (5 games)
6.8 / 7.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.580.3%2.557.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
LiverpoolDDWDW
Manchester CityWWWWW
Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 · 1 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Bradley BarcolaLiverpool · key player
To score29.1%3.44
1+ on target63.9%1.56
2+ shots63.3%1.58
Shots/90 3.06SoT/90 1.45Goals/90 0.49
Erling HaalandManchester City · key player
To score49.1%2.04
1+ on target81.0%1.23
2+ shots86.3%1.16
Shots/90 3.62SoT/90 1.72Goals/90 0.7
Alexander IsakLiverpool · in form
To score45.5%2.20
1+ on target68.8%1.45
2+ shots71.2%1.40
Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.42Goals/90 0.74
Antoine SemenyoManchester City · in form
To score31.5%3.17
1+ on target65.6%1.52
2+ shots73.2%1.37
Shots/90 2.68SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.39
Víctor MuñozLiverpool · in form
To score15.7%6.37
1+ on target55.2%1.81
2+ shots63.9%1.56
Shots/90 2.68SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.21
Enzo FernándezManchester City · in form
To score20.7%4.83
1+ on target51.5%1.94
2+ shots52.6%1.90
Shots/90 1.9SoT/90 0.78Goals/90 0.25
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Liverpool win2.94
Draw3.94
Manchester City win2.46
Both teams to score1.66
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.75
Over 3.5 goals2.88
Liverpool most2.94
Manchester City most2.46
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.48
Over 9.5 corners1.78
Over 10.5 corners2.23
Liverpool most2.09
Manchester City most2.37
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.05
Over 4.5 cards3.38
Over 5.5 cards6.34
Liverpool most3.04
Manchester City most2.20
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.39
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.69
Liverpool most2.23
Manchester City most2.33
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.83
Over 26.5 shots2.31
Over 28.5 shots3.06
Liverpool most1.77
Manchester City most2.64
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.87
Over 22.5 fouls2.70
Over 24.5 fouls4.30
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
PecsiLiverpoolOut0% to play
JarosLiverpoolOut0% to play
BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
RamsayLiverpoolOut0% to play
ChiesaLiverpoolOut0% to play
C.JonesLiverpoolOut0% to play
BajceticLiverpoolOut0% to play
EkitikéLiverpoolOut0% to play
ElliottLiverpoolOut0% to play
Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Alisson BeckerLiverpoolOut
AlleyneManchester CityOut0% to play
FodenManchester CitySuspended0% to play
RodrigoManchester CityOut0% to play
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Phil FodenManchester City8.4%27.2 xG+xA in 4,034 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
66.0%
Over 24.5
54.7%
Over 26.5
43.3%
Over 28.5
32.6%
Most: Liverpool
56.4%
Most: Manchester City
38.0%
Liverpool Over 13.2
48.3%
Manchester City Over 13.2
35.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
72.1%
Over 7.5
60.5%
Over 8.5
48.5%
Over 9.5
37.1%
Most: Liverpool
44.8%
Most: Manchester City
42.9%
Liverpool Over 4.2
43.1%
Manchester City Over 4.2
41.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
70.0%
Over 3.5
48.8%
Over 4.5
29.6%
Most: Liverpool
32.9%
Most: Manchester City
45.5%
Liverpool Over 1.8
49.1%
Manchester City Over 1.8
58.4%
Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Bradley Barcola
3.06
1.45
0.49
63.9%
63.3%
29.1%
Alexander Isak
3.04
1.42
0.74
68.8%
71.2%
45.5%
Víctor Muñoz
2.68
0.99
0.21
55.2%
63.9%
15.7%
Florian Wirtz
2.34
0.95
0.22
54.5%
57.8%
16.7%
Rio Ngumoha
2.65
0.88
0.29
23.8%
19.8%
8.6%
Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Erling Haaland
3.62
1.72
0.7
81.0%
86.3%
49.1%
Antoine Semenyo
2.68
1.1
0.39
65.6%
73.2%
31.5%
Enzo Fernández
1.9
0.78
0.25
51.5%
52.6%
20.7%
Mathis Cherki
2.36
0.78
0.32
41.1%
47.6%
19.5%
Jéremy Doku
1.93
0.67
0.23
33.1%
32.2%
12.9%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Liverpool clean sheet
20.9%
Manchester City clean sheet
24.3%
Liverpool win to nil
15.3%
Manchester City win to nil
18.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
34.0%
draw
25.4%
away
40.6%
double_chance
1X
59.4%
12
74.6%
X2
66.0%
dnb
home
45.6%
away
54.4%
btts
yes
60.3%
no
39.7%
clean_sheet
home
21.0%
away
24.4%
win_to_nil
home
15.3%
away
18.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.1%
home_by_2
10.1%
home_by_3plus
5.9%
away_by_1
20.1%
away_by_2
12.3%
away_by_3plus
8.2%
correct_score
0-0
5.7%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.2%
0-3
3.3%
0-4
1.3%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
6.6%
1-1
11.8%
1-2
8.8%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
5.1%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
3.2%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
2.4%
3-1
3.8%
3-2
2.9%
3-3
1.5%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
0.9%
4-1
1.3%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.3%
under_0.5
5.7%
over_1.5
80.3%
under_1.5
19.7%
over_2.5
57.2%
under_2.5
42.9%
over_3.5
34.8%
under_3.5
65.3%
over_4.5
18.1%
under_4.5
81.9%
over_5.5
8.2%
under_5.5
91.9%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
75.6%
under_0.5
24.4%
over_1.5
41.3%
under_1.5
58.7%
over_2.5
17.0%
under_2.5
83.0%
team_away
over_0.5
79.0%
under_0.5
21.0%
over_1.5
46.3%
under_1.5
53.7%
over_2.5
20.7%
under_2.5
79.3%
most
home
34.0%
draw
25.4%
away
40.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.9%
away_+2.5
94.2%
home_-1.5
15.9%
away_+1.5
84.1%
home_-0.5
34.0%
away_+0.5
66.0%
home_+0.5
59.4%
away_-0.5
40.6%
home_+1.5
79.5%
away_-1.5
20.5%
home_+2.5
91.8%
away_-2.5
8.2%
total_exact
exact_0
5.7%
exact_1
14.1%
exact_2
23.1%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.7%
exact_5
9.9%
exact_6
4.9%
exact_7plus
3.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
24.8%
draw
42.3%
away
32.9%
total
over_0.5
69.2%
under_0.5
30.8%
over_1.5
32.9%
under_1.5
67.1%
over_2.5
11.6%
under_2.5
88.4%
btts
yes
19.6%
no
80.4%
total_exact
exact_0
30.8%
exact_1
36.3%
exact_2
21.3%
exact_3
8.4%
exact_4plus
3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
29.5%
draw
32.8%
away
37.7%
total
over_0.5
83.4%
under_0.5
16.7%
over_1.5
53.5%
under_1.5
46.5%
over_2.5
26.7%
under_2.5
73.3%
btts
yes
34.8%
no
65.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
16.9%
H/D
5.0%
H/A
2.9%
D/H
12.5%
D/D
13.9%
D/A
15.9%
A/H
2.5%
A/D
5.3%
A/A
25.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
77.9%
under_7.5
22.1%
over_8.5
67.6%
under_8.5
32.4%
over_9.5
56.3%
under_9.5
43.7%
over_10.5
44.9%
under_10.5
55.1%
over_11.5
34.3%
under_11.5
65.7%
over_12.5
25.1%
under_12.5
74.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.1%
under_3.5
27.9%
over_4.5
57.3%
under_4.5
42.7%
over_5.5
42.7%
under_5.5
57.3%
team_away
over_3.5
68.5%
under_3.5
31.5%
over_4.5
53.0%
under_4.5
47.0%
over_5.5
38.4%
under_5.5
61.7%
most
home
47.9%
draw
9.9%
away
42.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.3%
away_+3.5
78.7%
home_-1.5
38.1%
away_+1.5
61.9%
home_-0.5
47.9%
away_+0.5
52.1%
home_+0.5
57.8%
away_-0.5
42.2%
home_+1.5
67.3%
away_-1.5
32.7%
home_+3.5
82.7%
away_-3.5
17.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
66.0%
under_22.5
34.0%
over_24.5
54.7%
under_24.5
45.3%
over_26.5
43.3%
under_26.5
56.7%
over_28.5
32.7%
under_28.5
67.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
71.4%
under_10.5
28.7%
over_12.5
56.1%
under_12.5
43.9%
over_14.5
40.9%
under_14.5
59.1%
team_away
over_10.5
59.5%
under_10.5
40.5%
over_12.5
42.8%
under_12.5
57.2%
over_14.5
28.3%
under_14.5
71.7%
most
home
56.4%
draw
5.7%
away
38.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
33.6%
away_+4.5
66.5%
home_-2.5
44.7%
away_+2.5
55.3%
home_-0.5
56.4%
away_+0.5
43.6%
home_+0.5
62.1%
away_-0.5
38.0%
home_+2.5
72.6%
away_-2.5
27.5%
home_+4.5
81.4%
away_-4.5
18.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
72.1%
under_6.5
27.9%
over_7.5
60.5%
under_7.5
39.5%
over_8.5
48.5%
under_8.5
51.5%
over_9.5
37.1%
under_9.5
62.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
60.1%
under_3.5
40.0%
over_4.5
43.1%
under_4.5
56.9%
over_5.5
28.7%
under_5.5
71.3%
team_away
over_3.5
58.8%
under_3.5
41.2%
over_4.5
41.8%
under_4.5
58.2%
over_5.5
27.5%
under_5.5
72.5%
most
home
44.8%
draw
12.3%
away
42.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
22.9%
away_+2.5
77.1%
home_-0.5
44.8%
away_+0.5
55.2%
home_+0.5
57.1%
away_-0.5
42.9%
home_+2.5
78.5%
away_-2.5
21.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
70.0%
under_2.5
30.0%
over_3.5
48.8%
under_3.5
51.2%
over_4.5
29.6%
under_4.5
70.4%
over_5.5
15.8%
under_5.5
84.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
49.1%
under_1.5
50.9%
over_2.5
23.0%
under_2.5
77.0%
team_away
over_1.5
58.4%
under_1.5
41.6%
over_2.5
31.3%
under_2.5
68.7%
most
home
32.9%
draw
21.6%
away
45.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
16.1%
away_+1.5
83.9%
home_-0.5
32.9%
away_+0.5
67.1%
home_+0.5
54.5%
away_-0.5
45.5%
home_+1.5
74.5%
away_-1.5
25.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
53.3%
under_20.5
46.7%
over_22.5
37.1%
under_22.5
62.9%
over_24.5
23.3%
under_24.5
76.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
65.1%
under_9.5
34.9%
over_11.5
42.3%
under_11.5
57.8%
over_13.5
22.8%
under_13.5
77.2%
team_away
over_9.5
54.7%
under_9.5
45.3%
over_11.5
31.7%
under_11.5
68.3%
over_13.5
15.1%
under_13.5
84.9%
most
home
53.5%
draw
8.2%
away
38.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.4%
away_+3.5
70.6%
home_-0.5
53.5%
away_+0.5
46.5%
home_+2.5
76.4%
away_-2.5
23.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
8.6%
no
91.4%
home
yes
2.9%
no
97.1%
away
yes
5.9%
no
94.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Liverpool
Manchester City