Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Liverpool have averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Manchester City 2.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.1% for over 2.5 and 80.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 0-1 | 7.4% |
| 1-0 | 6.6% |
| 0-2 | 6.2% |
| 2-2 | 6.2% |
| 0-0 | 5.7% |
Score probability grid
| Liverpool \ Manchester City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Liverpool goals, columns = Manchester City. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
60.3%Both Teams to Score57.1%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 57.1% for three or more goals and 80.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Manchester City favoured at 42.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 · 1 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model's most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Manchester City is 1-1 at 11.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
