Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Manchester City Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 75.3%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Manchester City are favoured at 42.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 1 | 18.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 10.1% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Manchester City by 1 | 20.1% |
| Manchester City by 2 | 12.3% |
| Manchester City by 3+ | 8.2% |
| Draw | 24.7% |
Goal handicap
| Liverpool line | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| -0.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| +0.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| +1.5 | 79.5% | 20.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Liverpool goals scored per game0.8Liverpool goals conceded per game2.6Manchester City goals scored per game1.0Manchester City goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Liverpool or Manchester City on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
60.3%Both Teams to Score57.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Manchester City are favoured at 42.4%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 · 1 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Liverpool vs Manchester City at 75.3%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Liverpool at 45.6% and Manchester City at 54.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,221 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
