Premier League
Arsenal vs 
Leeds Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.1% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. Head to head on cards, Leeds are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 20.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.7% | 83.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.3%
20.7%
62.5%
35.5%
Card handicap
| Arsenal line | Arsenal | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.3% | 86.7% |
| -0.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| +0.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.6% | 69.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Arsenal cards per game10.2Arsenal fouls per game1.4Leeds cards per game10.6Leeds fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Arsenal vs Leeds. It tips Leeds for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
50.1%Over 3.5 cards6.3%Any red card46.3%Arsenal over 1.5 cards62.5%Leeds over 1.5 cards45.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Arsenal over 1.5 cards sits at 46.3% and Leeds at 62.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.3% (Arsenal 1.7%, Leeds 4.6%). This season Arsenal have averaged 1.4 cards a game and Leeds 1.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.1% for Arsenal vs Leeds.
Will there be a red card in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model rates Leeds to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
