Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Newcastle46.4%
Win probability · fair 2.15
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely79.5%Fair 1.26
Draw or NewcastleLikely70.9%Fair 1.41
Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.2%Fair 1.63
Model read
▾
The model leans Newcastle at 46% when Coventry host Newcastle in the Premier League on 12 October 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Taiwo Awoniyi drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. • On the availability front, Newcastle have Jaouen a doubt, Burn ruled out, Livramento a doubt, A.Murphy ruled out. The run in: Coventry arrive W0 D0 L4, Newcastle W2 D2 L2. As a promoted side, Coventry carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Newcastle win46.4%@ 2.15
Over 10.5 corners41.4%@ 2.42
Over 11.5 corners32.6%@ 3.07
Medium risk
Both teams to score59.0%@ 1.69
Over 2.5 goals56.0%@ 1.79
Coventry or draw53.6%@ 1.87
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.42
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.82
0-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.22
Model vs market
Coventry
29.1%
Draw
24.5%
Newcastle
46.4%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely79.5%Fair 1.26
Over 2.5Close call56.0%Fair 1.79
BTTS · YesClose call59.0%Fair 1.69
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.2%Fair 1.63
Over 9.5 cornersClose call51.1%Fair 1.96
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely41.4%Fair 2.42
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.6%Fair 3.07
Most cornersCoventry51.9%Newcastle37.8%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.1%Fair 1.59
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.5%Fair 1.94
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.2%Fair 2.49
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.8%Fair 3.36
Recent shot volume
Coventry10.2 taken15.8 faced
Newcastle10.2 taken18.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Coventry (4 games)
6.2 / 4.0
Newcastle (4 games)
4.2 / 6.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.579.5%2.556.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.5%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Taiwo AwoniyiCoventry · key player
To score10.7%9.35
1+ on target25.6%3.91
2+ shots14.9%6.71
Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.44
Yoane WissaNewcastle · key player
To score26.7%3.75
1+ on target54.2%1.85
2+ shots55.9%1.79
Shots/90 2.59SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.43
Sidiki ChérifCoventry · in form
To score15.7%6.37
1+ on target40.5%2.47
2+ shots35.9%2.79
Shots/90 2.06SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.28
Matias Fernandez-PardoNewcastle · in form
To score20.3%4.93
1+ on target54.8%1.82
2+ shots51.7%1.93
Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.3
Loum TchaounaCoventry · in form
To score5.4%18.52
1+ on target26.0%3.85
2+ shots23.0%4.35
Shots/90 2.14SoT/90 0.71Goals/90 0.13
Harvey BarnesNewcastle · in form
To score19.1%5.24
1+ on target45.4%2.20
2+ shots51.7%1.93
Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.34
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Coventry win3.36
Draw3.94
Newcastle win2.23
Both teams to score1.70
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.78
Over 3.5 goals2.97
Coventry most3.36
Newcastle most2.23
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.88
Over 10.5 corners2.40
Coventry most1.92
Newcastle most2.64
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.36
Over 3.5 cards1.87
Over 4.5 cards2.95
Over 5.5 cards5.26
Coventry most2.89
Newcastle most2.25
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.05
Over 9.5 SoT2.68
Coventry most1.95
Newcastle most2.73
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.59
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.49
Over 28.5 shots3.36
Coventry most1.69
Newcastle most2.85
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.54
Over 22.5 fouls2.03
Over 24.5 fouls2.96
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
JaouenNewcastleDoubtful50% to play
BurnNewcastleOut0% to play
LivramentoNewcastleDoubtful75% to play
A.MurphyNewcastleOut0% to play
ElangaNewcastleOut0% to play
J.RamseyNewcastleOut0% to play
JoelintonNewcastleOut0% to play
WoltemadeNewcastleOut0% to play
OsulaNewcastleOut0% to play
NeaveNewcastleOut0% to play
DedićNewcastleOut0% to play
ShaharNewcastleOut0% to play
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Nick WoltemadeNewcastle14.1%31.0 xG+xA in 3,703 min
Jacob MurphyNewcastle10.5%22.9 xG+xA in 4,047 min
Anthony ElangaNewcastle7.2%15.8 xG+xA in 3,808 min
William OsulaNewcastle2.8%6.1 xG+xA in 941 min
Jacob RamseyNewcastle2.8%6.1 xG+xA in 2,964 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.0%
Over 24.5
51.5%
Over 26.5
40.2%
Over 28.5
29.8%
Most: Coventry
59.2%
Most: Newcastle
35.1%
Coventry Over 13.2
48.1%
Newcastle Over 13.2
31.0%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
72.3%
Over 7.5
60.7%
Over 8.5
48.7%
Over 9.5
37.4%
Most: Coventry
51.3%
Most: Newcastle
36.6%
Coventry Over 4.2
47.9%
Newcastle Over 4.2
37.2%
Cards
Over 2.5
73.7%
Over 3.5
53.4%
Over 4.5
34.0%
Most: Coventry
34.6%
Most: Newcastle
44.4%
Coventry Over 1.8
53.5%
Newcastle Over 1.8
60.6%
Coventry: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Taiwo Awoniyi
2.65
1.15
0.44
25.6%
14.9%
10.7%
Sidiki Chérif
2.06
0.85
0.28
40.5%
35.9%
15.7%
Loum Tchaouna
2.14
0.71
0.13
26.0%
23.0%
5.4%
Frank Onyeka
0.73
0.22
0
16.3%
11.9%
0.0%
Ethan Pinnock
0.37
0.17
0.08
14.5%
4.7%
7.1%
Newcastle: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Yoane Wissa
2.59
1.08
0.43
54.2%
55.9%
26.7%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo
2.29
1.05
0.3
54.8%
51.7%
20.3%
Harvey Barnes
2.78
0.97
0.34
45.4%
51.7%
19.1%
Bazoumana Touré
2.02
0.56
0.18
33.7%
43.6%
12.4%
Joe Willock
1.72
0.48
0.08
18.4%
16.6%
3.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Coventry clean sheet
19.5%
Newcastle clean sheet
27.3%
Coventry win to nil
13.5%
Newcastle win to nil
21.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
29.7%
draw
25.4%
away
44.9%
double_chance
1X
55.1%
12
74.6%
X2
70.3%
dnb
home
39.9%
away
60.1%
btts
yes
59.0%
no
41.0%
clean_sheet
home
19.5%
away
27.5%
win_to_nil
home
13.6%
away
21.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
16.8%
home_by_2
8.6%
home_by_3plus
4.4%
away_by_1
21.3%
away_by_2
13.7%
away_by_3plus
9.8%
correct_score
0-0
5.9%
0-1
8.2%
0-2
7.1%
0-3
3.9%
0-4
1.6%
0-5
0.5%
1-0
6.4%
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
5.0%
1-4
2.1%
1-5
0.7%
2-0
4.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
3.3%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
1.9%
3-1
3.2%
3-2
2.6%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.1%
under_0.5
5.9%
over_1.5
79.5%
under_1.5
20.5%
over_2.5
56.0%
under_2.5
44.0%
over_3.5
33.7%
under_3.5
66.3%
over_4.5
17.3%
under_4.5
82.7%
over_5.5
7.7%
under_5.5
92.3%
odd_even
odd
48.7%
even
51.3%
team_home
over_0.5
72.6%
under_0.5
27.5%
over_1.5
37.1%
under_1.5
62.9%
over_2.5
14.1%
under_2.5
85.9%
team_away
over_0.5
80.5%
under_0.5
19.5%
over_1.5
48.6%
under_1.5
51.4%
over_2.5
22.6%
under_2.5
77.4%
most
home
29.7%
draw
25.4%
away
44.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.4%
away_+2.5
95.6%
home_-1.5
13.0%
away_+1.5
87.0%
home_-0.5
29.7%
away_+0.5
70.3%
home_+0.5
55.1%
away_-0.5
44.9%
home_+1.5
76.4%
away_-1.5
23.6%
home_+2.5
90.2%
away_-2.5
9.8%
total_exact
exact_0
5.9%
exact_1
14.5%
exact_2
23.5%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.4%
exact_5
9.6%
exact_6
4.7%
exact_7plus
3.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
20.5%
draw
40.0%
away
39.6%
total
over_0.5
71.7%
under_0.5
28.3%
over_1.5
35.9%
under_1.5
64.1%
over_2.5
13.4%
under_2.5
86.6%
btts
yes
20.6%
no
79.4%
total_exact
exact_0
28.3%
exact_1
35.7%
exact_2
22.5%
exact_3
9.5%
exact_4plus
3.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
18.3%
draw
33.9%
away
47.8%
total
over_0.5
79.2%
under_0.5
20.8%
over_1.5
46.5%
under_1.5
53.5%
over_2.5
20.9%
under_2.5
79.1%
btts
yes
26.5%
no
73.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
12.0%
H/D
5.1%
H/A
3.4%
D/H
7.3%
D/D
13.5%
D/A
19.1%
A/H
1.2%
A/D
4.1%
A/A
34.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
75.4%
under_7.5
24.6%
over_8.5
64.7%
under_8.5
35.3%
over_9.5
53.1%
under_9.5
46.9%
over_10.5
41.7%
under_10.5
58.3%
over_11.5
31.3%
under_11.5
68.7%
over_12.5
22.6%
under_12.5
77.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.9%
under_3.5
27.1%
over_4.5
58.3%
under_4.5
41.7%
over_5.5
43.8%
under_5.5
56.2%
team_away
over_3.5
63.7%
under_3.5
36.3%
over_4.5
47.5%
under_4.5
52.5%
over_5.5
33.1%
under_5.5
66.9%
most
home
52.1%
draw
10.0%
away
37.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.0%
away_+3.5
76.0%
home_-1.5
42.0%
away_+1.5
58.0%
home_-0.5
52.1%
away_+0.5
47.9%
home_+0.5
62.1%
away_-0.5
37.9%
home_+1.5
71.3%
away_-1.5
28.7%
home_+3.5
85.7%
away_-3.5
14.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.1%
under_22.5
37.0%
over_24.5
51.5%
under_24.5
48.5%
over_26.5
40.2%
under_26.5
59.9%
over_28.5
29.8%
under_28.5
70.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
71.1%
under_10.5
28.9%
over_12.5
55.8%
under_12.5
44.2%
over_14.5
40.7%
under_14.5
59.3%
team_away
over_10.5
55.1%
under_10.5
44.9%
over_12.5
38.4%
under_12.5
61.6%
over_14.5
24.6%
under_14.5
75.4%
most
home
59.2%
draw
5.6%
away
35.1%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.1%
away_+4.5
63.9%
home_-2.5
47.5%
away_+2.5
52.5%
home_-0.5
59.2%
away_+0.5
40.8%
home_+0.5
64.9%
away_-0.5
35.1%
home_+2.5
75.1%
away_-2.5
24.9%
home_+4.5
83.4%
away_-4.5
16.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
72.3%
under_6.5
27.7%
over_7.5
60.7%
under_7.5
39.3%
over_8.5
48.7%
under_8.5
51.3%
over_9.5
37.4%
under_9.5
62.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
64.4%
under_3.5
35.6%
over_4.5
47.9%
under_4.5
52.1%
over_5.5
33.1%
under_5.5
66.9%
team_away
over_3.5
54.4%
under_3.5
45.7%
over_4.5
37.2%
under_4.5
62.8%
over_5.5
23.5%
under_5.5
76.5%
most
home
51.3%
draw
12.1%
away
36.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.2%
away_+2.5
71.8%
home_-0.5
51.3%
away_+0.5
48.7%
home_+0.5
63.4%
away_-0.5
36.6%
home_+2.5
83.1%
away_-2.5
17.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
73.7%
under_2.5
26.3%
over_3.5
53.4%
under_3.5
46.6%
over_4.5
34.0%
under_4.5
66.1%
over_5.5
19.0%
under_5.5
81.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
53.5%
under_1.5
46.5%
over_2.5
26.8%
under_2.5
73.3%
team_away
over_1.5
60.6%
under_1.5
39.4%
over_2.5
33.5%
under_2.5
66.5%
most
home
34.6%
draw
21.0%
away
44.4%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.7%
away_+1.5
82.3%
home_-0.5
34.6%
away_+0.5
65.5%
home_+0.5
55.6%
away_-0.5
44.4%
home_+1.5
74.8%
away_-1.5
25.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
65.1%
under_20.5
34.9%
over_22.5
49.2%
under_22.5
50.8%
over_24.5
33.8%
under_24.5
66.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
71.5%
under_9.5
28.5%
over_11.5
49.6%
under_11.5
50.4%
over_13.5
28.9%
under_13.5
71.1%
team_away
over_9.5
64.3%
under_9.5
35.7%
over_11.5
41.3%
under_11.5
58.7%
over_13.5
22.1%
under_13.5
77.9%
most
home
51.8%
draw
8.0%
away
40.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
28.6%
away_+3.5
71.4%
home_-0.5
51.8%
away_+0.5
48.2%
home_+2.5
74.3%
away_-2.5
25.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
11.8%
no
88.2%
home
yes
9.7%
no
90.3%
away
yes
2.3%
no
97.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Coventry
Newcastle