Premier League
Sunderland vs 
Brighton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 56.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.3% for over 2.5 to 21.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.8%. On the card count, Brighton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 20.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.6% | 78.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.3%
28.4%
63.4%
36.5%
Card handicap
| Sunderland line | Sunderland | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| +0.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| +1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.2% | 47.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 36.7% | 63.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.6Sunderland cards per game13.0Sunderland fouls per game2.4Brighton cards per game13.0Brighton fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sunderland vs Brighton. The model leans toward Brighton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
56.8%Over 3.5 cards15.0%Any red card55.3%Sunderland over 1.5 cards63.4%Brighton over 1.5 cards52.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sunderland over 1.5 cards sits at 55.3% and Brighton at 63.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.0% (Sunderland 13.9%, Brighton 1.2%). This season Sunderland have averaged 2.6 cards a game and Brighton 2.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.8% for Sunderland vs Brighton.
Will there be a red card in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model rates Brighton to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
