Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Bournemouth Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.3% for over 7.5 to 25.6% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. On the corner count, Chelsea are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.2%, with a level count at 9.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.6% | 74.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.5%
64.1%
50.0%
62.2%
45.9%
31.6%
Corner handicap
| Chelsea line | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| -1.5 | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| -0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +0.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
This season (2026/27)
6.6Chelsea corners won per game5.2Chelsea corners conceded per game4.2Bournemouth corners won per game4.6Bournemouth corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Chelsea.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
56.8%Over 9.5 corners64.1%Chelsea over 4.5 corners45.9%Bournemouth over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Chelsea over 4.5 corners sits at 64.1% and Bournemouth at 45.9%. This season Chelsea have averaged 6.6 corners won a game and Bournemouth 4.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 56.8% for Chelsea vs Bournemouth.
Which team will win the corner count in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates Chelsea to win the corner count at 57.2%, with a level count at 9.5%.
How many corners do Chelsea and Bournemouth average this season?
Chelsea have won 6.6 corners a game this season and Bournemouth 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
