Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Brentford Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.4% for over 7.5 to 23.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. On the corner count, Aston Villa are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.7%, with a level count at 9.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.5% | 76.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.0%
60.9%
46.5%
62.5%
46.2%
31.8%
Corner handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.7% | 55.4% |
| -0.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
This season (2026/27)
3.0Aston Villa corners won per game4.8Aston Villa corners conceded per game4.4Brentford corners won per game5.0Brentford corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Aston Villa.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
54.3%Over 9.5 corners60.9%Aston Villa over 4.5 corners46.2%Brentford over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Aston Villa over 4.5 corners sits at 60.9% and Brentford at 46.2%. This season Aston Villa have averaged 3.0 corners won a game and Brentford 4.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.3% for Aston Villa vs Brentford.
Which team will win the corner count in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates Aston Villa to win the corner count at 54.7%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How many corners do Aston Villa and Brentford average this season?
Aston Villa have won 3.0 corners a game this season and Brentford 4.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
